How Giants Can Finish with the No. 1 Overall Draft Pick (Updated)

Here is what needs to happen for the Giants to finish first in the order--and why finishing second might not be as disastrous as it seems.

The top of the 2026 NFL Draft order will be settled following Sunday's Week 18 games. Where will the Giants land? | Sarah Kloepping / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There is good news and bad news for those who are rooting for the New York Giants to finish with the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

The good news is that there is still a clear path for the Giants to finish with the pick, a highly coveted prize among teams that don’t make the postseason.

According to X/Twitter user Doug Analytics, the Thursday night win by the Atlanta Falcons over theLos Angeles Rams has eliminated the Jets from having a chance at the first overall pick in the draft.

That means that if Gang Green desires a quarterback in what appears to be a thin class at the position, the Jets will almost certainly have to entertain a trade with whoever sits within the first or second spot of the order.

Now for the bad news. The Giants, who by virtue of their win last week against the Raiders, need to lose on Sunday against the Cowboys and get some help from the Raiders and some other teams. 

According to “Doug Analytics,” the Giants would need to lose, have the Raiders beat the Chiefs, and have two other scenarios out of four happen for the Giants to end up with the No. 1 pick, given the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker. 

Those scenarios are as follows:

• A Seahawks win over the 49ers 
• A Browns win over the Bengals 
• A Falcons win over the Saints
• A Bears win over the Lions

Absent those conditions being met, the Giants would finish with the No. 2 overall pick in the draft.

NYG 1st Round Draft Pick Scenarios pic.twitter.com/HLbLdLZe74

— Doug Analytics (@Doug_Analytics) December 30, 2025

If both the Giants and Raiders lose, the Giants get the second pick in the draft. 

A possible silver lining for the Giants?

Even if the Giants were to finish with the second overall pick in the draft, there is still a chance they could swing a trade with the Jets, assuming their MetLife Stadium neighbors want a quarterback in the draft.

The Raiders could be looking to replace 34-year-old Geno Smith, a move that would have to be decided before March 15, when $8 million of his $26.5 million base salary becomes fully guaranteed for 2026. 

Doing so would mean an $18.5 million dead-money hit for the Raiders, a team that, per Over the Cap, currently has a projected $104.950 million in cap space (second most in the league), despite already having racked up $34.805 million in dead money.

So if the Raiders were to take a quarterback and there remained a signal caller that might be of interest to the Jets, it would theoretically cost the Jets less in terms of draft assets to trade up with the Giants at No. 2 than it would to trade to the top of the draft order.

We’ll have our answers regarding who drafts where in a matter of days.

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