Jaguars Mailbag: The Walker Little Dynamic, Budda Baker and More
Each week during the offseason, we will be taking questions on the biggest questions facing the Jacksonville Jaguars until Week 1.
You can submit your questions every week by tweeting them to the Jaguar Report Twitter handle or by submitting them here.
In this week's mailbag, we take questions on what to do with Walker Little, whether the Jaguars should trade for Budda Baker and more.
Q: If you were to pick 5 players and guarantee that one of those players would be the Jags 1st round pick, who would they be?
A: Oh, this is a good one. Based on connecting dots and reading in between some lines, I would go with Nolan Smith, Brian Branch, O'Cyrus Torrence, Anton Harrison, or Matthew Bergeron. The last name is a curveball, but it sure seems like the mid-20s is the range this year where we will see some surprising names come off the board.
Of those five, I think that three will be there. Smith seems like the most unlikely one, with some buzz inside league circles that he could even sneak into the top-10. Branch should be there if he can get past teams like the Patriots and Ravens, but he isn't a lock. Same goes for Torrence, who ideally would have to get past the Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders. Harrison and Bergeron should absolutely be there.
Q: Which round are we picking a tight end? And which day(s) should I go to see it live?
A: I think there is a small chance it happens in the first round if the Jaguars trade back. By all indications, the late first-/early second round seems to be the range where Darnell Washington would enter the conversation for teams. So if they trade back, that would be my guess. If they don't, though, I do think they probably wait until Day 3. They have to take a pass-rusher somewhere with their first two picks, along with likely an offensive lineman and/or cornerback. Tight end is a need, but it is one the Jaguars can sit back and wait on. The same can't be said for their other pressing needs.
In short, I would say go to Day 3. If Michigan's Luke Schoonmaker is, for some reason, there in the fourth, I would assume they sprint to the podium to make the pick.
Q: What are reasonable expectations for the defense if they swing a Budda Baker trade (let's assume it's R3 pick) and take a DL in the first round?
A: I think it is obvious everyone jumped the gun last year when they predicted the Jaguars' big investments in the defense would propel them to a top-10 unit. The Jaguars finished No. 26 in defensive DVOA for the year, and only No. 19 when you consolidate their last eight games of the season. The defense made some incredibly opportunistic plays, but they were also one of the worst pass defenses in the league on third-down.
In short, the Jaguars' defense still has a long way to go from a year ago. If you simply add Budda Baker and a first-round pass-rusher like Nolan Smith, Lukas Van Ness or Myles Murphy to that same unit, you should be able to expect a major step. Are we talking top-5? No, but it could be a defense that can limit passing games much more effectively than a year ago. I think adding Baker and a first-round pass-rusher to the current defensive roster would give them, at least, a top-16 defense with the room to grow as younger players continue to develop.
The Jaguars' biggest issues on defense last year were bringing the quarterback down and defending the slot and middle of the field. Baker would help with the Travis Kelce's and CeeDee Lamb's of the world in a big way, so there is no question he would elevate the Jaguars' defense as a whole.
Q: If Baalke reverts to his SF pattern and has an off-the-wall weird draft, who does he take at 24?
A: If Keion White counts (he was invited to the draft, so maybe he shouldn't), then I would say him. He currently ranks No. 41 for Grinding The Mocks' Expected Draft Position, so it is safe most mocks do not have him near the first-round. If you want to get even weirder, I would say Syracuse offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron. Most publications have him as a second or third-round talent, but the Jaguars sent offensive line coach Phil Rauscher to his pro day. Maybe they sense a run on tackles and take him a round earlier than most expect?
Q: Do the Jags have interest in signing a vet pass rusher?
A: I can honestly say that I haven't heard anything on a veteran pass-rusher ... yet. I still think the Jaguars are a prime candidate to add one, but there is a reason that Bud Dupree just signed a one-year, $5 million deal -- the market is dead until after the draft. Teams don't want to potentially lose compensatory picks for 2024, so most are waiting until after the draft to sign players during the period where the compensatory pick period ends.
I think the Jaguars could still sign a veteran pass-rusher. I just do not have any inclination to think it will happen soon.
Q: Do the Jaguars not feel as good about Walker Little as the fan base does? A tackle in the first round would only really make sense if they don’t plan on Cam or Walker Little being around long-term, and I haven’t heard many rumblings about them not being happy with Cam.
A: I think the Jaguars are incredibly high on Walker Little, especially after what he showed last year. Little has a tough luck of the draw in terms of starting because he was drafted to a team with two established starting tackles, but that has never been an indictment against him.
The reason you are seeing tackles mocked to the Jaguars is largely because of exactly how valuable Little was last season. Nobody thought of Little as one of the team's most important players during the first half of the season, but once Robinson went down it became clear how effective of an insurance policy a third starting tackle is. And, honestly, with Robinson's season-ending knee injury last year, a tackle seems more like Robinson insurance than Little insurance.
