Kelly: Will Dolphins' Christian Wilkins Accept A Deal That Doesn't Measure Up To DT Peers?

One of the many lessons I’ve learned in my decade plus of covering the NFL is that players often get in their feelings when you start discussing their paychecks.

Repeatedly bring up how much a high-end player is being paid and he’ll likely catch feelings.

Debate whether a player is worth [insert a price] he and his camp are negotiating for, and they'll likely become sensitive.

Discuss whether or not [insert player’s name] is likely going to be shakedown by the team, or potentially released, and he and his family will likely get hot and bothered.

To be transparent, this has ended a couple of friendly relationships between yours truly and Miami Dolphins players.

Mike Pouncey once blew up at me inside the Dolphins locker room, in front of players and the media, because I predicted that Dolphins czar Mike Tannenbaum and then head coach Adam Gase were going to either shake him down for a pay cut, or release the center when the 2017 season ended in a month.

Pouncey, a Pro Bowl talent, was angry that I even put that possibility into the universal, but wouldn’t you know the Dolphins did exactly what I predicted.

And my purge predictions are usually correct.

Allow me to get to my point.

I’m the biggest advocate for players getting their money, and taking the team for whatever they can when they have their leverage.

I know how one sided the NFL business is, and I typically want to see players win whenever they can.

However, I’m a realist, and a straight shooter, which is why I have to point out when players are approaching challenges to their pursuit of the money.

I’ve done so repeatedly regarding Christian Wilkins and it has led to some people getting in their feelings about it.

Dolphins D-line history isn't encouraging

While it would be the right approach for the Dolphins to extend Wilkins, locking the team captain up, making him one of the foundational pieces to build around for years to come, I have doubts they will.

I've shared those doubts, and will do so again.

First off, the Dolphins don’t have a substantive history of paying defensive linemen, especially defensive linemen they’ve drafted.

Miami hasn’t re-signed a defensive lineman they’ve drafted to a multi-year extension since Paul Soliai back in 2011, and that deal got done a year after they used the franchise tag on the nose tackle.

Miami let Jared Odrick and Kendall Langford leave as free agents. Olivier Vernon walked after the Dolphins tagging him, then removed it because they weren't willing to match the New York Giants' deal. And the Dolphins also let Davon Godchaux sign with the Patriots as a free agent in 2019.

That's more than a decade of being stingy with defensive tackles.

I say all of this to point out that history isn’t on Wilkins’ side.

Neither is the escalating price of the defensive tackle position, which has surged like the price of used cars during the pandemic.

NFL DTs getting pace-setting deals

Jeffery Simmons got a five-year, $104.7 million deal from the Tennessee Titans this offseason. He’ll make $19.7 million a year over the next three seasons, which is all I count for now because that’s when the guaranteed money expires. Simmons also has a chance to earn $1.25 million in per game roster bonuses ($24,500 per game).

While Quinnen Williams, who signed an extension last week, might have landed the biggest deal (five-year, $105 million) for a defensive tackle from the New York Jets, he’ll earn $18.5 million a year over the next three seasons. That doesn’t include the $2.7 million he can earn in per game roster bonuses ($53,000 per game) the next three seasons.

Washington's Daron Payne has the best deal of all the recently extended defensive tackles. He's making $22.1M a season over the first 3 years of the four-year, $90 million deal, which guaranteed him $60 million. He has the potential to earn another $1M for per game roster bonuses ($20K per game).

New York Giants nose tackle Dexter Lawrence (five-years, $100.7 million deal will pay him $18.9 million a season for the next three years, with the potential to earn an extra $2 million in per game bonuses in 2024 and 2025 ($58,823 a game).

Ed Oliver took the most team-friendly deal, signing a five-year contract with the Buffalo Bills that is reportedly worth $78.7 million. He’s guaranteed $45 million, and will make $46 million over the first three years if he capitalizes on two $500,000 workout bonuses in 2024 and 2025. That averages out to $15.42 million a season during that three-year span.

Oliver can also make another $840,000 in those seasons from per game roster bonuses ($24,705 per game).

Is franchise tag realistic for Wilkins?

If you’re doing the math at home, the recent deals hint that Wilkins’ new contract will be somewhere between $16-19 million in real money over first three years.

When Wilkins’ fifth-year option ($10.7 million this season) is added to the franchise tag, which is projected to be $20.8 million for defensive tackles, the Dolphins would be paying him $31.5 million over the next two seasons if they take that route.

Divide that total by two and it comes up to $15.75 million a season. Round that up and we’re looking at $16 million a season.

That’s probably within the ballpark of what the Dolphins are offering on an extension for Wilkins, which explains why one hasn’t been finalized yet, as the start of training camp approaches.

Just a guess, but Wilkins would probably rather bet on himself, gambling on Miami not being in position to use the franchise tag on him in 2024 since the Dolphins are projected to be $32 million over the cap for 2024 already, than take a deal that doesn’t measure up to his peers.