Kelly: Dolphins Window to Win It All Closes Soon

NFL teams typically work in windows of three to four years that often start with the scorched-earth rebuild.

Maybe it’s a new general manager who's the first domino to fall, or a head coach. And often it's the quarterback.

Sometimes it’s all three.

In the Dolphins’ case, the rebuild began in 2019 when Mike Tannenbaum was stripped of his power as the team’s top executive, and that honor/responsibility/power was handed to General Manager Chris Grier, who had been in that role since 2016 but never was the franchise's top executive in the football side of the organization.

Brian Flores replaced Adam Gase as the head coach that offseason, and three years later Mike McDaniel replaced him following Flores' troublesome divorce from the franchise.

But since 2019, when Grier took over and Miami hired Flores and traded away quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the Dolphins have been building an organization with a young nucleus, and the goal is to make the Dolphins a championship contender for years to come.

Miami might have changed coaches, but not course.

That's why it's healthy to acknowledge that 2023 is season five of this rebuild, which means it’s payoff or pivot time.

The way Miami has conducted business the past two offseasons, adding important but expensive pieces like Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey, a financial strain is on the horizon because it's going to be extremely expensive to keep this collection of talent together past 2023.

Miami already is $32 million over the projected salary cap for 2024, and there are 29 impending free agents like Raekwon Davis, Robert Hunt and Brandon Jones looking for their first big payday.

The Dolphins are one of eight teams over the projected salary cap for 2024, and of that group only the Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers can view themselves as teams realistically trying advance to the Super Bowl.

Even though the Dolphins have roughly $12 million in cap space heading into training camp in late July, every decision made with the team’s finances — whether it’s pursuing Pro Bowl tailback Dalvin Cook, or signing a veteran linebacker or defensive lineman — has a domino cascade that will fall in 2024 and beyond.

However, owner Steve Ross has never cried poverty, and usually has written big checks to bail Miami out of some tough spots. So why start worrying about tomorrow's bills when you can live for today by focused on maximizing this season, this talent, this roster?

The window is now, this season, and if 2023 fails for whatever reason, whether it’s because of a quarterback injury, offensive line struggles, an offensive or defensive regression, a full-fledged reset is inevitable because it’s unlikely Ross will write big checks to push forward with an 8-, 9-win team.

Five years of one rebuild is enough to determine if the franchise is headed in the right direction, and if the people selecting and coaching the talent know what they're doing.

Everyone associated with the Dolphins organization knows this, which is why we’re witnessing a couple of impending free agents jockey for a new deal this offseason, pressing to get their slice of the pie before it’s time for the franchise to sign Tua Tagovailoa to a massive contract that likely will eat up 20 percent of the salary cap based on the deals Daniel Jones ($40 million a season), Jalen Hurts ($51 million a season) and Lamar Jackson ($52 million a season) got this offseason from their respective teams.

That is what’s on the horizon if this season goes as planned, which would indicate that the rebuild is on track.

Miami can find a way to press forward for one more season by restructuring players, and handing out longer deals that feature a substantial amount of signing bonus money, but it needs to be worth Ross’ time, effort and the financial commitment.

Ross always has been willing to spend the money, making the financial investment to keep the talent, or to upgrade the facility. But at some point he needs to draw a line in the sand.

There must be a motivating factor to inspire him, and anything short of the franchise’s first playoff win since 2000 likely won't do it.

The point of a rebuild is to create a new foundation.

The Dolphins have done the past four years without any excuses made.

This season will dictate whether it’s a solid one, something worth keeping together, or if this is a clunker that needs to be sent to be reset and sent to the junk yard.