Jaguars vs. Colts: Week 6 Staff Predictions

How does the Jaguar Report staff think Week 6 plays out in Jacksonville?

The Jacksonville Jaguars will play one of their most important games of the season's early slate in Week 6, taking on the 3-2 Indianapolis Colts at home for sole first place of the AFC South.

So how does the Jaguar Report staff see Sunday playing out? We break it down below.

John Shipley

Prediction: The Jaguars have been a tough team to figure out through five weeks, but if their two week trip to London means anything, then they are at least starting to click on offense. The Jaguars' offense has shot themselves in the foot far less than they did over the first three weeks of the season, sans a few Trevor Lawrence fumbles. Otherwise, Lawrence is playing some of the most effective football of his career. He has had arguably the best deep accuracy in the NFL, despite a leaky offensive line that ranks 32nd in ESPN's pass-pro win-rate metric. And him and Calvin Ridley seem to be on the same page, with the duo finally coming together in high-leverage situations last week. 

As for the defense, they have punched far above their weight class and legitimately deserve to be mentioned as one of the NFL's top-10 defenses. They are an elite run defense unit, with the likes of Travon Walker, Josh Allen, Foley Fatukasi, and the entire secondary making plays against the run. This bodes well vs. a Colts offense that wants to lean on the zone running game. 

Since the Jaguars' defense has made things tough for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, I think they can do the same this week against Gardner Minshew. The Jaguars will likely lose the trenches battle on offense, but I think the defense has an effective day. The Jaguars simply match up well against this Colts team on both sides of the ball -- better than they ever matched up with the Houston Texans in Week 3.

Jaguars 31, Colts 13.

Evan Reier

Prediction: This game feels weird. It's already a rematch in Week 6, Minshew's involved, the Colts are also 3-2 and look like they could win. But on the other hand, Jacksonville hasn't lost to Indy in Duval County since 2014 and just beat the Bills.

If it's not an overly chaotic afternoon, Jacksonville should take advantage of their offensive mismatches and commit to stunning the Colts' rushing attack and forcing Minshew to play well to win. I don't think he will play well enough.

Jaguars 24, Colts 13.

Daniel Griffis

Prediction: The Jaguars face off against the Indianapolis Colts for a Round 2 matchup after Week 1’s Jacksonville victory. This go around, the Colts will be without the volatile rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has shown early signs of greatness. In steps Gardner Minshew who likely brings an entirely new offensive structure in with him. Expect an emphasis on a strong rushing attack and quick pass game to ease Minshew in. I think the Jaguars build off of last week and shred a spotty Colts secondary. I expect another big game for Calvin Ridley against the Colts.

Jaguars 31, Colts 17.

Zach Schultz

Prediction:  After seeing how well the Jaguars defense was able to contain both Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the pocket, I feel good about the team's chances against the Colts and Gardner Minshew. I think the Jaguars stout run defense is able to keep Johnathan Taylor and Zack Moss in check without the threat of Anthony Richardson leaving a tall order for Minshew. He’s at his best when he can complement a run game, hit play action shots, and create some plays out of the pocket. Their game plan should fall right into what the Jaguars do well on defense. 

As for the offense, I think a more polished performance of week one should be expected. Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley look like they are locked in together and the Colts secondary continues to get gashed. Add that with the Colts' Duval curse and I think the Jaguars handle an easy victory 

Jaguars 31, Colts 17.

Kyle Nash

Prediction: This is a tougher game for the Jags than the ‘Duval Devout’ might think. The Indianapolis Colts who the Jags beat on the road in Week 1 with former teammate Gardener Minshew at quarterback over the injured Anthony Richardson could lead overconfidence just as Week 3 did against the Texans. Moreover, the Colts will be inspired to not only prevent the sweep, but also return the favor in breaking a streak of eight straight losses at EverBank Stadium just as Jacksonville was one of the previous 10 at Lucas Oil Stadium before the season-opening victory.

All those intangibles combined with defensive lineman DeForest Buckner doing battle against beat up Jags offensive front is a recipe for the Colts to stay around late in the contest to get something to break their way to escape with revenge. And that doesn’t even mention Jonathan Taylor who is making his return to action Sunday.

That being said, this defense with Andre Cisco who is among the tied for 3rd in the NFL in Interceptions as well as Josh Allen terrorizing backfields is a crushing combo on defense. With Trevor Lawrence delivering dimes on 3rd down against a tough Bills defense last week to win the day, the Jags can build on that to play a clean game. If that happens expect a victory for the first win in EverBank for 2023.

Jaguars 28, Colts 20.

Arnav Sharma

Prediction: After a surprising blowout loss to the Houston Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars seem to have righted the ship a bit. Even though their "get right" win against the Atlanta Falcons was a bit more rocky than ideal, the team's perfect gameplan and execution in London against the Buffalo Bills should have locker room morale at a high.

The Indianapolis Colts gave the Jaguars fits in their week one matchup thanks to quarterback Anthony Richardson's electric playmaking. Richardson, who is currently dealing with a right acromioclavicular joint injury (ie where the shoulder joint meets the collarbone) is currently on injured reserve. In addition, the Jacksonville defense has improved significantly since week one, especially with the emergence of safety Andre Cisco as a steady presence in the secondary. Even though Colts backup quarterback Gardner Minshew might be one of the best backups in the league, he just doesn't have the playmaking ability to make up for Richardson's loss and the Jaguars' defensive prowess.

Given that receiver Zay Jones, one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite scoring targets, is out, the offense may sputter out on a few promising drives. However, Jacksonville has begun finding its offensive identity; with Travis Etienne's recent success as a spacing and ground weapon and Lawrence regularly making jaw-dropping throws, it's hard to imagine the Jaguars losing this one at home. Unless, of course, they drop a stinker.

Final: Jaguars 27, Colts 13.