Three Reasons Why Giants Can Top 7.5 Wins in 2022

SI Sportsbook sets the New York Giants' 2022 over/under win total at 7.5 games. Here's why we think you should take the over on that line.

Author:
Andrew Parsaud
Publish date:
Jul 22, 2022 10:00 AM EDT

In this story:

New York Giants

The New York Giants are entering 2022 during a franchise overhaul. New general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll are looking to change this team’s misfortune from the previous regimes.

Can the Giants double their win total from 2021 and beat the under/over of 7.5 wins as set by SI Sportsbook?

We think if everyone stays healthy, they can--and here are a few reasons.

The New Look Offense

Last season, New York ranked 31st in points per game (15.2) and last in yards per pass play (5.4). They had six games in which they scored 10 points or less, surprisingly all coming after the bye week. During the Joe Judge/Jason Garrett era, the Giants scored over 30 points just once, in a Week 5, 37-34 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in 2020.

This Giants offense has been lacking an identity for a long time. The last two years have been tough to watch. The Giants barely looked like a functioning offense thanks to subpar offensive line play, injuries all across the board, and an inefficient system not built to succeed in today’s game.

Head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka are looking to implement a pass-heavy offense with different elements from the Bills' and Chiefs' offenses.

Daboll helped the Bills offense reach 252 passing yards per game (9th) and 381.9 total yards per game (5th) in 2021, while Mike Kafka was a part of a Chiefs offense that ranked third in total yards per game (396.8) and fourth in passing yards per game (281.8) in 2021.

These two should help quarterback Daniel Jones improve tremendously. Jones threw an impressive 24 touchdowns during his rookie season. He has only thrown for 22 touchdowns while missing eight games over the last two years, including the final six games of 2021, due to a neck injury.

The Giants also hope the offensive line will be better than in years past. New York has two young bookend tackles in Andrew Thomas and rookie Evan Neal, but the line's interior is where improvement should be seen the most.

Last year, former general manager Dave Gettleman traded for Billy Price and Ben Bredeson just two weeks before the regular season began. Price and Bredeson didn't look like the answers, and while Bredeson was retained, Price was not.

Now, the Giants have Shane Lemieux returning from injury and veterans Jon Feliciano and Mark Glowinski slotted as the starting center and left guard, respectively.

Pairing Jones’ improvement with the best offensive line he’s played with in his career and getting most of his playmakers healthy gives this offense the potential to get on track toward doing its part in helping the Giants achieve the over in 2022.

There Should Finally Be Consistent Pressure Off the Edge

The Giants have lacked a true pass rush for years. Last year, they drafted Azeez Ojulari, who led the team with 8.0 sacks. However, Ojulari was not enough for New York’s defense to provide consistent pressure off the edge. Leonard Williams, who exploded for 11.5 sacks in 2020, only had 6.5 last year and saw a decrease in pressures from 42 in 2020 to just 22 in 2021.

The Giants drafted Kayvon Thibodeaux, the highly-touted pass rusher out of Oregon, with the fifth-overall pick in April. Thibodeaux, who had 12 tackles for loss and seven sacks last year at Oregon, should help make an impact from Day 1 in pairing with Ojulari on the outside.

The Giants had 34 sacks last season, tied for 26th in the league with Seattle and Baltimore. That number should go up this season with the addition of Thibodeaux and the improvement of Ojulari, and a healthy Elerson Smith.

There is concern about the secondary being able to hold its coverage with the departures of safety Logan Ryan and cornerback James Bradberry. However, if the pass rush can pressure the quarterbacks, that will help the secondary.

The Schedule is in Their Favor

The Giants have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule based on last year’s winning percentage of opponents (.465). New York plays every team ahead of them in the 2022 NFL Draft--Jacksonville, Houston, Detroit, and Carolina--with the Jets being the lone exception.

They also face Chicago and Seattle, games they could win if all goes well.

Ideally, the Giants will find a way to win their division if they have any playoff aspirations. In addition to winning the division, it would also help the Giants in their climb back toward respectability if they can get off to a hot start at the beginning of the year.

Last year, they started the season 0-3; the year prior, they started 0-5 before ending with a 6-10 record. So ideally, they aim to match their 2019 start, the best by the Giants in the last five years, when they started 2-2.

New York will open the 2022 season in Tennessee before returning home for a three-game stretch against Carolina, Dallas on Monday Night Football, and Chicago. In addition to winning their division, a 2-2 start to the season--ideally, a 3-1 start--would sure go a long way toward their topping the 7.5 win mark set by odds makers.