Kelly: Dolphins Having Draft Remorse for Going Tua over Herbert?

How much further along would the Miami Dolphins franchise be if they had just picked the other quarterback in 2020?

And I'm not talking about properly tanking for Joe Burrow, which was a painful misstep that contributed to the nasty breakup with former head coach Brian Flores.

That's a different sore subject.

Let's discuss the one most hardcore Miami Dolphins fans will be whispering about this Sunday as Miami opens the season against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Even the biggest cheerleader for Tua Tagovailoa, the most rabid Dolphins fan — maybe even a Tuanon member — has to admit that deep down in a secret compartment of their brain they occasional wonder what could have been, what would have been if Miami passed on Tagovailoa, an Alabama legend who was rehabbing a surgically repaired hip, and selected an unpolished but promising Justin Herbert with the fifth pick in the 2020 NFL draft.

Time to be honest about QB decision

[Raising my hand slowly]

I’ll admit it. I was in the "Tua has to be the pick" camp in the months leading up to that critical 2020 draft, because of Tagovailoa's collegiate body of work, his pedigree, which was far superior to Herbert's.

Tagovailoa had accuracy, pocket presence, and a moxie to him that Herbert lacked.

Herbert reminded me too much of Ryan Tannehill. He looked the part, but there was something missing.

As much as I like and respect Tagovailoa, and still believe he's destined for greatness, I have to admit I was wrong to advocate for Tagovailoa over Herbert because the Los Angeles Chargers quarterback has turned out to be this era’s Dan Marino.

The arm is undeniable. The athleticism he possesses is top shelf.

“The guy is just highly, highly talented,” Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said Thursday as he prepared his unit to defend the NFL’s second-highest-paid player after the Chargers gave Herbert a five-year, $262.5 million extension in July (and before the Bengals gave Joe Burrow an even bigger deal).

“Obviously he’s got great size, got a big arm, but yet he throws the ball with touch. He throws a very catchable ball. He can throw it to anywhere on the field – short, intermediate, deep and real deep,” Fangio continued. “And [he’s] very elusive. He’s a good scrambler. When he pulls it down and runs, he’s fast. He’s a complete quarterback.”

[Deep sigh]

Size. Big arm, Elusive. Scrambler. Those are all things Tagovailoa is not.

Tannenbaum warned Dolphins fans

Fangio left off durable too, which is Tagovailoa’s biggest concern.

That's the reason Miami hasn't given him a hefty extension like the one Herbert got this summer, and Burrow got this week.

It's also the reason some NFL insiders, people like Mike Tannenbaum, the former Dolphins vice president of football operations, could be heard screaming from the mountaintop that Herbert should have been selected ahead of Tagovailoa.

But that crowd was in the minority back then when it came down to who the draft experts and insiders preferred. Tagovailoa was viewed by most as the more polished quarterback. Herbert had the most upside. And here we are.

If the Dolphins had gone the unconventional route — picking Herbert instead of Tagovailoa — these two quarterbacks would simply be swapping teams because Los Angeles openly admitted they planned to take whatever quarterback Miami passed on.

I have a hard time believing Herbert’s presence in 2020 and 2021 would have fixed Miami’s troublesome offensive line play, or jump-started the NFL's worst run game. And by my calculations, both of those issues, along with Flores’ challenging personality, led to Flores’ ousting.

That’s why I’m convinced the Dolphins would be exactly where the franchise is today, just with a much more expensive quarterback.

More than one great QB can be in a class

This doesn't mean Tagovailoa is a bust, or won't have a career worthy of respect, if not praise.

Three Hall of Famers — John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino — came out of the 1983 draft class, and Marino was the last of six quarterbacks taken in the first round that year.

Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethisberger all were taken in the same 2004 draft class, and all three likely are headed to the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. I'm pretty sure Giants, Chargers and Steelers fans didn't have buyer's remorse about the quarterback their franchise selected, and built around.

That's why Dolphins fans shouldn't either because Tagovailoa, who was the NFL's top-rated passer in the 2022 season, already has proven he has what it takes to be among the NFL's quarterback elites.

But if we're going to have a moment of transparency, let's admit we can't help but wonder what might have been if Herbert was in aqua and orange.

"Justin is a totally different player than me," Tagovailoa said this week. "Justin can throw the deep ball as far as anyone in this league. There’s things that Justin does that I look at and go, “Oh my gosh.' Sometimes you can’t help but fan over those plays. But we’re just different in our styles, and who we are as football players."

Let's just hope Tagovailoa's differences, his style, his strengths, his persona and his leadership help the Dolphins end up at the desired destination so we can feel good about the choice this franchise made in 2020.

We can't spent this era living with a lifetime of regret like the teams that took Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien instead of Marino back in 1983.

Those are the types of decisions that haunt a franchise. Let's hope the decision of Tagovailoa over Herbert doesn't eventually join that conversation.