NY Giants Week 16 Preview: Vikings Offense is Most Vulnerable in One Area

Can the New York Giants' defense finally find success against an inefficient Minnesota Vikings offense?

Dec 14, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) throws during the first half against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The New York Giants' defense has struggled to stop anybody consistently this season, but that could change this week against the inconsistent Minnesota Vikings offense.

Personnel

When healthy, there have been few quarterbacks asked to do as little as J.J. McCarthy has been asked to do in this, his first full season as a starter after missing last year with a knee injury.

Despite being asked to mostly just operate inside the system, McCarthy often puts the ball in harm's way, having thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

McCarthy has particularly struggled when he’s under pressure, completing just 47% of his passes with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Given that, it stands to reason that the Giants will be dialing up a lot of pressure this week, especially given the Vikings' starting offensive tackles (Christian Darrisaw on the left and Brian O’Neill on the right), and their starting center (Brian O’Neill), landed on this week’s injury report.

In the backfield with McCarthy are Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason; the former has dealt with his own fair share of injuries in 2025. Neither back has been particularly explosive this year, with long rushes of 31 and 24, respectively. Both will be used as pass-catchers as well, although Jones has been much more effective in that arena.

The Vikings will also be one of the few teams the Giants face this year that use a fullback somewhat often. CJ Ham spent much of the early part of the season injured, but has established himself as a consistent part of the offense in recent weeks.

He’s almost exclusively used as a blocker, but his purpose is more significant than that:  his presence requires defenses to decide whether they will go heavy to match personnel or not.

The Vikings usually only use three receivers in a game, partially because they use a fullback and two tight ends, so their rotation at receiver can stay thin.

Justin Jefferson has been a dominant receiver for most of his career, but poor quarterback play has limited his production in 2025. Jefferson has 832 yards and just two touchdowns on 66 catches so far this season.

Jordan Addison and Jalen Nailor are intermediate threats in this offense, both of whom are also struggling to produce consistently this season.

T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver will see the bulk of the snaps at tight end, with Hockenson being an all-around player and Oliver being primarily a blocker. Hockenson has become the safety valve for McCarthy, although he’s capable of being more involved in the passing game than he has been.

The Vikings' pass catchers have struggled with drops overall in 2025. Jefferson has five, Addison has seven, Hockenson has four, and Jones has three.

Getting back to the offensive line, Darrisaw is expected to miss this week, while Kelly, who returned to action a few weeks ago, is iffy for Sunday. From left to right, the expected offensive line this week will be Justin Skule, Donovan Jackson, Kelly, Fries, and O’Neill.

O’Neill and Kelly are the studs on this line, but the other three leave plenty to be desired, especially in pass-protection. The 31 pressures allowed by Fries are tied for the fourth-most allowed by any guard this season.

Scheme

The Vikings offense is built on the wide-zone run game, and is sometimes paired with split-zone action, then using play-action to attack.

Split-zone is when a tight end or fullback blocks in the opposite direction of the offensive line on a zone run play, creating a backside rush lane for the back to cut to.

With a play-action rate of 26.7%, the Vikings rank ninth in the NFL. The Vikings operate mostly out of 11 personnel, using it on 65.94% of their snaps, well above the league average of 57%.

When not in 11 personnel, the Vikings will lean on 12- and 21-personnel, where both Josh Oliver and CJ Ham will see the majority of their snaps.

The Vikings use motion on 48.4% of their snaps, the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL. (The Giants use motion on a league-low 36% of snaps.)

The Vikings also rarely throw to the left, something that was evident on J.J. McCarthy’s film from when he was at Michigan as well.

Overview

The Vikings have been one of the least efficient offenses in the NFL this year, particularly struggling when facing teams with strong defensive fronts.

When allowing a pressure rate below 30%, the Vikings are 3-1; when allowing a pressure rate above 30%, the Vikings are 3-7.

The Giants' defense, despite their significant investment in the front four, has crossed the 30% pressure rate in just six games this season, and only twice in the back half of the season.

Considering how bad the Giants' defense has been at many points throughout the season, this could be a battle between a very stoppable force and an even more movable object. 

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