ESPN's Falcons vs. Patriots Predictions are Bad News for Raheem Morris

Raheem Morris is 11-13 after a season and a half in charge of the Atlanta Falcons. Hovering around .500 certainly isn't the worst a Falcons' head coach has been in the inglorious history of the franchise.

But taking another look, the Falcons are 5-10 in their last 15 games and are prohibitive road underdogs this week against the New England Patriots (6-2) and in Germany against the red-hot Indianapolis Colts (7-1).

Not that the Falcons have done anything this year according to script, but if they lose the next two, that's 5-12 across the equivalent of a 17-game season. That speaks of a team heading in the wrong direction despite four straight years of top-10 draft positions and an owner who has dumped hundreds of millions into free agents.

The Falcons have been nearly impossible to predict this year. Beating the likes of the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills, while getting blown out by the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins.

Still, ESPN's panel of analysts, which includes reporter Pamela Maldonado, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder, is unanimous in predicting the Falcons fall flat in Foxboro against the Patriots.

ESPN's Atlanta Falcons vs. New England Patriots Predictions

Maldonado's pick: Patriots 30, Falcons 10
Moody's pick: Patriots 24, Falcons 21
Walder's pick: Patriots 31, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: NE, 64.9% (by an average of 5.8 points)

Moody points out in his fantasy nuggets for this game that Kyle Pitts Sr. could be in for a big afternoon. Pitts has seen his share of targets increase with the absence of Drake London last week and the absence of Darnell Mooney all season.

"Falcons TE Kyle Pitts Sr. has piled up 19 targets over his past two games and scored at least 13 fantasy points in each. Though the Patriots' defense is formidable, it allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The unit also just gave up big performances to Browns TEs David Njoku (13.7) and Harold Fannin Jr. (18.4)," Moody wrote on ESPN.

Walder's bold prediction may not be so bold after all. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye leads the NFL in passer rating (minimum 120 attempts), and Walder likes the matchup against what has been a good Falcons' pass defense.

"Maye will lead the league in QBR this week," wrote Walder as his bold prediction. "He has been great in 2025, but his numbers have been particularly exceptional against man coverage (89.1 QBR). Now, he faces the Falcons, who play man coverage 58% of the time, which is second most in the NFL."

ESPN's betting nugget is foreboding for the Falcons as well, stating the Falcons are 6-14 against the spread as underdogs in their last 20 games. What they don't tell you is that they're 3-1 against the spread as underdogs this season.

3-1 as underdogs and 0-3 as favorites this season. The only thing predictable about the Atlanta Falcons this season has been a lack of consistency from week to week.

The Patriots have had an excellent start to their season. Maye has put himself into MVP discussions early in his second season. They have the No. 4 scoring defense in the NFL, and they're No. 7 in the NFL in takeaways.

However, they are easily No. 32 in strength of schedule with their last three wins coming against New Orleans (1-7), Las Vegas (2-5), and Cleveland (2-6).

Unfortunately, we don't really know which version of the Atlanta Falcons will show up in Foxborough on Sunday afternoon. If the underdog birds show up, this could be the best team the Patriots have played since beating the Bills in Week 5. If it's the team that showed up last week against the Miami Dolphins, it will be a long, cold afternoon for the Falcons.