Albert Breer’s Free Agency Notes: What to Expect of Kyler Murray, Kirk Cousins Deals

Tua Tagovailoa and Geno Smith’s signings may inform what happens with the other half of the free-agent quarterbacks. Plus, what to make of the Jaguars subtle approach.

Kyler Murray (left) and Kirk Cousins (right) are the two biggest quarterback free agents remaining. | Joe Camporeale/Imagn Images, Robert Deutsch/Imagn Images

With Day 2 winding down … sort of...

We’re now halfway through the NFL’s class of free-agent quarterbacks for 2026.

Coming into this week, Tua Tagvailoa, Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith were all on the verge of being released—those moves can’t happen officially until Wednesday—from the big contracts they signed over the last couple years. All had substantial guaranteed money left on their deals, meaning the likelihood was each would go find the best football situation possible, take the minimum, and stick their old teams with the bill for the rest.

That is what happened with Tagovailoa, after the Dolphins did their 2020 first-round pick the solid of allowing him to get a jump on this market, giving him permission to go find a new home on Monday, which he did in Atlanta later that day. He’ll play for the Falcons for the veteran minimum of $1.215 million, with Miami taking on the remainder of his guarantee ($52.785 million) for 2026.

It is not what happened with Smith.

On Tuesday, the Raiders, Jets and Smith found a compromise that gave everyone the chance to come out a winner. Vegas got the word out last week Smith would be released, which drew the Jets in for a trade, and the Raiders then agreed to send Smith with a seventh-round pick to New York for a sixth-rounder. Smith’s remaining guarantee was $18.5 million. The Raiders agreed to pay $16.2 million of it to facilitate the trade. The Jets will pay Smith $3.3 million.

That worked for everyone. For the Raiders, they got to move a late pick up 20 spots, and saved a million off what they’d have paid if Smith was cut and simply signed for the minimum elsewhere (that number would’ve been $17.2 million). The Jets, meanwhile, locked in their starting quarterback at a cut rate, and avoided having to compete for him with the Vikings. And Smith will make $19.5 million next year, with the opportunity to start, rather than just the $18.5 million he’d have gotten if he was cut and did a minimum deal.

So which way do the last two guys go?

What I’ve heard is Murray is locked in on playing at the minimum, and using the circumstance he’s in to make this a football-only decision. My sense is that the Vikings would be his preference, and the Smith trade makes it more likely that Minnesota signs him. If the Vikings go another way, with someone like Cousins, then I think the idea of being the stopgap in Indianapolis, presuming Daniel Jones re-ups, while Jones is coming back from his torn Achilles would be appealing to him.

Cousins, as I’ve heard it, would rather not have his new team just grab him for the minimum, mostly because he knows (particularly after what he just went through) how quickly teams can flip the script on quarterbacks—and how a team’s investment in a player can dictate that. His guarantee is also much smaller ($10 million) than those of the other guys, so the chance he exceeds the number is greater. Minnesota and Indy would be on his list as well—we’ll see if those teams would reciprocate the interest.

Jaguars general manager James Gladstone (right) and Liam Coen (left) have brought a new free-agency approach to Jacksonville. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Jaguars’ Quieter Approach

• The Jaguars have been much, much quieter this year than last … and you can already see the Rams’s influence on the approach here by GM James Gladstone and coach Liam Coen.

Jacksonville, despite trading its first-round pick in the Travis Hunter deal, has 11 picks in this year’s draft. They have three third-rounders, with two that came for Detroit from last year’s draft day swap that landed the Lions Isaac TeSlaa. They have additional fifth- and sixth-rounders from the Tank Bigsby trade with the Eagles. And that stockpile gives them a ton of flexibility for the second and third days of the April draft.

This is how Gladstone and Coen saw Les Snead and Sean McVay operate for years. The Rams brass did trade a bunch of first-rounders away. But through trades, and the compensatory-pick formula, they amassed a ton of capital otherwise, which allowed for them to build up the guts of the roster around their established stars.

Swing that around now to the Jaguars—their relative inactivity this week will help them win on the comp-pick formula, and get third- or fourth-round picks back for linebacker Devin Lloyd and running back Travis Etienne. So that puts them at nine picks in 2027, with the chance to amass more on draft weekend.

And that’ll give them ammo to add to the team in the spring and summer, like they did last year in adding Jakobi Meyers, who grew into an integral piece for them, at the deadline. Or just keep their powder dry, and carry the warchest into 2027.

