Breaking Down All the Possible 2021 Draft Slot Scenarios for the Jaguars, Jets

While the Jacksonville Jaguars are currently sitting at No. 1 overall for the 2021 NFL Draft, the dust has still yet to settle on whether they or the New York Jets will hold the key to the first overall pick.

After all, there are still two more games to be played. Eight more quarters for each team, with the Jaguars playing Chicago at home and Indianapolis on the road, and with the Jets playing Cleveland at home and New England on the road.

With this in mind, we have put on our thinking cap to sort out just what each result over the next two weeks would mean. There are 16 different sets of two-week outcomes for each team, with most resulting in the Jaguars getting the top pick. To help us keep track of the possible scenarios, we will list them below.

Note: we are not including possible ties in this exercise, just wins or losses. Ties would count as half a game in the standings, so a 1-14-1 Jaguars team would pick behind a 1-15 Jets team.

Scenario No. 1: Bears, Browns, Colts, and Patriots win

The most likely scenario to many is for the Jaguars and Jets to each lose out over these next two weeks. The two teams combining for four losses would result in both finishing 1-15.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario No. 2: Bears, Browns, Colts, Jets win.

This is a scenario where the Jaguars lose their next two games but the Jets win in Week 17 against the Patriots, who are 6-8 and currently a mess on offense. This scenario would have the Jaguars finish 1-15 and the Jets finish 2-14.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario No. 3: Bears, Browns, Jaguars, Patriots win.

In this scenario, the Jaguars and Jets both lose in Week 16 but the Jaguars pick up a win in Week 17 against the Colts, who the Jaguars beat in Week 1. This would have the Jaguars finish 2-14 and behind the 1-15 Jets.

No. 1 pick: Jets.

Scenario No. 4: Bears, Browns, Jaguars, Jets win.

This would see each team losing in Week 16 but winning in Week 17, leading to two separate 2-14 finishes. Due to the Jaguars holding the strength of schedule tiebreaker, they would have the edge over the Jets.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars

Scenario No. 5: Bears, Jets, Colts, Patriots win.

If the Jets upset the Browns in Week 16 and this is the only win among the four games, then they would finish 2-14 and with a better record than the Jaguars.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario No. 6: Bears, Jets, Colts, Jets win

This one is self-explanatory since it would feature the Jet at 3-13 and the Jaguars at 1-15, but it feels unlikely.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario No. 7: Bears, Jets, Jaguars, Patriots win.

In this scenario, both the Jaguars and Jets would finish 2-14. Due to the strength of schedule tiebreaker, the Jaguars would finish with the top pick.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario No. 8: Bears, Jets, Jaguars, Jets win.

This would lead to a 2-14 Jaguars record and a 3-13 Jets record. Again it is highly unlikely the Jets win these next two games, but the scenario does exist.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario No. 9: Jaguars, Browns, Colts, Patriots win.

If the Jaguars pick up a win this week and lose in Week 17, the Jets could secure the top pick by losing out like in this scenario.

No. 1 pick: Jets.

Scenario 10: Jaguars, Browns, Colts, Jets win.

The Jaguars and Jets each picking up one win over the next two weeks, and going 1-1 in the process, would mean the Jaguar get the top pick as a result of the tiebreaker.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario 11: Jaguars, Browns, Jaguars, Patriots win.

This one is obvious -- a 3-13 Jaguars finish would pick No. 2 overall behind the 1-15 Jets.

No. 1 pick: Jets.

Scenario 12: Jaguars, Browns, Jaguars, Jets win.

Again, a 3-13 Jaguars finish would mean they are picking No. 2 overall in every scenario except one in which the Jets also finish 3-13.

No. 1 pick: Jets.

Scenario 13: Jaguars, Jets, Colts, Patriots win.

If both the Jaguars and Jets upset their opponent in Week 16 but then lose in Week 17, they will find themselves in the same situation they are currently in -- with the Jaguars at the top.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario 14: Jaguars, Jets, Colts, Jets win.

Two Jets wins would lock up a Jaguars No. 1 pick, especially in the event the Jaguars only win one in the process.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

Scenario 15: Jaguars, Jets, Jaguars, Patriots win.

This is the doomsday scenario for the Jaguars. They win out and see the Jets win only one game, putting them behind New York in the draft order.

No. 1 pick: Jets.

Scenario 16: Jaguars, Jets, Jaguars, Jets win.

Sit up and prepare for the pigs to fly: this scenario sees the Jaguars and Jet both win out and finishing 3-13. This would be the best-case scenario for Jaguars players and coaches because it would mean they can pick up two wins while not catching flak for losing the No. 1 pick.

No. 1 pick: Jaguars.

So there you have it. Out of 16 possible scenarios, there are only five scenarios where the Jaguars don't get the No. 1 pick. And if the Jaguars lose in Week 16 to the Bears, then there will be only one of eight possible scenarios in which the Jets get the top pick.

Essentially, a loss in Week 16 will nearly ensure the top pick. There is still one scenario in which the Jets get the pick, and that would be if the Jaguars win in Week 17 while the Jets lose.

If the Jaguars do win against the Bears, things become much murkier. Out of eight possible scenarios in the event of a Jaguars win in Week 16, four would mean the Jets pick No. 1 while the other four would mean the Jaguars pick No. 1. So, the Jaguars can go from 7/8 scenarios in their favor to just 4/8 if they win on Sunday.

A lot of things can change with the top pick over the next two weeks. The Jaguars and Jets are locked into the top-2 picks, but there are over a dozen different scenarios that can still play out. With this in mind, it is clear just how much Week 16 will factor into this.

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