Jaguars Have Huge Key Disadvantage vs. Chargers

The Jacksonville Jaguars are reeling after suffering a devastating loss to the Houston Texans in Week 10. Not only did they fall to a divisional rival, allowing the Texans to even the season series this year, but they also fell short against yet another backup quarterback. This time, the Jaguars let Davis Mills lead a 90-yard game-winning drive to take the lead with less than a minute left in the contest.

After such a brutal loss, one that saw Jacksonville blow a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter, there was plenty of blame to go around. Some put the defeat on the defense, which allowed Mills and the Texans to score three straight touchdowns in the final period to go ahead. Others put the onus on the offense, which went 3-and-out twice in a row, failing to kill any clock or give their teammates any rest on the other side of the ball.

Many contributing factors led to Jacksonville's crushing loss. Ultimately, it was a much closer game than the 36-29 final score suggests, but the Jaguars were dominated in a couple of key areas. One was the trench play, with the Texans controlling both fronts throughout the game. The other was third-down efficiency.

Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Houston Texans, Trevor Lawrence — Nov 9, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA;Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) scrambles against the Houston Texans in the second half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Jaguars have to win third downs against Chargers

In their loss to the Houston Texans, the Jacksonville Jaguars went just 4-of-11 on third-down conversions. On the other side of the ball, they allowed their opponents to convert on 66 percent of their third-down snaps. That ineffectiveness on both offense and defense led to the Jaguars' ultimate demise in Week 10, with Trevor Lawrence and company failing to maintain the lead, kill the clock, and give their teammates breathers, while they couldn't slow down Davis Mills and the Texans' attack at all in the fourth quarter.

This has been a recurring trend all season for Jacksonville. According to Team Rankings, the Jaguars are 25th in offensive third-down efficiency at 36.4 percent and 30th on defense, allowing their opponents to convert on over 45 percent of their third-down tries. This could be a major point of contention against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 11, who rank 2nd in offensive efficiency on third downs at 47.6 percent and fourth on defense at just 34.2 percent. Head Coach Liam Coen spoke about the Chargers' impressive play on those critical downs:

WILD STAT:

Justin Herbert has experienced more pressures (154) Then the top Defense in the league has generated (Seattle Seahawks: 151) pic.twitter.com/RK0oL4jxeU
— Dan Mitchell (@realdanmitchell) November 12, 2025

"You look, first of all, on offense. Keenan Allen's the most targeted receiver in the National Football League on third down. He can still wiggle and win and separate, strong hands, smart football player, understands how to use leverage and get open in zones. And then obviously, so does Ladd [McConkey] in a lot of ways, where they both have a great feel for zone and winning versus man and having a feel versus zone. They've done a nice job of mixing ball-out plays with also the ability to run the ball on some third downs to be successful, whether it's with the backs or the quarterback, whether it's designed or extending plays."

"We know when we do get our opportunities at Justin [Herbert], we have to take advantage of them and get him to the ground. He is a big dude that can make some plays off-schedule. Then defensively, I think they're extremely sticks-aware from their second to third level of their defense. The rush has obviously done a nice job getting some pressure and being able to affect the quarterback, but I think [DC] Jesse Minter does a great job. I’ve got a lot of respect for him. The zone coverages, they're very aware, and they do a nice job of pattern matching.”

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