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Rewriting Dolphins History: What if the Peyton Manning Free Agency Sweepstakes Had Ended Differently?

Peyton Manning's decision to sign with the Denver Broncos when he was a free agent had a ripple effect around the league and the Miami Dolphins were among the teams affected
Alain Poupart|
Rewriting Dolphins History: What if the Peyton Manning Free Agency Sweepstakes Had Ended Differently?
Rewriting Dolphins History: What if the Peyton Manning Free Agency Sweepstakes Had Ended Differently?

Luke Kuechly in a Miami Dolphins uniform? How about Stephon Gilmore? And Alex Smith as the quarterback through most of the 2010s.

Those all would have been realistic possibilities for the Dolphins had Peyton Manning made a different free agent decision eight springs ago.

It's Peyton Manning week at Sports Illustrated, and the retrospective of his illustrious career included a look back at the battle for his services when he became a free agent in the spring of 2012 after he was released by the Indianapolis Colts.

The Dolphins naturally were interested in Manning's services, though they never were considered serious contenders. But Manning's decision to sign with the Denver Broncos had a ripple effect and ended up having a significant impact on the rest of the spring for the Dolphins and even for years beyond that.

Allow us to explain:

The Dolphins were coming off a 6-10 finish in 2011 with Matt Moore leading the team to a 6-3 finish after he replaced injured starter Chad Henne at quarterback.

But neither Moore nor Henne were viewed as the long-term answer, so the Dolphins clearly were quarterback shopping in the spring of 2012 after Joe Philbin was hired as head coach.

When the Dolphins realized Manning wasn't coming to Miami, they turned their attention to a couple of other free agents, Matt Flynn and Alex Smith.

They lost out on Flynn, who went from Green Bay to Seattle, although he never started a game for the Seahawks because he was beaten out by a 2012 third-round pick by the name of Russell Wilson.

As for Smith, this is where Manning factors in.

Smith, who had been the first overall pick in the 2005 draft one spot before the Dolphins took running back Ronnie Brown, was coming off a really good season for the 49ers. He had started all 16 games and led the team to a 13-3 record and a berth in the NFC Championship Game, where the 49ers lost in overtime against the New York Giants.

But the 49ers apparently weren't all in on Smith because they had taken Colin Kaepernick — yes, that Colin Kaepernick — in the second round of the 2011 draft and then decided to make a big push for Manning.

As longtime NFL writer Peter King explained in a podcast, head coach Jim Harbaugh and assistant Greg Roman donned Duke University hoodies to remain low-key while watching Manning work out at the school to show he was recovered from the neck surgery that had sidelined him for all of the 2011 season.

The 49ers' interest in Manning prompted Smith to explore his free agency options, which brought him to Miami for a visit.

Smith, however, reportedly was merely looking at the Dolphins as a fall-back option in case Manning did end up in San Francisco.

The day after Smith's visit with the Dolphins, Manning announced he was signing with the Broncos. The Dolphins, moving on from Smith, announced they had signed veteran free agent David Garrard.

A few days later, Smith signed a new three-year contract with the 49ers. He would start the first nine games of the 2012 season before getting injured. He never got back into the starting lineup after Kaepernick took over and led San Francisco to a Super Bowl appearance against the Baltimore Ravens.

Smith ended up getting traded to the Kansas City Chiefs the following offseason.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, went back on their quest for a franchise quarterback and took Ryan Tannehill with the eighth overall selection in the 2012 draft.

So what would have happened had Manning had chosen the 49ers instead of the Broncos?

First, there's no way Smith would have gone back to the 49ers, so the Dolphins certainly would have looked a lot more appealing to him.

Smith, we should point out, was still only 27 at the time, so the idea that the Dolphins would sign Smith and then draft Tannehill in the first round seems a stretch.

So what else could the Dolphins have done with that eighth overall pick in 2012?

Well, the two players taken after Tannehill in that 2012 draft were Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly and South Carolina cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

The Dolphins had Karlos Dansby at middle linebacker at that time and the starting cornerbacks in 2012 were Sean Smith and Nolan Carroll, so maybe Gilmore would have been the pick.

Instead, Kuechly went to Carolina and Gilmore was selected by Buffalo, where he played before signing as a free agent with the New England Patriots and earning NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors last season.

Other memorable 2012 first-round picks include Fletcher Cox, Melvin Ingram and David DeCastro.

While Tannehill went 42-46-0 as a starter for the Dolphins from 2012-18, Smith had a 62-32-1 record a a starter during that same span before he sustained his devastating knee injury in 2018. Smith helped the Chiefs made the playoffs four times after joining them and was selected to three Pro Bowls, while Tannehill helped the Dolphins make the playoffs once and didn't make the Pro Bowl until he was with the Tennessee Titans last year.

So, as it turned out, it wasn't just painful to see the Dolphins not be able to lure Manning, but his decision to bypass the 49ers as well ended up having clear negative ramifications as well.

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Alain Poupart
ALAIN POUPART

Alain Poupart is the publisher/editor of Miami Dolphins On SI and host of the All Dolphins Podcast. Alain has covered the Miami Dolphins on a full-time basis since 1989 for various publications and media outlets, including Dolphin Digest, The Associated Press and the Dolphins team website. In addition to being a credentialed member of the Miami Dolphins press corps, Alain has covered three Super Bowls (for NFL.com, Football News and the Montreal Gazette), the annual NFL draft, the Senior Bowl, and the NFL Scouting Combine. During his almost 40 years in journalism, which began at the now-defunct Miami News, Alain has covered practically every sport at one time or another, from tennis to golf, baseball, basketball and everything in between. The career also included time as a copy editor, including work on several books, such as "Still Perfect," an inside look at the Miami Dolphins' 1972 perfect season. A native of Montreal, Canada, whose first language is French, Alain grew up a huge hockey fan but soon developed a love for all sports, including NFL football. He has lived in South Florida since the 1980s.

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