Mike Kafka Shares Thinking Behind Giants' Critical Fourth Down Decision

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If you’re looking for a turning point in the New York Giants’ 34-27 Week 12 overtime loss to the Detroit Lions, look no further than the fourth quarter and the end of the Giants’ second-to-last drive in regulation.
During that drive, New York, which began on its own 8-yard line, was humming right along, despite two penalties called on the offense, one of which was a delay of game on the second play of the drive and then a holding call against left tackle Andrew Thomas midway through.
But after converting three third-and-long situations, including a 3rd-and-17, the Giants, who made it all the way to the Lions' 2-yard line, saw the drive begin to sputter.
The first sign of trouble came with the play called for the 3rd-and-2 conversion attempt. The Giants, who sent in offensive lineman Aaron Stinnie as part of the jumbo package, ran running back Devin Singletary to the left end, where he was promptly dropped for a loss of four yards by Aiden Hutchinson.
That slow-developing play brought up a 4th-and-6 from the Lions’ 6-yard line–and a very curious decision by interim head coach Mike Kafka, who, instead of taking the points and giving his team a 6-point lead, decided to go for it, only to have quarterback Jameis Winston miss on a short pass over the middle intended for tight end Theo Johnson.
“We did want to be aggressive,” Kafka explained after the game when asked about that decision.
“Just thought it was a good time to take points in that situation. Go up two scores and just hit a good flow. Wanted to just go up two scores.”
“We are desperate for a win. That’s one of the things I was echoing in the locker room, let’s be desperate for a victory," added quarterback Jameis Winston.
"This is one of the best teams in the NFL. We came here on a mission, and we didn’t complete that mission. We have to find a way, and whatever it takes, we are willing and able to do it.”
Kafka didn’t say if he was following the recommendations of the analytics, but while analytics suggest that it was the right way to go given the time left on the clock, what ended up happening was that the Giants ended up making it easier for the Lions to march down the field and tie the game on a long field goal in pristine indoor conditions rather than to force them to have to drive the entire length of the field to get a touchdown to win the game.
Perhaps Kafka, given how the defense had twice let the Lions close a 10-point deficit earlier in the game, had his doubts that the defense would hold up without the cushion.
Regardless of what he really thought, the Giants' defense went on to play off the Lions receiver, making it too easy for them to get into field-goal range, where kicker Jake Bates’ 59-yarder tied the game, sending it into overtime, the gamble blowing up in the Giants’ faces.
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Patricia Traina has covered the New York Giants for 30+ seasons, and her work has appeared in multiple media outlets, including The Athletic, Forbes, Bleacher Report, and the Sports Illustrated media group. As a credentialed New York Giants press corps member, Patricia has also covered five Super Bowls (three featuring the Giants), the annual NFL draft, and the NFL Scouting Combine. She is the author of The Big 50: The Men and Moments that Made the New York Giants. In addition to her work with New York Giants On SI, Patricia hosts the Locked On Giants podcast. Patricia is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America and the Football Writers Association of America.
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