The Dolphins May Have Brutal Schedule in 2026, But That's Not the Whole Story There

It's not fresh news that the Miami Dolphins will face the second-toughest schedule in the NFL in the 2026 season because that's been established since the end of the last regular season.

Almost invariably, the strength of schedule is based solely on the combined winning percentage of each team's opponent the previous season, though analyst Warren Sharp added the new twist of figuring out win projections — and, guess what, the Dolphins came out with the second-toughest schedule there too.

Going back to the simple formula of using 2025 record, the Dolphins' opponents next season had a combined winning percentage of .542.

The Dolphins will play 11 games against teams that finished with a winning record last season — two against the New England Patriots (14-3) and Buffalo Bills (12-5) and one each against the Denver Broncos (14-3), L.A. Chargers (11-6), Chicago Bears (11-6), Green Bay Packers (9-7-1), Minnesota Vikings (9-8), Detroit Lions (9-8) and San Francisco 49ers (12-5).

Of the six games against teams that finished with a losing record, two are against teams expected to contend at least for a playoff spot in 2026, the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. The other four are against the Indianapolis Colts, Las Vegas Raiders with first overall pick Fernando Mendoza, and two games against the New York Jets.

On paper, yikes!

The only team in the NFL facing a tougher schedule based on the 2025 standing is Chicago, whose opponents had a combined winning percentage of .550.

But what does this mean looking ahead?

The biggest caveat, of course, is that teams are different from year to year, so just because the Patriots went 14-3 last season doesn't mean they're a 14-3 team in 2026. Also, injuries always play a factor and a key injury can instantly turn what on paper looks like a tough matchup into a much more manageable one.

THE DOLPHINS' RECENT SOS STORY

Looking back at the past 10 years, research indicates the .542 for 2026 represents the second-highest combined winning percentage from the previous year the Dolphins will face.

The highest mark was .554, it was the second-toughest in the NFL, and this is where we point out that this came in 2023, which also happens to be the season when the Dolphins produced their best record since 2000 as they finished with an 11-6 mark with a shot at earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs as late as the next-to-last week of the regular season.

Oh, and the last time before that the Dolphins' opponents had combined for a better than .500 winning percentage the previous year was in 2020. In that season, going against the third-toughest schedule with opponents with a combined .529 winning percentage the previous year, the Dolphins went 10-6.

That was their highest win total since 2016.

On the flip side, when the Dolphins stumbled to 8-9 and 7-10 finishes in the final two years of the McDaniel-Tua-Tyreek-Waddle chapter, their strength of schedule based on the previous year's standings ranked tied for 24th and tied for 21st in the NFL.

So, maybe the moral of the story is the whole strength of schedule angle is interesting, but it also shouldn't be used as a predictor of anything.

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