Can the Falcons Use Blueprint from the Colts’ Losses to Pull Off an Upset?

BERLIN, DE – The Atlanta Falcons got out their passports for a Week 10 showdown with the Indianapolis Colts. This team will be eager for a win as they look to snap what has turned into a three-game losing streak.

Unfortunately for them, they will be getting a 7-2 Colts team that, before Week 10 kicked off on Thursday, has the NFL’s best record.

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Their most recent result was a 27-20 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers – ironically, the same outcome as their first loss of the season to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4. Is there anything that the Falcons can take from those games and use to their advantage in Berlin?

“I hope so,” head coach Raheem Morris said on Friday morning. “You know, that's a big cliché in sports that people deliver blueprints for people, because you've got to be able to adjust. I know they've got a really good coaching staff, Shane [Steichen] and all the guys that they have, and the adjustments that they'll make coming off of that game, you can't just rely on stuff that happened in the past. Those guys will make great adjustments. We've got to figure out a way to win this game.”

The numbers have been gaudy for the Colts this season. Their offense has eclipsed 30 points in six of their nine games, and has eclipsed 40 points twice. The Colts have scored fewer than 29 points just twice, which happened to come in their two losses.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are averaging just 17.9 points per game. They have reached that 30-point threshold just once, and have scored more than 20 points four times.

Finding a way to slow this unit down will be a massive undertaking for Jeff Ulbrich’s defense, but with how the offense has struggled, it will be a critical aspect of this game.

“They love that challenge,” Ulbrich said. “It's not only the number one offense this season, I mean, they are on a historic pace for points and yards. So, to beat an opponent like this, it's like I said, we've struggled as of late – not only defensively, but as a team. And to get out of a rut like this and to create some momentum and get going in the right direction, you want to play a really good opponent, a complete component. And that's what we're facing.”

Jonathan Taylor and his league-leading 895 rushing yards have stolen the headlines, but he has largely served as the closer for this offense. The Colts have leaned on their passing attack early in games before bringing him in to slam the door on opponents in the second half.

In the Colts’ two losses, they were unable to build a substantial lead. Jones also threw five interceptions in those games, while throwing just a single interception in the Colts’ seven other games.

Fortunately for the Falcons, they have the NFL’s top-rated secondary and are limiting their opponents to just 158.1 yards passing.

Daniel Jones will be a challenge of his own. He leads what has been an elite passing attack that has a success rate of 54.4% (best mark in the NFL). Jones leads the NFL in passing with 2,404 yards, and three of his pass catchers have 500+ yards receiving.

If the Falcons want to have any chance of slowing that unit down, they will have to get pressure on Jones and force him into some of those mistakes.

Ulbrich will likely look to do that with his blitz-heavy defense. He sends extra men after the quarterback at a 49.2% clip, which is easily the highest mark in the NFL.

For how effective Jones has been this season, his completion drops to just 55.3% (8th lowest in the NFL), and his quarterback rating drops to 93.8 when he is blitzed.

But pressure alone will not be enough for the Falcons on Sunday. Their pass rush has to reach home and end in sacks. Jones has only been sacked 14 times this season, but eight of those came in those two losses – the Steelers sacked Jones five times, and the Rams got to him three times.

The Falcons are one of the NFL's most-improved pass rushes this season, and they are fresh off of a six-sack performance in New England.

If the Falcons can harass Jones and get him to the ground a few times, they may be able to force him into mistakes. If they do that, they might add their name to the list of teams that toppled the Colts and this humming offense.