Will Falcons Find Its Run Game? Five Questions That Dictate Matchup With Colts

BERLIN, DE – The 3-5 Atlanta Falcons are facing a critical game on Sunday as they look to avoid a four-game losing streak. If they want to reach the postseason in 2025, then they have to come out of Week 10 in Berlin with a win.

Standing in their way is one of the NFL’s best teams from the first half of the season. The high-flying Indianapolis Colts sit at 7-2 and have been able to outscore their opponents all year long.

Led by a resurgent Daniel Jones, a spiffy new toy on defense they picked up at the deadline, and one of the frontrunners for Offensive Player of the Year, the Colts will be a difficult matchup for the Falcons.

How can the Falcons go to Berlin and get a win? Check out the biggest questions facing these teams heading into Sunday’s game.

CAN MICHAEL PENIX JR. STAY CLEAN?

New England Patriots defender K'Lavon Chaisson sacks Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. | Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

Falcons Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. will be playing behind a patchwork offensive line on Sunday. Already down his first and second right tackle, he will now potentially be without his first and second guard – left guard Matthew Bergeron has already been declared out for Week 10, and right guard Chris Lindstrom is currently questionable.

That unit will now be tasked with a potent Colts pass rush that ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks (26), ninth in pressure rate (36.9%). They will be without All-Pro defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, but there are still several talented players the Falcons will need to account for.

Players like Adetomiwa Adebawore and Neville Gallimore will get an increased workload on Sunday, but three other players have three sacks or more this season.

Falcon quarterbacks have only been sacked 11 times this season, and only the Seahawks have given up fewer, but they have given up pressure.

When Penix is pressured, his completion percentage plummets to 36.5% (33rd in the NFL) and an EPA/dropback of -0.34 (18th in the NFL). When they keep him clean, Penix is completing 69.8% of his passes and his EPA/dropback is +0.05 (5th in the NFL).

CAN THE FALCONS GET THEIR RUSHING ATTACK ROLLING?

Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Last week, Raheem Morris called the running game the lifeblood of this football team, and he certainly has a point. The Falcons fell to 0-4 this season in games where they do not reach 100 yards on the ground.

After featuring an offense that was near the top of the NFL in rushing, the Falcons have since slipped to 15th and are averaging just 116.8 yards per game. That comes despite boasting one of the league’s best running back duos.

Since rushing for 170 yards against Buffalo, Bijan Robinson has just 111 yards in the three games since. Tyler Allgeier has just 10 carries for 26 yards. Numbers like this are simply unacceptable for this Falcons offense.

“We’ve definitely got to get Ty [RB Tyler Allgeier] going,” Zac Robinson said Wednesday. “He's way too valuable for the offense. We’ve got to find those spots to put him in, knowing, hey, we love B [Bijan Robinson]. He can do everything. He's playing running back. He's playing receiver. He's doing everything for us. Third down, second down, first down, doesn't matter. But getting Ty going on some early down stuff is definitely a goal.”

If they want to have a chance to upset the Colts in Week 10, it will likely start with their ability to generate a ground game and get both running backs up and running. Their last three quiet games have mirrored the offense’s overall inconsistency, a worrying trend for a team built around their ability to find success.

HOW DO THE FALCONS SLOW DOWN THIS COLTS OFFENSE? CAN THEY?

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Their numbers have been gaudy this season. The Colts have eclipsed 30 points in six of their nine games, and they have eclipsed 40 points twice. However, when the Colts are held to 20 points in a game, they are winless – granted, the offense averaging 32.2 points per game does not let that happen very often (just twice).

The Falcons are averaging just 17.9 points per game on offense. They have reached that 30-point threshold just once, and have scored more than 20 points four times.

Finding a way to slow this unit down will be a massive undertaking for Jeff Ulbrich’s defense, but with how the offense has struggled, it will be a critical aspect of this game.

Jonathan Taylor and his league-leading 895 rushing yards have stolen the headlines, but he is the closer for this offense. The Colts have leaned on their passing attack early in games before bringing him in to slam the door on opponents.

In the Colts’ two losses, they were unable to build a substantial lead. Jones also threw five interceptions in those games, while throwing just one in the Colts’ seven other games.

Fortunately for the Falcons, they have the NFL’s top-rated secondary. They are limiting their opponents to just 158.1 yards passing.

If the Colts can take a lead on the Falcons, Atlanta’s struggling run defense will be thrust into focus, and they will be left scrambling. The early parts of this game will be telling.

CAN THE FALCONS GENERATE PRESSURE ON DANIEL JONES?

Pittsburgh Steelers defender Keeanu Benton sacks Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Speaking of Daniel Jones, the Falcons will have to get pressure on the first-year Colt on Sunday. Jones leads the NFL in passing yards (2,404) and success rate (54.4%) this season, and his resurgence is a major reason the Colts have scored like they have.

Stopping this Colts offense comes down to getting pressure on Daniel Jones and forcing him into some mistakes. As mentioned in the previous section, when teams force him into mistakes, they give themselves a chance to win.

The Falcons can do that by sending the blitz.

As prolific as he has been, Jones’ completion rate drops to just 55.3% when he is blitzed (8th lowest in the NFL). Meanwhile, the Falcons blitz more than any team in the NFL (49.2%).

He has only been sacked 14 times, but eight of those came in their two losses – the Steelers sacked Jones five times, and the Rams got to him three times. If the Falcons can harass Jones, they may be able to force him into mistakes and add their name to the list of teams who toppled the Colts’ humming offense.

WHO WINS BETWEEN SAUCE GARDNER AND DRAKE LONDON?

New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner | Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

The Colts made the biggest splash at the NFL trade deadline on Tuesday when they sent Adonai Mitchell and two first-round picks for cornerback Sauce Gardner.

Indianapolis already had a high-flying offense, but its defense lacked a lockdown corner that would slam the door on opponents. The All-Pro cornerback should expect to change that right away, starting Sunday against the Falcons.

According to NextGenStats, Gardner has faced the opposing team’s most targeted receiver at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL this season (45.5%, min. 100 coverage matchups), trailing only D.J. Reed (48.2%). In man coverage this season, the corner has forced a tight window of less than one yard of separation on 66.7% of his targets (highest in the NFL).

When Drake London is targeted in a tight window, he has caught six of those 17 targets for 77 yards and three touchdowns (tied for the most in the NFL).

London is fifth in the NFL in yards receiving per game, and only Ja’Marr Chase is being targeted more every week. The Falcons’ top receiver accounts for half of Michael Penix Jr.’s completions this season.

With the struggles of other Falcon wideouts, this will be a pivotal matchup for them to win.