Why Jeremiah Smith Would Be the Perfect Pick ... For a Team Other than the Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins appear headed for a very early pick in the 2027 NFL draft and the idea of being able to land Ohio State superstar wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is one that's become very popular among fans as well as mock drafters.

It makes sense considering Smith is pretty universallly recognized as the top prospect in college football at this very early stage of the draft process, and we're talking about a Miami Dolphins team in the early stages of a rebuild that could use help at just about every position.

Going strictly with the BPA (best player available) approach, Smith should be a no-brainer if the Dolphins have the chance to draft him and bring home the Miami Gardens native.

Except it's not that simple.

And we'd suggest the Dolphins would be better off going in another direction.

THE BETTER APPROACH FOR MIAMI

Through Week 5, the Dolphins hold the third position in the 2027 draft because their combined opponent winning percentage is higher than that of the other two 0-5 teams, the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers.

But according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projections, the Dolphins have a 49 percent chance of ending up with that No. 1 overall pick, easily outdistancing Tennessee at 20 percent and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8 percent.

Because the Dolphins need volume, maybe a best-case scenario if they do end up with the first overall pick would be to trade a few spots in the first round with a team desperate to land Smith or whoever emerges as the top quarterback prospect by next spring, pick up additional assets and still land a high-end prospect to help build their foundation.

If they stay put, whether at No. 1, 2 or 3, it says here the Dolphins would be better served by taking either a quarterback (if they decide that Malik Willis is not going to be the long-term solution and the jury still should be out on that even though things aren't off to a great start) or a player at a different position.

THE POSITIONAL VALUE POSITION

Based on today's NFL, it's pretty well acknowledged that the most valuable positions are quarterback, tackle, pass rusher and cornerback falling somewhere behind that.

Outside of quarterback, there might not be a position in football that's as dependent on the other 10 players on the field as wide receiver because no matter how great, a wide receiver needs a quarterback to get him the ball and an offensive line (usually) that gives the quarterback enough time to do that.

A wide receiver also touches the ball at most, say, 15 times a game, limiting his ability to make a game-changing play — though there is something to be said for the attention a player can draw, which opens up other things for the offense.

This doesn't necessarily prove anything, but the stats remain pretty vivid when it comes to wide receivers and making Super Bowl champs.

The previous 10 winners — Kansas City three times, Philadelphia and New England twice, Tampa Bay, the L.A. Rams and most recently Seattle — featured in their starting lineup a total of 13 players who entered the NFL as a top 5 pick.

Only one of them was a wide receiver. And that wide receiver, Sammy Watkins of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019, wasn't drafted by that team, but rather by the Buffalo Bills five years earlier.

The list also included four quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Carson Wentz, Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold), one running back (Saquon Barkley), one offensive tackle (Lane Johnson), two edge defenders (Chris Long, Von Miller), one defensive tackle (Ndamukong Suh), one linebacker (Devin White) and two cornerbacks (Jalen Ramsey and Devon Witherspoon).

Only four of those 13 top 5 picks who won the Super Bowl in the past 10 years won with their original team: Wentz, Johnson, White and Witherspoon. One quarterback, one tackle, one linebacker and one cornerback.

And there's this other statistical tidbit, which might not mean anything but then again might.

In the 15 drafts between and 2024, 12 defensive ends/edge defenders were selected among the first five picks. Ten of those players made the playoffs with their original team, an 83 percent hit rate.

During that same time period, eight cornerbacks went in the top 5 and six of them made the playoffs with their original team, a 75 pecent clip. That was the same percentage at QB with 18 out of 24.

For wide receivers, the percentage was 57 percent, with four of seven wide receivers taken in the top 5 making the playoffs with their drafting team. Those who did were A.J. Green, Amari Cooper, Corey Davis and Ja'Marr Chase. Those who didn't were Justin Blackmon, the aforementioned Sammy Watkins and Marvin Harrison Jr.

And now Harrison has been traded in his third season in the NFL, going from the Arizona Cardinals to the Houston Texans for a second-round pick along with a late-round swap.

This was the same Marvin Harrison Jr. who was considered almost a sure-fire star prospect when he came out of Ohio State in 2024. He wasn't viewed quite as favorably as Smith is these days, but his failure with the Cardinals still should serve as a warning that there are few sure things.

IS JEREMIAH SMITH THE NEW CALVIN JOHNSON?

This is where we bring up Calvin Johnson, as perfect a wide receiver prospect as there ever was with his 6-5 stature, 4.2-4.3 speed and great route-running ability. Johnson absolutely was as good as advertised on his way to becoming a first-ballot Hall of Fame selection.

The Detroit Lions selected second overall in 2007 and had no reason ever to regret the pick.

The Lions made the playoffs twice in Johnson's nine seasons.

They never won a playoff game with him.

None of that is Johnson's fault because it takes way more than one great wide receiver to succeed.

But it does show that a brilliant wide receiver isn't enough, even with Matthew Stafford as the quarterback.

The Dolphins found that out the hard way the past several years because it's difficult to envision a more impactful than Tyreek Hill, who was the embodiment of an explosive player who opened things up for the entire offense because of the attention he demanded.

And with Hill — not to mention a great sidekick in Jaylen Waddle — the Dolphins won exactly zero playoff games in four years.

And this is where Smith supporters and/or Hill detractors will point out that Hill shrunk in big moments or simply didn't have the size to operate when the game got more physical, and there is merit to that argument.

By all indications, this won't be an issue with Smith, who's not only got the athleticism but also the size.

What Smith doesn't have is the right position.

If the Dolphins suddenly found themselves only a wide receiver away from contention by next spring, we'd be on board with taking him at No. 1, No. 2, whatever.

But they won't be, so we're not.

Jeremiah Smith is a fabulous prospect and more than likely will become a great NFL player. The Dolphins still should look elsewhere to max out their anticipated top pick in the 2027 NFL draft.

Add us as a preferred source on Google