Kelly: Dolphins Shouldn't Consider Trading Pick 51
To trade down, or stay where you are and make the pick?
That is the annual question most teams debate in their draft rooms for days leading up to the three days of the NFL draft and discuss when the offers are made during the draft.
It is also a topic fan bases and the media obsess about.
Most drafts I’m usually a big advocate for the trade down, subscribing to the theory that more picks increase a team’s chances of hitting on players.
But that’s if the Miami Dolphins can find a dance partner with the right offer, and if there will be targeted players still available when a trade down is proposed.
For years I’ve held a theory that the more young and cheap players a team has ,the better off they will be in the long run. It facilitates team building, which is why I’m usually supportive of a trade down.
Problem is, there is no clear-cut answer on what to do because there are too many variables.
How strong is the draft talent wise, especially when it comes to positions of need?
How many draft picks does your team have? And so on, and so on.
Is a run taking place at a position of need, which usually is the motivator behind a trade up.
SHORTAGE OF DRAFT PICKS COULD FORCE MIAMI'S HAND
Even if your team has a shortfall of draft picks, like the one Miami faces this year with just four picks — Pick 51 (second round), 84 (third round), 197 (sixth round) and 238 (seventh round) — it doesn’t mean it’s a wise approach to trade down for more rolls of the dice.
Pick 51, which is Miami’s best shot at adding a rookie contributor — if not starter— is too valuable for the Dolphins to move.
Pick 51 is a premium asset because it will produce a top 50 talent in the 2023 draft class (because somebody always gets overdrafted). Maybe that’s a top five tight end, or a defensive tackle who fits Miami’s scheme. Or it could be a rookie starting center, or a top-rated safety.
And here’s the kicker: That draftee will be signed to an affordable contract for the next four years.
That is why the Dolphins can’t give up their shot at landing the next Jevon Holland (selected 36th in 2021), Robert Hunt (selected 39th in 2020), Mike Gesicki (selected 42nd in 2018), Xavien Howard (selected 38th in 2016) or Jarvis Landry (selected 63rd in 2014) simply because they need bodies to fill out the roster.
The waiver wire can do that.
If Miami needs roster depth, trade pick Number 84, moving down in the third round for more third-day selections. Or trade a future fourth-, fifth- and/or sixth-round pick for a third-day selection in this watered-down draft.
But don’t give away the one decent chess piece Miami possesses in this draft.
TRADE HISTORY NOT ON MIAMI'S SIDE
The last time the Dolphins traded down in the second round was 2019 when they sent pick No. 48 and a fourth round pick to the New Orleans Saints for pick No. 62, a sixth-round pick, and a 2020 second-round selection.
Miami traded the 62nd pick and a fifth-round pick to Arizona for quarterback Josh Rosen, who was a colossal bust, and used the 2020 second-round pick to select defensive tackle Raekwon Davis the next year.
Miami had agreed to send Arizona a second-round pick for Rosen the night before the second day of the 2019 draft, so moving down and acquiring the future second-round selection was gravy.
The smarter move would have been to not trade for Rosen, which I told everyone who would listen was a mistake, but let’s stick to the topic.
The best time to avoid a trade down is when you have a conviction about a player.
In 2018, the Dolphins had what I’ve been told was a pretty desirable offer on the table to trade down from pick No. 11, and it caused so much of a draft-room disagreement all the decision-makers had to leave the room to hash it out.
I can’t remember the team trying to come up, but based on multiple conversations with people in that draft room, Mike Tannenbaum, Steve Ross, Adam Gase and Chris Grier argued about whether to accept the offer to move down or keep pick No. 11 and select safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
According to sources, during that conversation Ross proposed using the 2018 late-first-round pick being offered to select quarterback Lamar Jackson, but that proposal was shot down quickly by Gase, who didn’t want to coach Jackson because it would require drastic changes to his offense. If Gase was going to take a quarterback in that draft, it was going to be Baker Mayfield or Josh Allen, not Jackson.
This story stands out to me most because of Ross advocating for Jackson, but it also stands out because of the reason the trade was never consummated.
None of the team's decision-makers liked the options available if Miami moved down. So Grier pulled rank as general manager, the person in charge of the draft, and told everyone the team was sticking to their initial game plan and would select Fitzpatrick, who has turned into a three-time Pro Bowl selection.
Fitzpatrick spent only one season with the Dolphins because he forced a trade to Pittsburgh early into his second season when his relationship with then-coach Brian Flores soured.
That was unfortunate, but the lesson we should learn from this trauma is identify five to 10 players who would be ideal fits, puzzle pieces, dream selections for your team at pick No. 51, and only move down if they are all gone.
SECOND-ROUND PICKS PROVIDE GREAT VALUE
Second-round picks are the best commodities in the draft because they provide phenomenal bang for your buck. For instance, pick No. 51 will receive a four-year contract worth $7.1 million, and the only thing that raises that salary is playing-time escalators.
Either way, pick No. 51 will be a bargain if the player becomes a reliable starter.
Now, all this is contingent on the player selected being good, and there are no guarantees on this. But I’d rather take my chances with a top 50 talent than a top 100 talent.
Shoot your shot now!
The way this roster is constructed, Miami has a two-year window to win a Super Bowl with the talent that presently is on the roster.
Adding one of the draft’s upper-echelon players — even if it isn’t at a position of need — who could develop into a premium player will help.
That means trading down from pick No. 51 only should be considered if what’s left on the board isn’t appealing.
