Jaguars vs. Falcons: Week 4 Staff Predictions

What does the JaguarReport staff think happens this weekend?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are looking for a turnaround in London this weekend, hoping their annual trip overseas will help them turn around a 1-2 start. 

The Jaguars will be taking on the Atlanta Falcons in the first of two games across the pond. 40 of the 52 players on the Jaguars active roster have appeared in a game in London. Calvin Ridley will be making his NFL International Series debut. 

So how does the Jaguar Report staff see Sunday playing out? We break it down below.

John Shipley

Prediction: I have been going back and forth on this one over the last few days, but when my JaguarReport Podcast cohost Gus Logue and I broke down the game in this week's preview episode, I found myself talking myself more and more out of a Jaguars win. And here is why. 

The Jaguars match up well with the Falcons' passing game since Desmond Ridder is among the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL through three weeks, but the Jaguars have also given up the most yards after the catch in the NFL and are among the worst teams in terms of missed tackles. The Falcons have multiple skill players who can hurt the Jaguars after the catch, so I don't think Ridder needs to even do much for the Falcons to generate explosive plays. And while the Jaguars' run defense has been elite through three weeks, they are clearly better at stopping the run between the tackles than they are outside. The Falcons and Bijan Robinson major in attacking the perimeter in the running game, so I could see that being problematic, too. 

As for the Jaguars' offense, I don't love the matchups. The running game will likely be a moot point since the Falcons' run defense has been just as strong as the Jaguars' own run defense. They have the advantage there when the Jaguars have the ball, so expect for the passing game to decide a win or loss. 

And while I think Trevor Lawrence has played good, and even close to great, through three weeks, I struggle to have faith in the passing offense getting back on track quite yet. The Falcons run the kind of press-man scheme that the Jaguars' wideouts struggled with in Week 2, and that was even with Zay Jones healthy. Plus, the Falcons have two legitimate game-wreckers inside and will be matched up with a struggling interior Jaguars line. 

I think the Jaguars are the better team. And they have the better quarterback by, well, a wide margin. But I do not think this is a good matchup for the Jaguars on either side of the ball. 

Falcons 20, Jaguars 17.

Evan Reier

Prediction: Well, the confidence level on this team is shot and the visit to London last year was one of the Jags worst performances of 2022.

That being said, I think the Falcons are too one-dimensional on offense and won’t slice up Jacksonville like CJ Stroud did, and their defense is mediocre at best. Jags get back on track in a tight one.

Jaguars 24, Falcons 20.

Daniel Griffis

Prediction: The Jaguars enter Week 4 with a rather disappointing 1-2 record, despite playing two rookie quarterbacks through the first two weeks. Now the Jaguars will face one of the NFL’s scariest rushing threats led by rookie tailback Bijan Robinson. Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Tyler Allgeier additionally add some threat to a hit-or-miss offense. Desmond Ridder has the most turnover-worthy plays of any NFL QB this season so look for the Jaguars secondary to be on the hunt. The Jaguars’ offense needs to slow down and be themselves. If they can do that, the Jaguars will win.

Jaguars 26, Falcons 19.

Zach Schultz

Prediction: I truly could see this game going in any direction. The Jaguars haven’t exactly given us reason to trust they have a bounce back performance but here I am again thinking they do. They are stopping the run really well this season and that is the key to stopping this Atlanta offense. If they can do that, I think they can capitalize on a few Desmond Ridder mistakes. Offensively I don’t think the Jaguars suddenly flip the switch but ultimately play well enough to win. I’m looking for Etienne and Engram to lead the way 

Jaguars 23, Falcons 20.

Kyle Nash

Prediction: For the disappointment in the short sample size of the Jacksonville Jaguars season, they are doing relatively well defensively stopping the run giving up 84 yards a game. While Atlanta’s Rookie of the Year candidate running back Bijan Robinson is probably the best at his position so far on the Jags' schedule, the Falcon’s quarterback Desmond Ridder is easily the worst they’ve seen yet.

Moreover, Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne has been performing at a high level himself. If he can get some production behind a banged up offensive line, not only is Robinson kept off the field to perform well, but Trevor Lawrence might get better looks to lead an effort that revitalizes the passing game. Should the Jaguars win in London, it would strangely be their first “home” win on the year, but the second outside on Everbank Stadium.

Jaguars 24, Falcons 14.

Ryan Michael

Prediction: Despite moving the ball more efficiently late against Houston, the Jaguars offense has yet to find its footing. The same team that led the NFL in drops during Trevor Lawrence’s first two seasons is back at it again in 2023. There is some subjectivity here, but I’ve charted eight drops through three weeks which is tied with Kansas City for the most in the league, again.  

Atlanta has defended the pass well so far this year, ranking 8th in passer rating (78.5), 4th in completion percentage (58.3%) and 5th in YPA (5.6) surrendered. Establishing the run is important if effective early, but aiming and committing to a big rushing day regardless of efficiency will rob Lawrence and the passing game of some much-needed reps to develop rhythm early on. You can win a game here and there with big rushing performances, but Jacksonville will not compete for a playoff spot if the passing game isn’t the driving force behind their success. Coach Pederson knows this, so I expect Lawrence and co. to edge their way past a tough Atlanta defense for the win.

Jaguars 27, Falcons 24.