Either way, they have a lot of options going forward in how to augment a 12-win team.

Seahawks Keep Cutting Costs

A day after the Seahawks decided to go all-in at receiver, they proved to be a little choosier at corner, in letting Tariq Woolen go after re-signing Josh Jobe.

The reality is Woolen was seen by many to be with new Titan Alontae Taylor and new Ram Jaylen Watson atop the corner market. Taylor got a three-year, $60 million contract. Watson landed a three-year, $51 million deal. So with Woolen in those waters, the Seahawks moved to sign Jobe, their other starting outside corner, who’s been more consistent but has less upside, to a three-year, $24 million deal.

As was the case at receiver, the Seahawks also have a monster extension looming at the position, with Devon Witherspoon now eligible for a big second contract. And they’ll likely spend a pick somewhere in the draft to try and find some depth at a position that’s a little thin now.

Former Seahawks cornerback Riq Woolen will join the Eagles on a one-year deal in 2026. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Prove-It Deals for Riq Woolen, Romeo Doubs

Woolen’s market also didn’t materialize the way he’d hoped, hence the one-year show-me deal he decided to do to team up with Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in Philly.

The good news is he has a chance to earn his way to $15 million, which is closer to the average-per-year he was shooting for, and then hit the market next year with experience having played in another defensive scheme that’s spread across the league (just like the Ravens-style scheme Mike Macdonald runs is everyone, Vic Fangio’s is too).

Another guy I believe was in that category of being a little disappointed in the market—new Patriot Romeo Doubs, who was shooting to get to $20 million per year. His deal with the Patriots has a base with a $17 million APY, and the compromise on that one was New England giving him the chance to get to that initial target through incentives on a four-year deal.

Unique Deal Structure for Alijah Vera-Tucker

The Patriots’ overnight deal with ex-Jets G Alijah Vera-Tucker is fascinating in its structure, in that $12.75 million of the three-year, $42 million base is tied up in per-game roster bonuses (Vera-Tucker gets $250,000 per game he’s active). That’s over 30% of the money linked directly to whether or not Vera-Tucker is healthy enough to suit up.

It’s wild, and illustrates how the market did not materialize for Vera-Tucker the way it did for guys like new Brown Zion Johnson ($16.5 million APY) or new Saint David Edwards ($15.25 million APY). And that, of course, is because of Vera Tucker’s injury history.

Vera Tucker has played in just 43 of 68 possible games since coming into the league as a first-round pick. The upside here is indeed big for the Patriots, and especially since Vera-Tucker can enhance one guard spot, and push 2025 rookie Jared Wilson over to his natural position of center. But risk is too, as the contract shows.

Isiah Pacheco’s (10) violent running style may have led to a less lucrative deal, but he should have a clear role with the Lions. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Isiah Pacheco’s Fit With Lions

• Isiah Pacheco is another player in that category—really good when he’s healthy, but not healthy enough to get the payday he might’ve envisioned on the open market.

Pacheco’s violent play style certainly plays into the injuries that have kept him out of 17 games over the last three years. And the Lions have to hope they can manage that as they break Pacheco in as David Montgomery’s replacement. The good news is his rugged running should be a really good complement to Jahmyr Gibbs, and Gibbs’ prominence in the offensive scheme should allow for the Lions to manage Pacheco’s workload.

Other News and Notes

• Keeping Dawson Knox is a win for the Bills, just as the keeping T.J. Hockenson on a reworked contract was a win for the Vikings. And, sure, Hockenson getting something done did set a bit of a road map for Buffalo, even if the methods (Hockenson took a $5 million pay cut in exchange for his freedom after 2026; Knox did an extension) were different.

Knox being on hand is important for Buffalo because it’ll allow them to keep moving Dalton Kincaid around, which is how the Bills can best maximize the former first-rounder.

• It sure looks like Trey Hendrickson may have overshot his market, after a rocky final couple years in Cincinnati. Still, he’s a really good player, and the Cowboys and Colts have kept tabs on his situation. And now he’s in a position where he may have to give a little.

• Among the top names still out there: Titans TE Chig Okonkwo, 49ers WR Jauan Jennings, Commanders OG Chris Paul and Packers OT Rasheed Walker, Colts S Nick Cross, and Bears S Jaquon Brisker, along with older vets like Bills DE Joey Bosa and Browns G Joel Bitonio.

• As a reminder: Free agent deals can actually be signed at 4 p.m. on Wednesday. And that’s when guys like Murray, who are released, will officially become free agents as well.

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