Giants Still Hold No. 1 Pick in Draft; Here’s How They Keep It

The Giants have a chance at landing the first overall pick in the NFL draft for just the third time in franchise history, and the first time since 1965.

NFL Draft | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

If there is a silver lining in this dismal 2025 season for the New York Giants, it’s that they still hold possession of the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft with three games to go.

But if the Giants are to hold the coveted spot, they will simply need to lose their remaining three games against the Vikings at home next week, the Raiders on the road, and the Cowboys at home.

Sounds simple enough, but there are a couple of things to keep in mind. First, the Giants are not committed to tanking the rest of the way, a point reiterated seemingly every week by the players and coaches, who vow to go down swinging. 

And second, the Raiders, who are also in the running for the first overall pick in the draft,  represent their biggest challenge.

According to The Athletic's playoff predictor, the Giants stand a 92% chance of getting the first overall pick in the 2026 draft if they lose their remaining three games. 

If they lose to the Vikings and Cowboys but beat the Raiders, that chance drops to 1%. Meanwhile, if the Raiders lose their remaining three games (Texans, Giants, and Chiefs), they are assured of the top spot in the draft. 

But if they beat the Giants and lose to the Texans next week and the Chiefs in the regular-season finale, their chance of finishing with the first overall pick drops to 22%.

The other key factor here is the strength of the schedule. The Giants, per Tankathon, have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule, and the Raiders have the eighth-easiest.  

The Giants, according to FanDuel, are an early 2.5 underdog at home against the Vikings this coming weekend after being a 2.5 favorite in Week 15 against the Commanders.

At the very least, the Giants are on track to land a top-five pick in the draft for the fourth time since 2020, and a top 10 pick for the fifth time over that same span. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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