5 Biggest Reasons for Skepticism That Dolphins Finish Strong

The Miami Dolphins have a real chance to put a run together down the stretch of the 2025 season. The team has won its last two games and has two games it should win against the Saints in Week 13 and the Jets in Week 14 coming up.

Wins in those games would push the Dolphins to 6-7. However, their playoff chances would remain relatively small at that point.

We’re here to give you five reasons for skepticism that the Dolphins can actually pull it off. If you’re looking for more reasons to be optimistic, we covered those, too.

1. Tua Tagovailoa’s Regression

Tua Tagovailoa has taken a step back this season. He’s tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (13), 24th in passer rating (88.1), and 23rd in EPA per dropback (0.01).

Tua hasn’t been horrible this season, but in the context of his career, there’s no doubt he’s not playing up to his standards. This has led an already limited Dolphins’ passing game to get even more limited.

The team’s quick, intermediate, middle-of-the-field throws that made the offense so potent in 2022 and 2023 have almost completely evaporated. Miami can only stretch the field when they get into heavy formations and get a 1-on-1 with Jaylen Waddle.

There are a lot of factors for that, but Tua is a big piece of the puzzle. He doesn’t have the mobility to create openings outside of structure, and he doesn’t have the arm talent to challenge two-high defenses downfield.

Even the team’s win against Washington featured Tua’s limitations. The sack he took in the red zone is a play a lot of QBs throw a touchdown on — Dulcich was coming wide open on the corner route.

Remember Bobby Wagner’s PBU at the goal line? It was a great play by Wagner, but Tua also had plenty of room to lead Waddle across the end zone instead of forcing him to make a sliding catch on his back shoulder.

The Dolphins can win with Tua still, but if they run into a defense that can contain their new-look running game, this version of Tua is even more in trouble than in previous seasons.

2. The Dolphins’ Lack of Secondary Receivers

Tua’s regression is a big hurdle for the Dolphins’ passing game, but so is the lack of receiver depth.

Jaylen Waddle has proven himself to be a reliable WR1, but the Dolphins are way too reliant on manufactured touches to De’Von Achane and the tight ends after that.

There will come a point when Miami’s running game isn’t taking a team by surprise, and Waddle isn’t getting open. The Dolphins will need someone else to win a 1-on-1 matchup in a big spot.

Achane and Greg Dulcich are nice players, but they shouldn’t be the second option for any passing offense. Malik Washington, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cedrick Wilson get the most reps at receiver outside of Waddle.

That’s not exactly an inspiring group. There’s a chance Darren Waller returns from injury, which would help, but he’s a limited player at this point in his career.

Miami has done an excellent job scheming around this issue since Tyreek Hill’s injury, but this is usually not sustainable in the long term.

3. Miami’s Defense Still Has Tackling Problems

While the Dolphins’ defense has played better in recent weeks, it’s still an incredibly flawed unit. We covered why its improvement against the run should give fans optimism, but there’s another side to that coin.

Miami still can’t tackle anyone. The Dolphins are third in the NFL in average yards allowed after contact, a ranking that has remained unchanged as Miami’s defense improved from Weeks 7 through 11.

The Dolphins' 3.54 yards allowed post-contact from Weeks 7-11 is just not good enough. The Commanders got away from running the ball last week, but other teams with better running backs won’t.

Miami is getting into the backfield a lot more often, and the overall rushing numbers look better, but the underlying metrics still show a team that is flawed. When you’re talking about trying to climb out of a 4-7 hole, that is a reason for concern.

4. Still Haven’t Beaten Good Teams

The Dolphins deserve a ton of credit for finally ending their losing streak against the Buffalo Bills back in Week 10. They played hard and had a tremendous game plan.

That said, this team’s other wins have come against teams starting Justin Fields, Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota. Fields was benched this week, Cousins was the backup until Penix got hurt again this past weekend, and Mariota is Washington’s backup.

If they beat the Saints and Jets, that would add Tyler Shough and Tyrod Taylor to the list. Outside of Josh Allen, Miami would not have beaten a quarterback who was a Week 1 starter or didn’t get benched for performance.

All seven of Miami’s losses have come against teams with winning records heading into Week 12, except for the Ravens, who almost undoubtedly will finish the year as a winning team.

You can only play the team in front of you, and the Dolphins showed some progress against the Bills. However, it will take more than one win to wipe out multiple years of struggling to beat big teams.

5. The Schedule Won’t Be Easy Forever

The Dolphins have two games they should win out of the bye, but their schedule gets a lot harder after that. Their final four games include three teams firmly in the playoff picture (Patriots, Buccaneers, Steelers) and the Bengals.

Cincinnati isn’t a great team, but it might be getting Joe Burrow back sooner than expected. That’s still a winnable game, but beating Burrow is a lot harder than beating Joe Flacco.

As for the other games, Tampa Bay is in the throes of a divisional race and is a better team than Miami. Aaron Rodgers might be banged up for Pittsburgh, but its defense is more than good enough to win games.

New England is 9-2 and might not have something to play for in Week 18, but we’ll see. There’s a chance it can secure home-field advantage with a win against Miami.

Miami should get back to 6-7, but that’s when the real test will begin.

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