What the Thursday Result Means for the Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins gained a lot of clarity as far as what needs to happen for their slim playoff chances to materialize this season, and it starts with winning their final three games out.

Very simply, the Dolphins will be mathematically eliminated Sunday if they lose against the San Francisco 49ers at Hard Rock Stadium.

And while it's difficult to imagine them doing that after the poor performance (offensively) at Houston last Sunday, let's remember the three final opponents are the San Francisco 49ers down to their fourth running back and likely without their All-Pro left tackle again (Trent Williams) and possibly their best defensive player (Nick Bosa); the Cleveland Browns and their third different quarterback (Dorian Thompson-Robinson) and Nick Chubb on IR; and the New York Jets in potentially Aaron Rodgers' final game with the team to close a miserably failed experiment.

So, yeah, the Dolphins absolutely could win out.

As was always the case, though, the Dolphins will need help, except it's now clear what they need.

And what they need is any TWO of these scenarios (along with winning out):

-- The Indianapolis Colts losing at least one of their final three games

-- The Baltimore Ravens losing their final three games

-- The Los Angeles Chargers losing their final two games

-- The Denver Broncos losing their final two games

In short, the Dolphins would own the tiebreaker advantage over any AFC team they could match at 9-8 because of a better conference record, except for the Colts, who would finish the same conference record as the Dolphins but get the edge because of their head-to-head victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 7.

As crazy as it sounds, the Dolphins would wind up with the No. 5 seed if they win out and ALL four of the aforementioned scenarions played out. They would wind up with the No. 6 seed if three of them played out, as long as the Colts losing at least once was one of them.

Yes, that's a bit crazy.

In terms of realistic expectations, it's debatable (if not doubtful) the Dolphins will get the help they need, assuming they do their part.

Denver has two tough matchups at Cincinnati and against the Kansas City Chiefs, but it could end up being the Chiefs' JV team if they wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC before Week 18. This means rooting hard for the Buffalo Bills to keep winning and for the Chiefs to lose either at home against the Houston Texans on Saturday or at Pittsburgh on Christmas Day.

Baltimore has two really tough games coming up against Houston and Kansas City, but their finale is at home against the Cleveland Browns.

The Chargers have the easiest schedule of the nine-win teams with road games against the three-win Patriots and the two-win Raiders.

And the Colts close out at home against Tennessee, at the New York Giants, and at Jacksonville. All it takes for Indy to be eliminated is one loss, but the Colts will be clear favorites in all three games.

So probably the two best chances for the Dolphins would seem to be the Colts slipping in one of their final games and Denver losing its final two games, maybe while feeling the aftershock of blowing a 21-10 lead in their showdown against the Chargers on Thursday night.

But, yes, it's still a long sot.

THE 2025 SCHEDULE

The Chargers' victory gave them a sweep of the Broncos this season, which means they'll finish ahead of them in the AFC West if they end up tied.

With the Chargers having the much easier schedule over the final two weeks, it's relatively safe to suggest they indeed will finish second in the division behind the (yawn) Kansas City. Chiefs.

What that means for the Dolphins is their undetermined home game against the AFC West, against the team that will finish in the same position in the division standings, most likely will feature another round of the 2020 first-round QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Dolphins are two games ahead of the New York Jets for second place in the AFC West, and can clinch that spot this weekend with a win and a Jets loss at home against the Los Angeles Rams. The Jets play at Buffalo in Week 17.

The Dolphins' other two undetermined games will be at home gainst the NFC East team that finishes in the same spot in its division, at this time the Washington Commanders, and on the road against the AFC South team in the division position, at this time the Colts.