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Breaking Down Jaguars Rookie Jake Luton's Performance in His NFL Debut

Jake Luton turned in a successful first start in the NFL, outside of coming up short of the win. But when looking deeper, how did Luton perform?
John Shipley|
Breaking Down Jaguars Rookie Jake Luton's Performance in His NFL Debut
Breaking Down Jaguars Rookie Jake Luton's Performance in His NFL Debut

The biggest storyline out of Jacksonville right now is clear -- with a 1-7 record and a bleak second-half schedule, all the attention is now on rookie sixth-round quarterback Jake Luton.

Luton made his NFL debut in place of an injured Gardner Minshew in Week 9, going toe-to-toe with Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson in a 27-25 loss. While he didn't get the win, he did put out some interesting tape for the Jaguars to evaluate. 

So, how did Luton perform in his first NFL start? We look at the numbers, what his coaches said, and what the tape tells us to find the answer.

What His Coaches Said

“I think everything that we said after the game, I pretty much reiterate it and I think I felt the same way. Then I think it goes back to, ‘Hey listen, what are the next steps?’, talking about some footwork stuff, some scrambling drill, accuracy when he’s scrambling, and then just see, just keep bringing him along and hopefully he’ll get better the more he plays,"

Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone

said on Monday. 

"I mean, you almost look at it as almost that’s really like preseason Game One as far as getting out there and going to play. He did some good things and like I said, I think when Gene asked a question last week, you don’t get too high, you don’t get too low. He doesn’t, so he prepares the same way every time, works hard, and we’ll just see how he goes out there and performs."
“Well I thought for his first game ever with limited reps, I thought he did an outstanding job really. I mean if you think about how much you talk about being a quarterback and how repetition is king and for him not to get any since training camp, and even in training camp he got few or far between, for him to step in his first NFL game and stand in there and take some shots and make some throws, I thought it was really incredible,"

Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said on Wednesday. 

"Not many guys in their first game with that limited exposure can step into the fire like that and perform like he did. Obviously, there’s some throws I’m sure he wishes he had back and some opportunities that were missed, but overall from the way he was on the sidelines, the poise, the control that he had at the line of scrimmage, using the play clock, changing protections from time to time, I thought was great. ... unfortunately, we didn’t get the win, but as far as Jake’s concerned, I think there’s a lot to like.”

It is clear Jacksonville's coaches were pleased with what they saw from Luton in his first start. Expectations were likely a bit low considering Luton didn't have a single preseason game to help prepare him, but Luton did everything n his power to leave a positive impression on both Doug Marrone and Jay Gruden.

But what do the tape and data say about Luton's NFL debut? We take a look at the good and the bad below. 

What The Numbers Say

Luton finished his NFL debut by completing 26/38 passes (68.42%) for 304 yards, giving him 8.0 yards per attempt. He also threw a touchdown and an interception, ending the game with a passer rating of 90.0. He had one rush of 13 yards for a touchdown.

The advanced metrics paint an interesting picture for Luton's first start. Per Pro Football Reference, Luton recorded an adjusted yards per attempt of 7.30 and 7.20 net yards gained per pass attempt. 

Luton finished his debut with an expected completion percentage of 71.1 %, the sixth-highest in the league in Week 9. This means Luton was generally given a lower difficulty of throws, leading to his completion % above expectation to be just -2.7, the 19th-highest of all quarterbacks in Week 9.

Expected Completion Percentage is defined by NFL Next Gen Stats as: “an indication of the level of difficulty of a quarterback's throw.” NGS says that “the level of difficulty of a specific throw is determined by in-play features specific to each play.” Such “features” include the distance of the throw, the pressure the passer is under, and receiver separation.

According to rbsdm.com, which tracks each NFL play, Luton had 0.172 EPA per play in Week 9, ranking 17th of 29th. So all in all, the advanced metrics say Luton wasn't a top passer in Week 9, but he was also far from one of the worst.

The Good

It is impossible to talk about Luton's NFL debut without talking about his 73-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark on the third offensive play of the game. Luton had a solid day on passes of 20 yards or more, completing 3/7 passes, and this play set the tone. 

On Luton's second pass attempt, a third-and-8 from Jacksonville's 27-yard line, Gruden called a vertical shot to Chark to get his Pro Bowl receiver into a rhythm. Luton saw Chark win on his inside release and gave him a perfect ball in terms of accuracy, anticipation and velocity. Luton noted after the game that this was a rep he and Chark failed to connect on during practice last week, so to hit the pass perfectly in a live game situation was a big-time throw.

