5 Predictions For the Jaguars 2023 Season

The 2023 season is here.

In just a few days, the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions will kick off in the first game of the year, with the Jacksonville Jaguars and the rest of the league following shortly behind.

With the Jaguars set to open vs. the Indianapolis Colts on the road in Week 1, we are taking a final chance to lay out our predictions for the 2023 season.

From Trevor Lawrence to Calvin Ridley to the pass-rush, here are our predictions for the Jaguars' 2023 season.

Trevor Lawrence breaks franchise single-season record for touchdown passes, passing yards

The Jaguars have everything in place for Trevor Lawrence to join the 5,000-yard club this season. They are returning Doug Pederson, offensive coordinator Press Taylor and quarterbacks coach Mike McCoy. They are returning a 1,000-yard receiver in Christian Kirk, two legitimate weapons in Zay Jones and Evan Engram, and a 1,000-yard rusher in Travis Etienne. They are also adding a Pro Bowl-level talent in Calvin Ridley, who could establish himself as one of the NFL's best receivers this season.

As a result, we have Lawrence breaking the two major Jaguars passing records: touchdown passes, which Blake Bortles holds with 35 from the 2015 season; and passing yards, which Bortles holds with 4,428. Our prediction is that Lawrence smashes both records, finishing with north of 5,000 yards and hitting 40 passing touchdowns.

Calvin Ridley leads team in every major receiving category

Christian Kirk was the Jaguars' clear No. 1 wide receiver a year ago, but we have that changing this year with the addition of former Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Ridley looked like a legitimate alpha receiver during the offseason, training camp and preseason, showing off rare game-changing ability the Jaguars didn't even have on last year's top-10 offense.

Kirk will still get his targets; so too will Zay Jones and Evan Engram. But Kirk's outside snaps are going to see a big dip with the addition of Ridley, whose presence could force the Jaguars into more 13 personnel looks with just one isolated receiver outside. Ridley will take away targets and snaps from everyone, but likely Kirk most especially. And with that as a reality, it makes the most sense to see Ridley finish as the top receiver.

Travon Walker and Josh Allen combine for 16 sacks

One thing the Jaguars must see happen in 2023 is a leap forward from their young pair of edge rushers. The Jaguars poured a top-10 pick into Josh Allen and last year's No. 1 pick into Travon Walker, but last year didn't see the duo light up the stat sheet as the Jaguars finished the year bottom-10 in sacks. A year after the duo combined for 10.5 sacks, we have their production increasing to 16 sacks between the two of them.

The pair had a strong training camp, but it still feels as if the Jaguars don't have the complete pass-rush unit to produce big-time results for any one player. It wouldn't be a shock if Allen hit double-digit sacks and Walker finished somewhere between six to eight sacks. Walker had several plays wiped out due to penalties last year and missed a number of near-sack in his own right, but he also had one of the lowest pass-rush win rates in the league among qualifying edge rushers. He should improve, but it is both more important and more probable for him to improve his down-to-down efficiency than it is for him to hit double-digit sacks.

Jaguars win AFC South, earn No. 2 seed

There is a very real chance the Jaguars finish the 2023 regular-season with equal or more wins as the Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals, and Buffalo Bills. The Bengals and Bills have several legitimate divisional foes who will push them, with the Baltimore Ravens, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins chief among them. As for the Jaguars, they will play six games vs. a weak AFC South and four more games against a weak NFC South.

The Chiefs are the biggest threat to the No. 1 seed, though, and a Week 2 game vs. Kansas City could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Jaguars will have their work cut out for them vs. the Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes diced up their defense on two different occasions last year, especially with DaVon Hamilton ruled out. It seems like Chris Jones is unlikely to play, too, which obviously helps the Jaguars, but a likely Chiefs win could help decide exactly how the Jaguars finish 2023.

Pass defense finishes as a bottom-10 unit

The Jaguars' defense is hoping that consistency and continuity will produce improved results this fall. Jacksonville is more or less running it back on defense after a year in which the Jaguars' defense finished No. 26 in DVOA largely because of a pass defense that finished No. 30 in DVOA and finished bottom-seven in passing yards allowed per game, missed tackles, sacks, and sack percentage. The Jaguars are bringing back 11 of 11 starters, with the only change being the loss of Arden Key and a loss of Dawuane Smoot for four games.

Maybe a second year in the system helps the Jaguars work out any kinks that led to coverage busts a year ago. Maybe K'Lavon Chaisson finally turns the corner and helps alleviate the loss of Key. Maybe Caldwell is able to scheme up enough pressure to make up for any depth shortcomings up front. But the Jaguars are relying on a lot of maybes. For now, our bet is that the Jaguars' pass defense has another year of below-average results. Teams being forced to pass against them likely won't help their case, but the bed has been made in this regard.

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