'Healthy' Discussion About Tua and Dolphins

Not sure if you've heard, but the Miami Dolphins are going to be really good in 2023 ... if Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy.

And by "not sure if you've heard," we mean not sure if you've heard 50 times this offseason or 100 or 200, depending on how often you check out social media or the various national sports talk show.

Truthfully, it's become kind of old. And overstated like crazy.

There are so many layers to it actually, we don't quite know where to begin.

'TEAM NEEDS ITS QUARTERBACK' ... NO DUH!

The first point that needs to be made in this entire discussion is that it seems it's only the Dolphins and Tua who are getting the "if he stays healthy" treatment, and no other team.

Like, the Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders ... if Patrick Mahomes stays healthy, right? The Bengals are Super Bowl contenders ... if Joe Burrow stays healthy, no? How about Josh Allen and the Bills? Doesn't that apply to them also?

Yes, we get it, Tua has a cloud over his head because of the concussion issues he went through last season and the idea he's one hit away from his career being in jeopardy. But couldn't the argument be made that last year was a fluke when it comes to this issue and also that the law of averages is in his corner when it comes to injuries?

Also, didn't Burrow himself suffer a season-ending knee injury at one point in his career? (Quick check: yes, yes he did.) So why not a "if Joe Burrow stays healthy" comment when talking about the Bengals?

WHAT ABOUT THE REST OF THE DOLPHINS ROSTER?

With all due respect to Tagovailoa's impressive 2022 performance — he led the NFL in passer rating and was in the MVP conversation through November — it was Mahomes, Burrow and Allen who were the three initial selections to the Pro Bowl, this after Tagovailoa won the fan vote, meaning that players and coaches left him behind in their own balloting.

Regardless on where you stand on Tua and where he ranks among NFL quarterbacks, it's pretty universally accepted that he would at least stand behind those three.

So wouldn't an injury to any of those three be more damaging to the Chiefs, Bengals or Bills than a Tua injury to the Dolphins?

Another factor is a contending team's ability to withstand a quarterback injury, and this is where overall quality of the roster comes into play.

And last we checked, most analysts have given the Dolphins roster very high marks, with ESPN Prognosticator Mike Clay ranking Miami second overall behind only the Philadelphia Eagles.

Updated 2023 NFL Unit Grades pic.twitter.com/YZsiwdijeF
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) June 1, 2023

Would anybody suggest the Eagles are doomed if something were to happen to QB Jalen Hurts in 2023, no matter how well he played in their Super Bowl loss against Kansas City?

The Dolphins have top-flight talent at a lot of different positions other than quarterback, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb, Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey, just to mention seven.

MANY EXAMPLES OF TEAMS WINNING WITH BACKUP QBs

The San Francisco 49ers are another team that's got a really, really good roster, and last we checked they got within one game of the Super Bowl last season not with their second quarterback of the season but their third.

And while we can accept that Brock Purdy maybe was more NFL-ready last season than the Dolphins' own seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson, let's also not pretend he's necessarily on his way to becoming another Mahomes or Burrow or Allen.

This was about the team succeeding, which is a good thing to have in the quintessential team sport that is football.

But that was just a fluke, right? An outlier: A one-time thing?

Huh, no.

We've got three more examples of teams not only going far into the playoffs but actually winning the Super Bowl, and to make it even more meaningful they involve teams that lost their starting quarterback at different stages of the season.

Going in reverse chronological order, we'll go first with the 2017 Eagles, who were cruising along with Carson Wentz enjoying an MVP-type season before he was injured in a Week 14 game against the Rams. Enter Nick Foles, who to that point had a career passer rating under 90.

The Eagles defeated New England in the Super Bowl.

Next we'll go to the 1999 St. Louis Rams, whose season appeared to end before it started when veteran QB Trent Green went down with a preseason knee injury.

Enter a little-known backup by the name of Kurt Warner, whose only regular season action to that point had come with the Iowa Barnstormers and the Amsterdam Admirals — of the Arena Football League and NFL Europe.

The Rams defeated the Tennessee Titans in the Super Bowl.

And we save the best for last, the one that should shame any Dolphins fan who gave up after Tagovailoa was sidelined last season or who will give up if something happen in 2023.

The 1972 Dolphins.

If we need to remind those not up on their NFL or Dolphins history, the Dolphins were 4-0 when Bob Griese suffered a broken ankle against the San Diego Chargers at the Orange Bowl and veteran Earl Morrall took over.

The Dolphins completed their perfect regular season, and Griese returned to the lineup in the AFC Championship Game at Pittsburgh — home field was awarded on a rotation basis between divisions at that time — after a lackluster first half that ended tied at 7-7.

The Dolphins won that game and the Super Bowl against Washington with Griese at quarterback, but they easily could have won those games with Morrall.

THE 2022 DOLPHINS WITHOUT TUA

This has been addressed before, but it needs to be mentioned again because, yes, context matters.

The Dolphins were 8-5 in the games that Tagovailoa started and only 1-3 in the other four, but we need to remember that the season finale against the Jets was the only other started and finished by the same quarterback.

So one could make the point that the Dolphins last season were 9-4 in games where they didn't have to make a QB change because of injury, but 0-4 in the games where they had to — and that includes the Thursday night game at Cincinnati when Tua started and Teddy Bridgewater finished.

It's also important to note that the Dolphins defense failed to create a single turnover in any of the four games that Tua didn't play. Not a single one.

This is where the expected improvement of the defense comes into play because the team likely won't be so dependent on the offense this season.

An example of why that matters so much is the playoff loss at Buffalo, where the defense forced three turnovers — including Zach Sieler's fumble return for a touchdown — to almost pull off the upset at Buffalo.

And that loss at Buffalo, with Thompson starting at quarterback, came on a day when the offense badly struggled: 231 total yards, 4-for-16 in third-down conversions, two turnovers, 2.1 yards per rushing attempt, four sacks allowed, 40 percent completion percentage.

Again, the Dolphins lost by three points to a team that went 13-3 in the regular season. And that was because the defense contributed.

Finally, let's address the notion that Tyreek Hill can't produce without Tua at quarterback — because it's false.

Hill had 160 receiving yards in the game at Cincinnati, and 109 of those came after Bridgewater replaced Tua with about 5 minutes left in the second quarter. That projects to 186 over a full game.

Hill also had 177 receiving yards in the game against Minnesota when Thompson started and was replaced by Bridgewater early in the second quarter. He got 166 yards from Bridgewater after he came three minutes into the second quarter. That projects to 237 yards over a full game.

In the other three games that Tua missed, Hill averaged only 40 receiving yards, but those of two games came against the Jets, who finished third in the NFL in pass defense.

Bottom line: Yes, Hill still can put up big numbers regardless of who's playing quarterback.

FINAL THOUGHT

Look, this whole exercise wasn't meant to diminish Tua or what he accomplished last season.

Tagovailoa also just might be the perfect quarterback for the kind of offense that Mike McDaniel is running because of his ability to quickly get rid of the ball and make accurate throws in the short and intermediate areas to allow Hill and Jaylen Waddle to use their speed to maximum effectiveness.

But this idea — with all due respect to Hill — that the Dolphins will only go as far as Tua will take them is over the top.

The Dolphins have assembled key piece after key piece in recent years and if they're still that reliant on their quarterback at this stage, then they've done something wrong.

It says here the Dolphins should be competitive no matter what.

Are they better with Tua at quarterback? Obviously.

Are they done without Tua? Absolutely not.

And now can we please stop with the "Miami Dolphins blank blank if Tua stays healthy."