In terms of the plus-traits Luton showed off in his debut, the most noticeable was his arm strength and his willingness to play from the pocket. Luton never looked too flustered by the pass rush, typically stepping up in the pocket to deliver a pass with pressure in his face. This had been an issue with Gardner Minshew in the previous seven games, but Luton is less mobile than Minshew and as a result is more prone to stick in the pocket despite defenders in his face.

This showed up on this 20-yard completion to DJ Chark in the fourth quarter. With 2:07 remaining in the game and the Jaguars down 27-19, Luton looked to Chark down the right sideline to help the Jaguars get past midfield. The throw he did so with? A tight-window fastball to Chark in the Cover 2 "Honey Hole". 

Cover 2 coverages leave a vulnerable space to attack between the boundary cornerback and the safety -- but it is a risky throw to attempt. It takes courage and a big arm. Luton showed off both, stepping up from a J.J. Watt rush and fitting the ball into the sideline before the safety could make a play.

Another big-time throw from Luton was this 17-yard strike to Tyler Eifert. On a play-action call from Jay Gruden, Eifert ran a crossing route and got some separation from the linebacker as long as Luton put the ball on his outside shoulder. 

The issue, however, was that the Texans safety recognized the play-design and quickly came crashing down on Eifert to disrupt the pass. This meant Luton had an extremely small window to fit the ball into -- or else, it would likely be an interception. Despite the high degree of difficulty of this throw, Luton was able to fit it into the window and pick up the explosive gain. Credit to Eifert for the catch, also.

Lastly, one can't put together a collection of Luton's best plays and not mention the 13-yard touchdown run he had with 1:46 left in the game. This run put the Jaguars within two points of tying the game and showed the rookie passer willing to trust his protection before a running lane opened up. He then showed off a terrific stiff arm and spin move to score the improbable touchdown.

The Bad

While Luton did plenty of good things in his debut, there were still a number of things he will have to improve on. Some of his issues were obvious cases of his inexperience, both in general at quarterback for the Jaguars and his lack of experience with this current group of receivers. It needs to be remembered, after all, that the week of practice leading up to Week 9 is the first time all season he has really thrown to Jacksonville's starting receivers. 

One of those clear miscommunications happened on this third-and-17 pass that was meant to target Chris Conley. I say meant to target because the Texans defense was closer to the ball than Conley was. Luton made the right read but he anticipated Conley to break to the outside instead of the inside, nearly resulting in the interception. It is unclear who the mix up was on, but it is clear Luton will have to ensure he is on the same page as his receivers moving forward.

Another instance in which Luton made the right read but failed to complete the pass was this third-and-9 attempt to DJ Chark down the left sideline. Chark runs another deep out the route here and, due to Houston's coverage, is open basically right away. Luton just has to put the ball accurately to his chest or outside shoulder and keep him in bounds and it is a first down. instead, Luton overthrows the ball a bit and negates Chark's separation, leading to a near catch but ultimately an interception.

These kinds of third-down opportunities are the plays that Luton will need to hit more consistently. Another instance of Luton missing on a makeable third-down throw was on this scramble drill in the first quarter, a play that Minshew has typically made in the past.

Up until the throw, Luton did everything perfectly here. He left the pocket when needed and kept his eyes downfield, allowing Keelan Cole to find his way open down the left sideline. Luton would have to put this pass over the top of the defender, but was unable to. It was a pass that he should have been able to get to Cole for a big gain but instead was an incompletion and a punt.

Finally, Luton's interception on the opening drive of the third quarter was an obviously big moment in the game. Luton was on his way to leading the Jaguars on a terrific drive out of the locker room, but he failed to make a throw under pressure here, leading to a bad interception that took away at least three likely points from the Jaguars.

Part of the blame here should go to Jawaan Taylor for allowing the pressure, but James O'Shaughnessy was streaking downfield wide open here. Luton puts less air on that ball and it likely leads to a catch in which O'Shaughnessy would have to absorb a hit, but a catch nonetheless. Instead, it is overthrown right to the defensive back and was nearly a pick-six had he not been touched down.

Overall

In total, there was a lot to like about Luton's NFL debut. He wasn't perfect, or even close to it, but he hit three big-time throws in key situations that the Jaguars haven't been able to hit all season. 

He will need to clean up his down-to-down consistency and his communication with his receivers, but this should come with more reps. As Marrone said, this was basically the equivalent to his first-ever preseason game. Within that context, Luton had an encouraging first go at it.

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Published
John Shipley
JOHN SHIPLEY

John Shipley has been covering the Jacksonville Jaguars as a beat reporter and publisher of Jaguar Report since 2019. Previously, he covered UCF's undefeated season as a beat reporter for NSM.Today, covered high school prep sports in Central Florida, and covered local sports and news for the Palatka Daily News. Follow John Shipley on Twitter at @_john_shipley.

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