NFL's Easier Strength of Schedule for Atlanta Falcons Has Big Problem

The Atlanta Falcons have, on paper, one of the easiest schedules in the NFL -- but not when you look into it a little deeper.

The league office officially announced that it will release the annual NFL schedule on Thursday evening, leaving the Atlanta Falcons and the other 31 franchises eager for details. 

There will be a slow trickle of games over the next several days, but one thing that the Falcons know for sure is who they are playing. While the dates and framing of the official schedule could have an equal say in how difficult the schedule really ends up being, the official strength of schedule is already known – and it does not do the Falcons many favors despite what the number might indicate. 

Before the full schedule is released, take a look at each team's strength of schedule for 2026. 👀

📺: NFL Schedule Release - Thursday at 8pm ET on ESPN/NFLN pic.twitter.com/eChBp3QMVa

— NFL (@NFL) May 11, 2026

Atlanta comes in with a .465 opponent win percentage (using last season’s records), which, on paper, is the league’s fifth-easiest schedule in the NFL. In reality, it may not be the yellow brick road that some would hope it would be. 

With the NFC South being matched up with the AFC and NFC North, the Falcons are going to be assured of a very difficult slate. Aside from the possibility of cold-weather games that are likely to throw the Falcons for a loop, those two divisions have been consistently two of the league’s most consistent. 

On the AFC side, the Pittsburgh Steelers have not had a losing season since 2003, while the Baltimore Ravens (8-9) and Cincinnati Bengals (6-11) are both coming off injury-plagued campaigns where they remained competitive despite injuries to their MVP-caliber quarterbacks. 

Meanwhile on the NFC side, the division was the most competitive in the league. Every franchise finished with a winning record, and the razor-thin margins in division play deflated the winning percentages of all four teams. 

Additionally, the Falcons will play an absurdly challenging third-place schedule. Instead of drawing a franchise like the Miami Dolphins, they get the Washington Commanders on the road, plus the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at home. All three of those teams underachieved due to quarterback injuries. 

Of the Falcons’ 11 non-divisional opponents, seven of them are in the top half of the league in terms of Super Bowl odds. Atlanta, meanwhile, comes in at around +8000 (No. 25 in the NFL).

So the .465 winning percentage feels nice, at least on the surface. After digging into it a bit more, it becomes clear that the schedule will be much more difficult to navigate than previously thought. 

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