Dolphins Sunday Mailbag: Should We Have Seen Tua's Regression Coming?

Second part of a Week 18 Miami Dolphins On SI mailbag:

From Damian Werts:

Mr. P, got a quick question for you, hopefully it makes the mailbag in time. If not, maybe you could discuss on the podcast? What on God's green earth happened to Sanders? I know it didn't end up mattering; Patterson's been great. But still, how does a kicker get a season-ending injury in warmups?

Hey Damian, the injury specifically was to the right hip and no detail has been provided about what happened beyond the timing of it, but it clearly turned out to be a pretty significant injury because the Dolphins ended up paying Sanders’ full 2025 salary while he was on IR the whole year. I have to imagine there was some underlying issue with the hip all along and it was a matter of time before it surfaced. Sorry, that’s the best I can do for an answer.

From Thomas Hudson:

Here is a question I have about McDaniel's future, straight out of the way back machine. Long ago there was a young QB named John Elway. Many people were very excited about his ability to stage a comeback late in the game. And someone, I forget who, pointed out that you couldn't come back if you did not get behind in the first place. So why do people seem more inclined to give McDaniel credit for the late runs in 2024 and 2025 than baking him for going 2-6 and 2-7 to begin with? Two seasons in a row, the Dolphins come out of camp completely unprepared for the season. I don't see how a coach survives that. You have said in the past you thought he should get something of a pass in 2024 because he lost his QB. But shouldn't he be held responsible for relying on Skylar Thompson? That sure seemed like his call.

Hey Thomas, I/we have mentioned consistently that the Dolphins starting 2-6 and 2-7 the past two seasons is a major problem, adding that the team’s ability to rebound could be viewed by Stephen Ross as a positive for McDaniel. And the lack of procuring a better option at backup quarterback the previous two seasons absolutely falls on McDaniel to a large degree, if not entirely.

From Steve:

Another mailbag question Alain, if not today, maybe the future. How often does it work when a team has struggled for a couple seasons and decides to bring the coach back? I’m sure there are examples, but how often has it been successful? Try not to include rebuilds.

Hey Steve, funny you should ask because I wrote a story about a weeks back examining the NFL coaches who had losing records in their third and fourth seasons with a team and how many were retained. McDaniel has become the 21st NFL head coach to fall into that category, and of the first 20 only four were brought back for a fifth season. Of those four, only Steve Mariucci produced a winning record that fifth season (with the 49ers), while both Jeff Fisher with the Rams and David Shula with the Bengals were fired during that fifth season.

From Marc Stevens:

Hi Alain, you mentioned Jimmy Johnson as a possible consideration for GM. I agreed with Perkins that he's probably enjoying his retirement too much. But I think if Ross would part with a couple million and have a 3 or 4 week early spring camp with Johnson and McDaniel one-on-one could do wonders for McDaniel. Just to help polish the rough edges of McDaniel's head coaching as well as what he needs to look for on the rest of the team. What do you think about that?

Hey Marc, first off, to set the record straight, I never mentioned Johnson as a potential GM candidate; what I said was that maybe he was approached to be a consultant for the GM search, passed, but then suggested Aikman. I don’t think money motivates Johnson these days, so even the idea of three or four weeks of work to help out in any capacity seems unrealistic to me. The man has earned his full-time retirement in the Keys; let’s let him enjoy it.

From Michael LaVigne:

I feel like Tua’s play & reports in camp were positive. Did you see this regression on the horizon?

Hey Michael, Tua did look fine in camp, pretty much like other camps. There always were concerns about this season because of the way last year ended with the hip issues that caused him to miss the final two games. But I’m not sure anybody saw coming the clear regression we’ve seen. There are some (cough, cough), though, who warned that the absence of Tyreek Hill (not just for one game) would create big problems because of how it would congest the shorter areas of the field that opponents left open before because they were so worried about getting beat deep.

