Dolphins Updated Playoff Picture Through Week 16
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The Los Angeles Chargers became the fifth AFC team to clinch a playoff berth when they defeated the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night, leaving one wild-card spot available.
The Miami Dolphins remain on track to get that lone available playoff spot — aside from the fourth seed, which will go to the winner of the Tennessee at Jacksonville game in Week 18 no matter what happens this week — and could clinch as early as next weekend.
But their playoff chances are down to 62 percent, per FiveThirtyEight, down from 72 before their 26-20 loss against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday.
THE DOLPHINS SCENARIOS
The Dolphins picture in terms of making or not making the playoffs has come down to this as they head into their final two games against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Week 17 and at home against the New York Jets in Week 18 holding a one-game lead for seventh place with their 8-7 record:
-- The Dolphins obviously will make the playoffs by going 2-0 to finish 10-7.
-- The Dolphins will clinch the a playoff berth Sunday with a victory against New England and a New York Jets loss at Seattle because then the only team that could tie them at 9-8 would become Pittsburgh, which Miami defeated in Week 7.
-- The Dolphins will make the playoffs with a victory against the Jets in Week 18 even after losing against New England IF the Patriots lose at Buffalo in Week 18.
-- The Dolphins cannot make the playoffs in any scenario if they lose their final two games or if they go 1-1 and are involved in a tiebreaker with another AFC East team at 9-8 — and understand that the first step in any conference tiebreaker is to settle division tiebreakers.
-- If the Dolphins and Jets both finish 9-8, the Jets would win that tiebreaker by virtue of a season sweep.
-- If the Dolphins and Patriots both finish 9-8, the Patriots would win that tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record (4-2 to 3-3).
-- If the Dolphins, Patriots and Jets somehow all end up with an 8-9 record, then all sorts of scenarios open up because Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and the AFC South runner-up also could end up with that same record — but New England would be the AFC East team that would get involved in tiebreakers with other teams outside the division by virtue of their sweep of the Jets (with the other two head-to-head series then becoming splits).
-- One other important note: If the Jets win at Seattle on Sunday, the Dolphins will have to defeat them in Week 18 no matter what else happens.
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FOR EVEN MORE COVERAGE ON THE MIAMI DOLPHINS, CHECK OUT SPORTS ILLUSTRATED'S MIAMI DOLPHINS PAGE ON SI.COM
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THE SEEDING POSSIBILITIES
As strange as it may seem given that they're not even guaranteed to make the playoffs, the Dolphins still could end up with the No. 5 seed — a first-round matchup against Tennessee or Jacksonville — if things fall right.
Of course, that would require the Dolphins to win their final two games and then get some help.
Baltimore currently holds the No. 5 spot with a 10-5 record, followed by the Chargers at 9-6 — and the Dolphins defeated the Ravens and lost against the Chargers.
If the Ravens lose their final two games — at home against Pittsburgh and at Cincinnati — to finish with a 10-7 record, and the Chargers lose their last two (vs. Rams, at Denver) to finish at 9-8, the Dolphins would win that head-to-head tiebreaker because of their Week 2 victory at Baltimore.
The other scenario giving the Dolphins the No. 5 seed is a three-way tie at 10-7, with the Chargers loss coming at Denver in Week 18.
Because the Chargers didn't face the Ravens, the head-to-head tiebreaker wouldn't apply and it would come down to conference record, where the Dolphins would get the nod by finishing at 8-4, compared to 7-5 for L.A. and 6-6 for Baltimore.
But one win by Baltimore and one win by the Chargers would lock the Dolphins into the seventh seed if they get in.
THE DOLPHINS FINAL SCENARIOS
-- Win at NE + win vs. NYJ = make the playoffs
-- Win at NE + SEA win over NYJ in Week 17 = make the playoffs
-- Win vs. NYJ + BUF win over NE in Week 18 = make the playoffs
-- Win at NE + lose vs. NYJ + NYJ win over SEA in Week 17 = out of playoffs
-- Lose at NE + win vs. NYJ + NE win over BUF in Week 18 = out of playoffs
-- Lose at NE + lose vs. NYJ = out of playoffs
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