Mock Draft Roundup: McShay Slots a Surprise to Jaguars in Latest Projection

Could the Jacksonville Jaguars really pick a corner at No. 33 for the second year in a row? That is what ESPN's Todd McShay thinks.

'Tis the season for mock drafts, a yearly tradition in which media attempt to project how the second-biggest day on the NFL calendar plays out.

As we inch closer and closer to the 2022 NFL Draft, we will be tracking how other national media outlets are projecting the Jacksonville Jaguars to attack the draft and build around 2021 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence.

The Jaguars still have a long way to go before deciding on the No. 1 overall pick in April, including figuring out their future direction at both head coach and general manager.

But until then, we can continue to debate the merits of the Jaguars' options at No. 1 overall and what the Jaguars could ultimately decide to do.

So, what is one potential scenario for the Jaguars at No. 1 overall? In this edition of Mock Draft Roundup, we take a look at long-time ESPN NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay's latest Jaguars projection and how we see it.

No. 1 overall: EDGE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan

"Best player available. Big need. Perfect match. Jacksonville tied for the fifth-fewest sacks in 2021 (32), and its 27.8% pressure rate ranked No. 20 in the NFL. Hutchinson would instantly provide the Jaguars with a relentless, explosive disrupter on the edge opposite Josh Allen," McShay wrote. "There's still a chance that the Jags favor one of the top offensive tackles in the class -- NC State's Ikem Ekwonu or Alabama's Evan Neal -- even after they franchise-tagged left tackle Cam Robinson and signed guard Brandon Scherff. But I just don't see them passing on Hutchinson's ability to be a tone-setter on defense."

With the Jaguars placing the franchise tag on left tackle Cam Robinson earlier this offseason, it is clear Aidan Hutchinson is the new favorite to go No. 1 overall. The most commonly mocked position to the Jaguars at No. 1 was offensive tackle entering the combine, but the Jaguars have over $16 million committed to Robinson for 2022 and still need a pass-rush partner for Josh Allen. Since free agency began, this has shifted toward Hutchinson.

Our view

From measurables to his production to checking all of the boxes coaches and scouts seem to love off the field, it is hard to not think of Hutchinson as the favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick. He has been the darling of the draft community and most scouts and coaches when quoted in articles, making it clear the NFL sees him as a safe bet in this class.

Per TruMedia and PFF, the Jaguars defense finished No. 26 in sacks (32.0), No. 13 in pressure percentage (9.6%), No. 22 in quarterback hits (91), and No. 32 in fumbles forced (2.0). Josh Allen (7.5) and Dawuane Smoot (6.0) combined for 13.5 sacks, but no other Jaguars' defender had more than 3.0. And in terms of edge rushers, the Jaguars' backups (K'Lavon Chaisson, Jihad Ward, Lerentee McCray, Jordan Smith) combined for just three sacks. Ward and McCray have since become free agents.

The Jaguars did add Arden Key in free agency, but that doesn't erase the need for an edge rusher. Key is best as an interior rusher on obvious passing downs, creating the short-term need for a pass-rusher opposite of Allen. Add in the fact the Jaguars have their top two pass-rushers on expiring deals and it seems obvious to me that edge rusher is the priority at No. 1 overall.

Is Hutchinson the right edge rusher at No. 1 overall? Maybe, maybe not, but it isn't a stretch to think he is the most logical option for the Jaguars as long as they do end up staying at No. 1.

No. 33 overall: CB Kyler Gordon, Washington

The Jaguars added to the cornerback room this offseason by signing free agent cornerback Darious Williams to a three-year deal. They also drafted a cornerback last season, taking Georgia cornerback Tyson Campbell at No. 33 overall after drafting Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 and Travis Etienne at No. 25.

"No team allowed a higher opponent QBR than the Jaguars last season (55.7), and their seven interceptions tied for the second fewest. Jacksonville was active in free agency and signed Darious Williams, but that shouldn't exclude the team from adding more to the cornerback room at the draft," McShay wrote. "Gordon didn't run quite as well as expected at the combine, but he can play inside or outside and is a sudden defender with the ability to stick on receivers like Velcro."

In opting to select a cornerback, McShay passed on other positions such as linebacker, guard, wide receiver, and tight end. Players such as Western Michigan wide receiver Skyy Moore, Georgia linebacker Quay Walker, Tulsa offensive lineman Tyler Smith, and Georgia wide receiver George Pickens went in the following 10 selections after the Jaguars in this scenario.

Our view

Yes, the draft is about building for the future and putting together a foundation for beyond 2022. But even with this in mind, it is still hard to make any case at all for a cornerback at No. 33. Even in the context of cornerback Shaquill Griffin potentially not being on the roster in 2023, it is hard to imagine a cornerback who would be the No. 4 cover man as a rookie would make sense for the Jaguars with their second-most valuable pick.

The Jaguars need to come away with an impact player at No. 33. No matter how much of a rebuild they are facing, they still need to build toward becoming a more complete and competitive team in 2022. And taking a cornerback who would play sparingly as a rookie wouldn't help accomplish that. 

The Jaguars need cornerback depth; we saw last season just how quickly a cornerback depth chart can deteriorate. But the Jaguars don't need it enough to the point where they should take a corner at No. 33 overall. The Jaguars have made their bed at cornerback for 2022, and it doesn't appear there is a CJ Henderson or Sidney Jones type player to trade to free up any spots.