Anatomy of a Turnaround: Making History

When they defeated the New York Giants at Hard Rock Stadium, the Miami Dolphins became the second team in NFL history to follow a seven-game losing streak with a five-game winning streak, underscoring just how unusual and dramatic their turnaround has been.

Of course, every analyst — both local and national — has looked for a turning point for the Dolphins, with the talking points including a Brian Flores speech, a soft schedule, the defense coming alive and Tua Tagovailoa being back healthy and playing the best football of his NFL career.

As with everything, including the Dolphins’ forgettable start, it’s a combination of things that have gotten Miami to a 6-7 record and inclusion into playoff picture discussions just five weeks after the idea would have been quickly dismissed and ridiculed.

The winning streak came as a surprise given the 1-7 start, but wouldn’t have been so unfathomable before the season because it has coincided with the Dolphins arriving at the soft portion of their schedule. The Dolphins’ five victories have come against teams with a combined record of 22-38, with Baltimore the only one of the five opponents with a winning mark.

But, bad opponents or not, a win is a win, and the Dolphins’ winning streak currently stands as the second-longest in the NFL behind New England’s seven-game run.

During their winning streak, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by an average of 23-11, and that right there should provide an important clue as to perhaps the biggest reason.

The actually scoring average for the Dolphins in the victories against Houston, Baltimore, the Jets, Carolina and the Giants is 23.2, and that figure would rank 17th over the full season.

The average of 11 points allowed would be first in the NFL, comfortably ahead of the current league-best mark of 15.4 points by the New England Patriots.

But we also can’t understate the role the offense has played in helping the Dolphins play complementary football, a term often overused but in this case absolutely applicable.

What the offense has done is help avoid putting the defense in bad situations, primarily by avoiding turnovers.

Except for the first game of the streak against Houston, when the Dolphins found a way to win despite turning the ball over five times, the offense has committed only two turnovers in the past four games — a Tagovailoa interception against the Jets and a fumble off an errant shotgun snap by Austin Reiter against Carolina.

The ability to avoid turnovers is a big reason the Dolphins have played with the lead practically the entire winning streak.

DOLPHINS PLAYING AHEAD

Here’s the most telling stat of all: The Dolphins have trailed only twice during their winning streak, never by more than three points, never in the second half, and have been behind a grand total of 25:35 in playing time. That’s 25 minutes, 35 seconds in five games, which is 300 minutes — by my calculations, that’s 8.5 percent.

For the record, the two deficits came after Baltimore took a 3-0 lead in the first quarter Nov. 11 until the Dolphins tied the score in the second quarter, and after the Giants took a 3-0 lead early in the second quarter this past Sunday.

GREAT TURNAROUNDS IN DOLPHINS HISTORY

Truth be told, this looks an awful lot like what happened in 2020, albeit supersized.

Remember that the Dolphins started 1-3 last season before reeling off five consecutive victories to put themselves in playoff contention.

It’s the fifth time in franchise history the Dolphins have a losing streak of least three games followed by a winning streak of three or more games:

In 1970, they lost three, then won six;

In 2005, they lost three, then won five;

In 2006, they lost four, then won four;

In 2011, they lost seven, then won three.

The other NFL team to follow a seven-game losing streak with a long losing streak was the 1994 New York Giants, who actually won their final six games after the seven-game skid followed a 3-0 start.

The Dolphins can match the lose seven, win six distinction with a victory against the New York Jets on Dec. 19 and would have an NFL first with two victories coming off their bye.