Which Jaguars and NFL Props Make Sense Ahead of Week 1?
Fantasy season is just around the corner but just because you may not be drafting yet doesn’t mean the action can’t get started. Season-long prop bets are a fun way to invest in your favorite teams and players and to make your betting money last a long time. You aren’t relying on a bunch of other people's schedules to line up and unlike drafting you are in full control of the players you pick. What makes your favorite players smashing all season long better? Winning money with it!
We all expect the Jaguars offense to take another leap in 2023 and we expect it with confidence. I know we’ve overhyped this team way too many times but this time feels different. The quarterback and head coach are in place. The results started to show. The team added weapons. The hype is real.
Fortunately for us, the books don’t necessarily think the leap will be as huge as it will be and it shows in some of the betting lines they have released. (All lines from Draftkings Sportsbook) Here are four season-long prop bets I will be playing this season. Let’s dive in!
Trevor Lawrence: Over 4050.5 passing yards, -110
The Prince who was Promised has arrived and he is all the prophecies said he would be. Trevor Lawrence looks to submit his spot as a top-tier quarterback in this league and I was honestly shocked to see his passing yards line this low. He passed this total in 2022 with 4,113 passing yards when it didn’t even feel like the offense started clicking until the second half of the season. Lawrence also posted four games with less than 200 passing yards. Not only does adding Calvin Ridley give the Jaguars a legitimate No. 1 receiver, it now upgrades the fourth option in the passing game from Marvin Jones Jr. to Zay Jones.
This offense has several options for Trevor to throw to and for Doug to scheme up. Speaking of Doug, last time he had a quarterback enter year two in his system he turned Carson Wentz into an MVP candidate. CARSON WENTZ! With a whole offseason to grow in this offense I see Lawrence comfortably crossing this number.
Calvin Ridley: Over 70.5 receptions, -110
If we’re expecting to take advantage of the books on Trevor’s number it only makes sense to attack one of his targets too. The reception line for Calvin Ridley has been set to 70.5 and I love this over. We’ve all paid attention to camp and Ridley has sure looked as advertised. All reports are that he absolutely cooked up in Detroit and I can’t be more excited. Ridley should be the most targeted receiver in this offense and only needs just over four catches a game to hit this bet.
Per The Mina Kimes Podcast, Trevor Lawrence finished 2nd in the NFL in EPA/Target on out routes only behind Patrick Mahomes. In 2019 and 2020, Ridley had the 3rd most catches on out routes. You do the math. I see this team using Ridley to win quickly vs. man in a similar fashion to what you see from guys like Stefon Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, and Devante Adams. The receptions should come in numbers as Calvin is #Good and he is about to remind everyone of that.
DJ Moore: Over 800.5 receiving yards, -125
Here’s another line that feels way too low. So far in his five-year career, DJ Moore has only failed to reach the 800-yard mark once. His rookie year in 2018 where he only racked up…788 yards. This dude is the definition of QB-proof. He played with Cam Newton his rookie season and after that he’s played with guys like Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold.
I am way higher than consensus on Fields as a passer so I view him as a massive upgrade over anything he’s had recently. This team was forced to hardly throw the ball as they had a receiving core that made the 2021 Jaguars receivers look solid. Defensively, the Bears should still finish in the lower third of the league so the offense should find plenty of garbage time passing situations to rack up yards. Fire up Moore with confidence as he has shown he could hit this line with Todd Bouman at quarterback.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: O 95.5 rec, -110
The last prop I love is Amon-Ra St. Brown over 95.5 receptions. The Sun God is just such a phenomenal player. He is a target and reception monster in an offense that can score with the best of them. In 2021, he caught 90 passes on 119 targets and last year he caught 119 passes on 146 targets. They feed him the ball and he catches a high percentage of his targets. It shows as he finished 8th in the league in targets and his 28.1% target share was good enough for 11th.
With an average depth of target (ADOT) of 6.2 yards a 44.7% route win rate vs man (7th in league), the Lions love to let him get open and feed him quickly. Jameson Williams is suspended the first six games, Goff gets another year of development under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and they will be giving the majority of their playing time at tight end to a rookie after they shipped Hockenson to Minnesota last year. Amon-Ra should easily find himself with another 150+ targets and it honestly wouldn’t shock me if this guy led the league in receptions. (Stats via www.playerprofiler.com)
Let me know if you agree or disagree with any of these and which props you’ll be laying this season. Thanks for reading.
