4 Jaguars to Watch in Week 6 Vs. the Lions

We examine which Jaguars are the key players heading into the Week 6 game against the Detroit Lions, a must-win game for Jacksonville.

Each week this season, I’ll be highlighting a few specific Jacksonville Jaguars players that I’ll be keeping my eye on based on how they’ve played so far and how I expect them to play in the future.

With the Jaguars (1-4) coming off a fourth straight loss after Sunday's game against the previously winless Houston Texans, there are several players worth tracking over the course of the week. Here is who I’ll be watching for in Week 4 against the Detroit Lions.

QB Gardner Minshew

In the season opener against the Indianapolis Colts, Gardner Minshew completed 19-of-20 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns. After Week 1, he ranked top-five in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating (per Pro Football Reference), as well as second in Completion Percentage Over Expected and seventh in Expected Points Added per play (per RBSDM.com). Since then, however, Minshew ranks no better than 15th in any of the aforementioned statistics among quarterbacks with 75-plus pass attempts since Week 2.

There are several reasons that Minshew has regressed after a strong start to the season, including suspect play-calling (including far too few play-action passes) and inconsistent play from his pass-catchers. But the largest reason for Minshew’s recent woes is the game script.

Jacksonville currently leads the league in time of possession when trailing (per Football Outsiders). In Week 1, the Jaguars never trailed by more than seven points, and Minshew was able to game-manage to his pleasing against the Colts as his average depth of target (aDOT) was just 4.5 yards downfield. But Jacksonville trailed by at least two touchdowns in each of the past four weeks, and Minshew has been forced to throw it farther downfield- he has an average aDOT of 7.3 in Weeks 2-5.

7.3 air yards per pass attempt is still a fairly pedestrian rate, but it’s obviously outside of Minshew’s comfort zone. He had a 0% bad throw rate against Indianapolis but is averaging a 15% rate since then. According to Next Gen Stats, Minshew threw into a tight window on 5% of his attempts in Week 1 but on 16% of his attempts in Weeks 2-5.

The Detroit Lions are allowing the eighth-lowest completion percentage and the fifth-highest aDOT in the league this season- so Minshew may not get as many short, easy throws as he’d like on Sunday. At this point in his career, Minshew appears best suited to not lose games as opposed to winning games on his own. This week’s game against Detroit will be a good test of whether Minshew has what it takes to be a true game-changer rather than a game-manager.

WR D.J. Chark

Jaguars alpha receiver D.J. Chark is clearly an impact player for the team’s offense. In games he played over 75% of snaps (Weeks 1, 2 and 5), Jacksonville is averaging 27.3 points, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and has a point differential of -4.

In games Chark played less than 75% of snaps (didn’t play in Week 3, 67% snap rate in Week 5), the Jaguars averaged just 13.5 points, 5.9 yards per pass attempt, and has a point differential of -34.

Chark’s presence definitely doesn’t have a direct correlation with Jacksonville’s performance, but it’s clear that he does have a significant impact. Chark ranks just sixth on the team in targets but first in yards per target, passer rating when targeted, first down rate and air yards share.

Chark dealt suffered a chest injury against the Titans and then an ankle injury against the Texans and is currently day-to-day, so it’s possible that he won’t be a full-go against the Lions. If he’s less than 100%, Minshew could struggle against the Lions man-heavy defensive scheme considering his discomfort throwing into tight coverage. Chark’s health and impact on Sunday will likely be a major factor in the result of the game.

CB Sidney Jones

In his first start for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sidney Jones recorded a team-high 91.6 Pro Football Focus grade after allowing one catch on five targets on 51 defensive snaps and registering three tackles, three pass breakups and an interception.

It was arguably the best game of Jones’ career, as the only other time he’s topped an 80.0 single-game PFF grade was when he earned an 87.4 grade in Week 16 of 2019 with the Philadelphia Eagles.

Considering Jacksonville’s lack of depth, experience and talent in the secondary, Jones is a strong bet to start again this week against Detroit. C.J. Henderson (63.1 PFF grade) is the only other Jaguars cornerback with a PFF grade higher than 50.0 in 2020, as Chris Claybrooks, Tre Herndon and D.J. Hayden are all allowing passer ratings of at least 128.0 when targeted so far this season.

Jones will need another career performance against perimeter receivers Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., each of whom has an average depth of target of at least 10 yards this season (per Next Gen Stats). Golladay and Jones Jr. have caught just three of seven combined targets 15-plus yards downfield this season but could find success against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed the fifth-highest rate of such passes this season (per Sharp Football Stats).

The Jaguars pass defense is clearly the biggest weakness of the team and it needs all the help it can get. Whether Jones proves his Week 5 performance to be a fluke or not will have a big impact on this week’s game.

DE Dawuane Smoot

Speaking of career games, defensive end Dawuane Smoot had maybe the best single-game performance of his four-year career. In the absence of Josh Allen, Smoot played 40 defensive snaps and registered one sack and two “run stops” - all ranking second-most since he was drafted by Jacksonville in 2017 according to PFF - while his six pressures last week were a career-high and his most since Week 13 of 2018.

Allen is likely to return this week against the Lions, but consistent production from Smoot moving forward would be huge considering the relatively disappointing performances from Allen, Taven Bryan and K’Lavon Chaisson to start the season. Jacksonville currently ranks bottom-12 in the league in pressure rate, PFF pass-rush grade and ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric. The Jaguars are also tied for last in sacks this season, albeit that has a lot to do with the performance of its secondary.

Detroit ranks in the top half of the league in pressure rate allowed, PFF pass-block grade and pass block win rate- but if Smoot is able to build off his Week 5 performance and Allen returns to the field close to full health, that could be enough to finally register adequate pressure against Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense.