Third-and-1 Should Be First Priority for Dolphins
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The difference between a heartbreaking loss and a gigantic win for the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on Saturday night came down to a few painful plays.
It might not be stretching things to suggest it was a few third-and-1 plays specifically that determined the outcome in the 32-29 loss against the Buffalo Bills in a game the Dolphins easily could have won.
And it brought to light what's been a major problem for the Dolphins all season, the inability to get the job done in those third-and-1 situations.
Against the Bills, the Dolphins proved they could compete with the best the AFC — maybe even the NFL — has to offer and lost more than anything because they left points on the field in a way the Bills didn't.
And the first place to look at the difference here is third-and-1.
Yes, third-and-1.
No counting Josh Allen's kneel-down before Tyler Bass' game-winning field goal, Buffalo was 3-for-3 on third-and-1, the three plays coming on drives that ended in touchdowns.
Conversely, the Dolphins were 1-for-3 on two separate drives that ended in field goals.
And it was a failed third-and-1 that may have been the turning point in the game, the Dolphins wasting a glorious opportunity to almost put the game away after Jaelan Phillips' strip-sack gave them the ball in Buffalo territory with a 26-21 lead.
You remember the play, right? Third-and-1 from the Buffalo 27, Tua Tagovailoa drops back to pass, faces immediate pressure and floats the ball to tight end Durham Smythe as he's coming across the field behind the line of scrimmage, only to have Bills defenders lined up to bring him down.
The result was a 2-yard loss that forced the Dolphins to settle for a field goal and a 29-21 lead, which Buffalo then erased with a touchdown and two-point conversion.
Would they have been able to come back from a 33-21 decision had the Dolphins been able to convert that third-and-1 and cash in on the Phillips-produced turnover with a touchdown instead of a field goal?
We'll never know because the Dolphins failed on third-and-1 ... as they have too often this season.
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DOLPHINS DEAD LAST IN THE NFL
While the Dolphins have put up good numbers offensive under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel, their third-and-1 stats are pretty ugly.
-- The Dolphins are last in the NFL in third-and-1 conversion rate at 42.1 percent, going 8-for-19. The Kansas City Chiefs are the only other team in the league below the 50 percent mark — though their 45.8 percent showing hasn't kept them from winning the AFC West title for a seventh consecutive season.
-- For comparison purposes, the league leader is third-and-1 conversion rate is Chicago at 90.9, following by Dallas at 88.2, Pittsburgh at 88.0 and the New York Giants at 86.7.
-- The Dolphins have converted a league-low eight third-and-1 situation, though the caveat there is that their 19 attempts are fifth-fewest in the league.
-- While the offensive numbers in 2021 weren't nearly as good as they are last year, the Dolphins were efficient on third-and-1, going 22-for-34 for a 64.7 percent conversion rate.
-- And this just might be the most amazing of all, the Dolphins scored a touchdown on a drive where they faced a third-and-1 only once all season — and that came when Chase Edmonds scored on a 1-yard run on third-and-1 in the first game against Buffalo.
WHAT HAS GONE WRONG ON THIRD DOWN?
While the passing game probably is the biggest reason the Dolphins currently occupy a playoff position in the AFC standings, it's also the biggest factor in the team's third-and-1 failures.
And it's an issue both of execution and over-reliance.
Take the Buffalo game, for example.
On the Dolphins' second possession after the teams traded punts, fullback Alec Ingold converted a third-and-1 with a 2-yard run after taking an inside handoff.
The Dolphins later faced on the same drive a third-and-1 from the Buffalo 11-yard line, but this time had Tua drop back to pass. But he couldn't find an open receiver and former Dolphins edge defender Shaq Lawson eventually dropped him for a sack — Miami only was able to still get a field goal out of the drive because Smythe recovered Tua's fumble when he was hit.
That was the third time a Dolphins quarterback — Tua twice, Teddy Bridgewater once — was sacked in a third-and-1 situation.
Overall, the Dolphins have called for a pass eight times on third-and-1 this season. They've converted once, and that was in the fourth quarter of the Cleveland game when they already led 30-17 and Tua connected with Jaylen Waddle for a 15-yard gain. They also got a defensive pass interference call on a Skylar Thompson pass against the Jets, thought the drive ended with a punt.
Along with the two sacks, Tua has completed 3 of 5 passes on third-and-1, but two of them actually lost yardage — a completion to Tyreek Hill went for minus-1 yard in the opener against New England.
With eight pass attempts on 19 third-and-1's, it certainly can be argued — and it certainly showed up on social media after the Buffalo game — that the Dolphins need to run the ball more often in these situations.
The Dolphins have run the ball 11 times on third-and-1, getting the first down seven times for a 63.6 success rate. That figure ranks 26th in the NFL, so it's not like we're talking here about the Cowboys, who are 28-for-31 in getting first downs when running on third-and-1.
But are the Dolphins passing too much?
Their run percentage on third-and-1 is at 57.9, which puts them 28th in the league, ahead only of the Chiefs (45.8), Packers (47.6), Jets (52.0) and Vikings (52.2).
Bottom line is the Dolphins haven't been very good either running or passing the ball on third-and-1.
Getting that fixed should be priority number 1 for the Dolphins.
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