From Kevin D’Agrella:

If you were tasked with selecting the next GM of Miami, which potential candidate jumps out at you as the best option for the Dolphins? Taking into account the cap nightmare we'll find ourselves in.

Hey Kevin, the cap nightmare has nothing to do with who’s hired as GM because this is all about finding a guy who has proven he can find good players. So for me I look at the organization who have been great at drafting in recent years, such as the Eagles and maybe Alec Halaby or the Rams and maybe John McKay or the Lions and maybe Ray Agnew.

From Earlwithan_E:

Quinn Ewers’ first start went like I thought it would and his second start went more like I hoped it would. What do you think we should expect for his 3rd start considering they are on the road and how the Pats have performed against similar competition? Thanks, Alain for your coverage of the team.

Thanks Earle, I’m curious to see how Ewers performs in this one, but he’s got a few things going against him that could limit his success. For one, he’s likely to be without De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle, this after Darren Waller was placed on IR. Second, New England is welcoming back top defensive lineman Milton Williams off IR. Bottom line, I wouldn’t expect a ton from the passing game, so the question will be how well Ewers can manage the game in this one.

From Hopsnelson:

Where does McDaniel end up if he gets fired? I bet Raiders to run that offense with a rookie QB & 2nd year Jentry.

If McDaniel does end up getting fired, I do believe he’d get some offers to become an OC and the Raiders certainly would be a possibility, though they have to settle their head coach situation first amid reports that Pete Carroll will be one-and-done.

From Dan Ford:

Do you subscribe to the theory that Stephen Ross theoretically deciding to retain Mike McDaniel would not delete the GM talent pool?

Hey Dan, there’s zero question in my mind that at least one GM candidate would turn down an offer for wanting to decide on his head coach, so there would be at least some kind of effect, though probably not a very big one.

From SALTY TUA QB #3:

Does McDaniel get fired on Monday morning?

My feeling has been that McDaniel has been on the upper side of 50-50 to return for a fifth season, even after the losses against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, and I’m still leaning the same way.

From TdotDolfan:

Alain, what’s the biggest thing you’ll be watching for in the Dolphins–Patriots game on Sunday?

At this stage of the season, for me, it’s continuing to watch Quinn Ewers to see how he handles different situations and adversity. I don’t think anything else is a close second.

From Thee Dolphins Dum Dum:

Why does it seem like everyone is out on selecting QBs this year? Mahomes, Allen and Jackson were all selected around or behind where the Dolphins will likely select this year. Please set the record straight if I have anything wrong.

Hey Dana, no, you’re right about not needing a top 5 pick to land that kind of prospect because Allen went 7, Mahomes went 10 and Jackson went 32. The problem here is that those three guys had special traits that were obvious in college, and I don’t know that anybody coming into the 2026 draft has anything even remotely close to that. I also think that NFL teams have learned since Allen, Mahomes and Jackson were drafted in 2017-18 that those guys with the crazy traits need to get selected really, really early. Having said all that, I wouldn’t dismiss the idea of the Dolphins taking a QB early in the 2026 draft, but they also have so many needs elsewhere that forcing a QB who’s not a difference-maker just for the sake of it doesn’t make sense.

From Adnas:

How does Brandon Shore escape blame from all the awful contracts? Especially Tua. Somehow gets more power? He should be fired next.

Shore is the Dolphins’ capologist, but that doesn’t mean he decides who gets a new contract and for how much. Remember that after he got his extension, Tua thanked Mike McDaniel at a press conference for going to bat for him in getting the deal done. In fact, the idea that Shore would be getting more power suggests that he didn’t have enough before and that maybe his opinions that should have been listened to actually weren’t.

From Dreaded Heathen:

What does the hiring of Troy Aikman mean for Mike McDaniel?

I’m pretty confident is saying I don’t believe it’ll make much of a difference, beyond the fact that reports indicate that Aikman was hired before he made those comments in the fourth quarter of the Pittsburgh game. I think Stephen Ross will make (or has made) the decision on McDaniel on his own or with input from people already inside the organization.

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