Another Reason to Push Back Against Dolphins Doom and Gloom Predictions

In case you haven't heard by now, the Miami Dolphins aren't expecting to be very good in 2026.

That's the consensus from power rankings, over/under totals, position group rankings and commentary from around the nation. Even Troy Aikman, who remains a consultant with the Dolphins, said as much this week during a Dallas radio interview when he pointed out he won't be calling any Miami games on Monday Night Football this year because "The Dolphins are not expected to be very good this year."

The major reasons the Dolphins are expected to suffer in 2026 include all that dead cap space, the loss of so many high-profile players, and the unusually large number of rookies expected to either start or play a considerable role.

It's clearly a rebuilding project not unlike that of 2019 in Brian Flores' first year as head coach.

The Dolphins used a lot of rookies that season, and they're expected to do the same in 2026, but there's a big difference.

Not every rookie is created equal.

DOLPHINS TALENT BASE MUCH BETTER NOW

The 2019 Dolphins wound up having 13 rookies start at least one game that season, with a combined total of 76 starts.

Three rookies started at least half the games: defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, guard Michael Deiter and cornerback Nick Needham.

The Dolphins had five rookies listed on the first team on the team's first depth chart of 2026 if we include linebacker Jacob Rodriguez, who was part of an either/or listing with Tyrel Dodson at one of the linebacker spots.

The others were Kadyn Proctor, Caleb Douglas, Trey Moore and Chris Johnson.

Other Dolphins rookies who very well might end up starting a game or two (or three or more) at some point in 2026 would have to include tight end Will Kacmarek, wide receiver Chris Bell, maybe linebacker Kyle Louis, maybe wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr. and maybe safety Michael Taaffe.

The likelihood that the number of rookie starts in 2026 exceeds that 76 mark is pretty good, and those starts have a good chance of being a lot more impactful.

Here's the stat that really stands out:

Of the 13 rookies who made starts for the Dolphins in 2019, only four of them were draft picks and only two were selected before the fifth rounds (Christian Wilkins and Michael Deiter).

The 2026 Dolphins, meanwhile, had eight draft picks in the first four rounds — Kadyn Proctor, Chris Johnson, Jacob Rodriguez, Caleb Douglas, Will Kacmarek, Chris Bell, Trey Moore and Kyle Louis.

The likelihood is those players have greater future potential than the nine rookie free agents who started games seven years ago and also likely will perform better as rookies.

Also don't forget that the 2019 Dolphins went 5-4 in their final nine games after gaining some footing under Flores with a team that was so heavy on unheralded rookies.

The 2026 Dolphins are much more likely to be able to begin the season as a cohesive unit because of all the high draft picks and a much clearer quarterback situation, where Malik Willis is the guy this season while the Dolphins bounced between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen early in 2019 before Flores decided he had seen enough of Rosen.

We're not suggesting with this analysis that the Dolphins are ready for a 10-win season because there are still too many holes on the roster and the depth is borderline nonexistent, but their season also might not be the unmitigated disaster so many are projecting.

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