Breaking Down Tua Betting Props
In case you haven't heard, the Tua Tagovailoa era in Miami will begin Sunday when he makes his first NFL start for the Dolphins against the Los Angeles Rams at Hard Rock Stadium.
To call it a much-anticipated event is an overwhelming understatement, both from a fan perspective, media standpoint and simply football curiosity.
But there's also the gambling aspect, and based on betting props the expectation appears to be that Tagovailoa will have a successful first outing.
The over/under for Tagovailoa against the Rams is a 245 1/2, according to BetOnline (www.BetOnline.ag). The over/under for his rushing yardage total has been set at 14 1/2 and his touchdown passes at 1 1/2.
When it comes to interceptions, the feeling is that Tua won't throw many of those because the only two betting props deal with half an interception. The odds that Tua will not throw a pick are set at 6/5 (betting $5 to win $6), while the odds for one or more interceptions are 5/8.
In his first NFL action, Tagovailoa completed both of his pass attempts for 9 yards in the late stages of the Dolphins' 24-0 victory against the New York Jets in Week 6.
Tua will become the 22nd quarterback to start for the Dolphins since Dan Marino retired in March of 2000, though Damon Huard already had started for Miami before then.
RELATED: Post-Marino Dolphins QB and Their First Start
Of the other 21, six threw for more than 245 yards in the first Dolphins start, topped by Brock Osweiler's 380 yards in a 31-28 overtime victory against the Chicago Bears in 2018. The others were Sage Rosenfels in 2004 (264 yards), Gus Frerotte in 2005 (275), Daunte Culpepper in 2006 (262) and Chad Pennington in 2008 (251).
Four have thrown more than one touchdown pass in their Dolphins starting debut: Brian Griese in 2003 with three, Frerotte, Pennington and Osweiler.
Of the 20 aforementioned quarterbacks, eight did not throw a pick in their first start for the Dolphins: Jay Fiedler in 2000, Griese, Trent Green and John Beck in 2007, Pennington, Chad Henne in 2009, Jay Cutler in 2017 and Josh Rosen in 2019.
From a team standpoint, the Dolphins have seen their odds of winning the AFC East, AFC or even Super Bowl improve over the last week.
Their odds of winning the Super Bowl have gone from 200-1 to 125-1; of winning the AFC from 75-1 to 60-1; and of winning the AFC East from 7-1 to 13-2.
But that is not related to Tua being named the new starting quarterback, according to BetOnline.ag SportsBook manager Adam Burns.
“We were as shocked as anyone that Tua was coming in for a red hot Fitzpatrick and I think we view it as any other rookie QB coming in; time will tell," Burns said. "The Dolphins definitely have a chance in the AFC East now that the Pats are faltering and maybe the Bills are not as good as people thought after their last few performances. We have not really made any drastic adjustments to their odds just yet and I am curious to see how this week goes for Tua."
