How Does Tua Tagovailoa’s Decision to Declare for the NFL Draft Impact the Jaguars?

One of the more momentous decisions ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft took place Monday, with University of Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa announcing he would forego his senior season and declare for April's draft.

Two months after surgery, Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa announced he is turning pro https://t.co/jXTPZmC9Bd
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) January 6, 2020

Don't be mistaken: Tagovailoa's decision will influence every team picking in the first round of the upcoming draft, regardless if they need a quarterback or not.

Tagovailoa was the consensus No. 1 player in the country entering 2019, with many presuming he was a lock to become a Miami Dolphin following their efforts to tank. A lot has changed since then, though.

Miami ended up winning several games and instead of picking first overall, they are slotted to pick fifth, and the Cincinnatti Bengals own the top pick. Meanwhile, the talented Alabama signal-caller suffered through a string of injuries while LSU quarterback Joe Burrow set the college football world on fire on his way to winning the Heisman Trophy.

Tagovailoa's decision to enter the draft comes off the heels of him being sidelined with a dislocated hip, an injury he suffered in Alabama's Nov. 16 win vs. Mississippi State and would have surgery on two weeks later. With his health in 2020 in question, teams have to do their due diligence ahead of the draft.

But even despite those questions, it would still be somewhat foolish to think Tagovailoa won't be at least a top-10 pick in April. And that is how he affects the Jacksonville Jaguars, and many other teams, come draft time.

Will it affect Jacksonville in terms of them potentially selection Tagovalioa with the ninth overall pick, or a trade up? Potentially, but unlikely.

Jacksonville currently has a crowded quarterback room with Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew II. Foles has a giant cap hit following Jacksonville signing him to a four-year, $88 million deal in the 2019 offseason. Releasing Foles before the 2020 season would result in almost a $40 million dead cap hit, while trading him before June 1 would still force Jacksonville to pay him roughly $18 million in 2020. For better or worse, Foles should be expected to be on Jacksonville's roster next season.

But after Jaguars' head coach Doug Marrone benched Foles after just three starts in favor of Minshew, a sixth-round rookie in 2019, it should be presumed that Minshew is Marrone's preferred choice at quarterback going into 2020. Minshew went 6-6 as a starter and broke multiple franchise rookie passing records, so he has earned a shot to start in 2020.

Plus, Marrone will be entering a make it or break it year in 2020. Would he trust a rookie passer with his job? He trusted Minshew in 2019, but his hand was forced.

Instead, Tagovailoa's decision to enter the draft will likely affect Jacksonville because of the teams picking ahead of them. For context, the following teams are slated to pick before the Jaguars in April:

1. Cincinnati

2. Washington

3. Detroit

4. New York Giants

5. Miami

6. Los Angeles Chargers

7. Carolina

8. Arizona

Of these eight teams, it would make sense for five of them (Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Los Angeles, and Carolina) to opt to select a quarterback with their pick. All have long-term quarterback questions and would find themselves in a prime position to take the highest-rated passer left on the board.

This would be good news for a Jacksonville team that doesn't have a sure thing at quarterback, but does have a plethora of other holes they are likely to fill before taking a passer.

With Tagovailoa likely being selected in one of the eight picks before Jacksonville is on the clock, this means the Jaguars have an even better chance of a high-impact player falling to their pick. This could mean left tackle Andrew Thomas, linebacker Isaiah Simmons, wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, or a number of other players.

We see talented players get selected later than they should because of the demand for quarterbacks every season. Just last year, defensive end Josh Allen fell to the Jaguars because the Giants took quarterback Daniel Jones instead.

Jacksonville would be lucky if a similar situation played out in 2020. The odds of it happening are at the very least increased with Tagovailoa officially declaring.

In a few months, we will see just how much Tagovailoa's decision impacts the Jaguars. But as of today, it is good news for a team that desperately needs to hit on their first-round picks.

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