Michael Penix Jr. On 'Bust Alert' in Third Season with Atlanta Falcons

In 2024 the Atlanta Falcons made the unconventional decision to spend $100 million on a bridge quarterback while simultaneously using a top-10 pick on their quarterback of the future.

That strategy is a big reason why the Atlanta Falcons have a new general manager and head coach heading into the 2026 season.

The bigger concern is if they'll need to be in the quarterback market again in 2027 as said No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. and former All-Pro Tua Tagovailoa battle for the No. 1 spot in 2026.

Tagovailoa is trying to resuscitate his career after a disastrous 2025, and Penix showed flashes as a rookie after Cousins was benched after a string of subpar performances. However, he regressed as a full-time starter in 2025 before suffering a season-ending knee injury in November.

Patience for first-round quarterbacks isn't what it used to be, and CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan has Penix solidly on "bust alert" heading into the season.

"I think he's going to be a bust, because I don't know if he's even going to be the starter to begin the season," Sullivan said on the CBS Sports Network.

Penix starting the season as he recovers from surgery isn't nearly as important as finishing it. Penix could cede the first four games of the year to Tagovailoa before taking over in October and still prove himself as a viable starter for 2027.

"I don't even know if he's going to be a bust for 2026 regular season," Sullivan continued. "I think he's a bust for the 2026 summer, because I think that when it's all said and done, he's going to be looking up at Tua Tagovailoa on the starting quarterback depth chart."

Again, Tagovailoa starting Week 1 against the Pittsburgh Steelers in itself doesn't mean Penix is out of the starting quarterback race, but Sullivan isn't sure that even a fully healthy Penix is good enough to beat out Tagovailoa.

"Everything that we've seen so far is that it's been pretty glowing praise from Kevin Stefanski in terms of Tua Tagovailoa. We've seen him actually perform at a high level in the NFL. An under .500 quarterback completes less than 60% of his passes in his career, Michael Penix is to this point. It just feels like it's Tua's job to lose, and that puts Michael Penix on the outside looking in, possibly for the entire season, maybe just outside of (a Tagovailoa) injury," Sullivan concluded.

New head coach Kevin Stefanski has been complimentary of Tagovailoa, but he's also been complimentary of Penix and all of the Atlanta Falcons at OTAs and minicamp. We can't read too much into glowing praise in an offseason program from a new head coach.

The Falcons have every reason to want Penix to win the job outright. Tagovailoa is on a one-year deal, while the Falcons still have two years left on Penix's rookie contract, plus the fifth-year option. He's two years younger, and there's no question he has the stronger arm and bigger upside.

But he's suffered five season-ending injuries in his seven seasons as a starting quarterback, dating back to college. And he has been inconsistent in his opportunities to start in the NFL, while his fellow Class of 2024 quarterbacks like Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, and Bo Nix have established themselves as up-and-coming stars in this league.

Penix will have every opportunity to become the guy the Falcons drafted him to be this season, but if he doesn't, quarterback will certainly be on the table in next year's NFL Draft.

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