5 Predictions for Jaguars Vs. Texans: DJ Chark Bounces Back

With the first half of the 2020 season officially in the books, each of the NFL's 32 teams find themselves in contrasting situations. Some are vying for divisional titles, others are scratching for Wild Card spots, and others are trying to salvage their seasons after poor starts.

For the 1-6 Jacksonville Jaguars and the 1-6 Houston Texans, the two teams fall into the final category. Each of the two sides is attempting to turn around their season and find their second victory of the season, but the opponents will take vastly different paths toward victory.

With this in mind, here are our individual and team predictions for Sunday's Week 9 bout between the Jaguars and the Texans.

DJ Chark catches at least six passes for at least 75 yards -- along with a touchdown

It is no secret that DJ Chark has struggled to get his season off the ground in 2020, though the reasons for why his production has dipped varies depending on who you ask. Add in the fact that he gets a potential downgrade at quarterback due to Gardner Minshew's injury and sixth-round rookie Jake Luton's debut, and it would be understandable for some to be down on Chark's chances to make an impact in Week 9.

We think this is the week Chark gets back on track, however, in large part due to the secondary he will face. Chark drew a tough matchup in Week 5 against the Texans, catching three passes for 16 yards on four targets. The largest reason for his struggles, outside of quarterback play, was a terrific performance from Houston's No. 1 cornerback Bradley Roby. Roby is now set to miss Sunday's rematch, the Texans announced today, giving Chark a much easier matchup against either Vernon Hargreaves or Philip Gaines. With Luton having so much inexperience, we think the Jaguars look to take advantage of this matchup with some quick throws.

James Robinson gets 30 touches

With an inexperienced rookie quarterback set to take his first NFL snaps on Sunday, it would be foolish to think the Jaguars are going to ask Luton to throw the ball 40+ times like they have asked Minshew to do. Perhaps the Jaguars and offensive coordinator Jay Gruden surprise us, but it would be the expected and logical move to see the Jaguars lean on James Robinson and the running game in Luton's debut.

"That’ll be key like it is in every game. We want to stay balanced, have the ability to work different type of protections and play action passes and all that stuff," Gruden said Wednesday. "If those [are] only good on first, second down, you get to third-and-8 or you get behind the lot, you’re one dimensional, so that’s going to be critical. James [Robinson]’s going to be a big part of our game plan for sure and we have to get him going.”

We think this is a game the Jaguars make Robinson their entire offense. They will obviously ask Luton to make some plays in key situations such as third downs, but we think Robinson is who fuels the offense otherwise. Robinson has a career-high of 26 touches (22 carries, four receptions) which occurred in Week 7. Robinson rewarded the confidence in him with two touchdowns and 137 yards from scrimmage, showing he can fuel an offense when given a high volume of touches. Now that he has proven he can do it, we think the Jaguars take advantage of his skill set to make things easier on Luton.

The defense fails to record a sack

After years of Jacksonville's pass rush defining their defense, the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league at getting to the quarterback in 2020. They have recorded just six sacks in seven games and have the second-worst adjusted sack-rate in the NFL, according to FootballOutsiders. To make matters worse, we have recent evidence of Houston shutting the Jaguars down in pass protection (one sack allowed in Week 5). As a result, we predict the Jaguars will get blanked in terms of sacks on Sunday.

Despite Houston having an offensive line that has struggled to keep Deshaun Watson clean (22 allowed sacks, 30th in adjusted sack rate), the Jaguars just have not shown any ability to consistently get after the quarterback. This is made worse by the fact that the Jaguars have a secondary that has been beaten repeatedly this season. The Jaguars have sacked Watson just twice in their last two meetings, a mixture of all of the aforementioned issues and Watson's own slipperiness in the pocket. Put all of these factors together and the Jaguars' defensive line has a tough matchup on Sunday.

Jake Luton finishes with a passer rating of below 75.00

There is a lot to like about Jaguars rookie Jake Luton. He has the size, arm strength, and intelligence one would want in an NFL quarterback, and he seems well-liked by both his teammates and coaches. With that said, it is hard to predict for the sixth-rounder to step into Houston and right away look like a quarterback who can put an offense on his back. With the lack of a preseason, Luton is as behind the eight ball as any quarterback who has ever started in Jaguars history, a circumstance that isn't his fault but is the sheer reality.

We think the Jaguars will do what they can to make things easy on Luton, but the Jaguars have simply been unable to get anything going against J.J. Watt and the rest of the Texans in recent years. In the last three games against Houston, the Jaguars have scored 29 points (9.66 points per game) and three touchdowns (one touchdown per game). Considering this will be Luton's first start, we think these factors result in him ending the game with a passer rating below 75.00.

Jacksonville loses 33-16

While the Jaguars have some things working in their favor this week, such as the lack of Whitney Mercilus and Bradley Roby, we predict the Jaguars will lose 33-16 and fall to 1-7. Houston isn't a good team, and may not even be a better team than the lowly Jaguars, but they have one of the best quarterbacks in the league behind center in the same week a sixth-round rookie is making the start at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville will make this game interesting to start due to success from James Robinson, but ultimately the defense will be unable to stop Watson from making the explosive plays needed to get past the Jaguars.

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