Can the Jaguars defense change their turnover luck against the Panthers?

The Jaguars defense has forced one defensive turnover through four games.

A somewhat surprising stat is that through the first four weeks of the 2019 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) have only generated one turnover on defense, and it came in the fashion of a Ronnie Harrison interception against the Denver Broncos in week 4. 

While Harrison's timely interception was a momentum shifting play, many are still left wondering when the Jaguars defense will start making the game-changing plays the unit was known for in 2017, when they were second in the NFL in takeaways with 33.  

The Jaguars inability to generate turnovers in the first quarter of the season has been a result of several factors. One factor, often the most important when it comes to notching takeaways, has been bad luck, such as when Josh Allen forced a Marcus Mariota sack in week 3 that bounced back into Mariota's hands.

Other factors have been defenders simply missing opportunities. The two most obvious examples were each vs. the Houston Texans, with Jalen Ramsey dropping an interception which hit him right in the chest and Calais Campbell failed to scoop up a Deshaun Watson fumble that bounced directly in front of him. 

But on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers (2-2), the Jaguars may have their best chance yet to change their turnover luck. After all, the last two defenses that played the Panthers have had such opportunities, specifically when it comes to forcing and recovering fumbles.

In 2019, the Panthers' offense has committed 8 turnovers, tied for third-most in the NFL. The main component of that figure has been 7 lost fumbles, the most in the NFL. 

4 of those 7 lost fumbles have came from quarterback Kyle Allen, who has started the last two games in place of an injured Cam Newton. Allen has been sacked 5 times since taking over for Newton, and each time has corresponded with a fumble, though Allen recovered one himself.

Allen's ball security issues may provide the Jaguars a prime opportunity to create the turnovers they have desperately been trying to force. His fumbles have been the result of several different factors, such as a pocket presence that is still developing for the young quarterback and sometimes hinders him. 

But Allen has also been the culprit of porous pass protection in addition to high-level defenders simply making the plays they are known for. This is a positive development for the Jaguars, who are equipped with pass rushers like Yannick Ngakoue and Josh Allen who have shown a knack for forcing fumbles in the pocket during their careers. 

Despite his fumbling issues, Allen has largely been effective as a passer for the Panthers as he has helped them to two consecutive wins. he has thrown for 493 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions while completing 71.7% of his passes. He has also shown a talent for evading pressure despite his inconsistency with navigating the pocket.

While he has turnover issues, Allen can be a tough matchup for the Jaguars: he is an accurate passer who has largely made smart decisions and has kept the Panthers offense on schedule. 

But as long as Allen has consistency issues navigating a pocket and being secure with the football, he will be a candidate to turn the ball over. And for a Jaguars defense that is looking for a lucky break, he may just be a solution.