Air it Out: How Has the Jaguars' Offense Distributed the Ball Through 4 Weeks?

Who is carrying the load in Jacksonville's passing game? We break it all down here.

We are now at the quarter-pole of the 2020 NFL season, meaning we have been able to gather enough evidence and data to start drawing conclusions for the rest of the year. There are still 12 games to be played, but we are now seeing teams and offenses start to truly take shape. 

This includes the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are in the first year under offensive coordinator Jay Gruden's tutelage. In Gruden, the Jaguars have gotten an aggressive play-caller who isn't afraid to let his quarterback and receivers serve as the engines of the offense. 

With that in mind, and with a few games finally in the books, we are going to start a new weekly series in which we look at what the numbers say about how Gruden and quarterback Gardner Minshew II are spreading the ball around. 

Using data from Pro Football Reference we will look at targets, target share, air yards and much more as we dive into Jacksonville's passing game and what it means for the offense moving forward. With that said, here is how the Jaguars have distributed the ball through four weeks. 

Targets  

According to PFR, the Jaguars have distributed 142 targets to their skill players through the first four games. Here is how those targets have been divided. It is important to note that DJ Chark has played only three games and Dede Westbrook has played in just one. We will also list target market share, which shows the percentage of targets a player has gotten.

1. Keelan Cole: 23 targets (16% target market share)
2. Laviska Shenault/Chris Conley: 20 targets each (14% target market share each)
3. DJ Chark/Tyler Eifert: 16 targets each (11.26% target market share each)
4. James Robinson: 15 targets (10.56% target market share)
5. Chris Thompson: 12 targets (8.45% target market share)
6. James O'Shaughnessy: 11 targets (7.75% target market share)
7. Collin Johnson: 6 targets (4.22% target market share)
8. Bruce Miller: 2 targets (1.4% target market share)
9. Dede Westbrook: 1 target (0.70% target market share). 

If Chark played in Week 3 against the Dolphins he likely would be much closer to No. 1 than No. 3, but such are the circumstances for the offense. So far this year, Keelan Cole has been Minshew's favorite target but he has basically spread the ball evenly to each of his top four receivers. Minshew has also targeted the tight end and running back positions 27 times each, with varying results.

Look for Chark's target share to continue to rise as the season progresses, pending he stays healthy of course. Otherwise, it seems like a mostly even split among the top skill players in the offense should be expected.

Completed Air Yards/Air Yard %

Air yards is a great stat that shows the yardage a pass travels in the air before it is caught by a player. It essentially helps show the impact that yards after catch have on specific plays and with specific players. For instance, a 50-yard catch looks different if it is a catch-and-run on a screen than it would if it was a downfield pass. The total distance that a football is thrown beyond the line of scrimmage to the point of reception is air yards, and it shows which players are getting the deep shots in the offense. It should be noted that this specific usage of the metric focuses on completions. 

So with that in mind, who is leading Jacksonville in air yards (618 in four games) and air yard percentage? We use PFR data to find the answer.

1. DJ Chark: 173 yards (28% of Jaguars' air yards)
2. Keelan Cole: 120 yards (19.4% of Jaguars' air yards)
3. Laviska Shenault: 108 yards (17.48% of Jaguars' air yards) 
4. James O'Shaughnessy: 71 yards (11.49% of Jaguars' air yards) 
5. Chris Conley: 59 yards (9% of Jaguars' air yards) 
6. Tyler Eifert: 46 yards (7.44% of Jaguars' air yards) 
7. Chris Thompson: 25 yards (4.04% of Jaguars' air yards) 
8. Collin Johnson: 14 yards (2.2% of Jaguars' air yards) 
9. Dede Westbrook: 4 yards (0.6% of Jaguars' air yards) 
10. Bruce Miller/James Robinson: -1 yard each.

It is far from a surprise to see DJ Chark dominate this metric, even with only three games player. Chark is Jacksonville's best deep threat due to his blend of size, speed and leaping ability, and this has shown up throughout this year. If the Jaguars hit a deep shot, it is most likely going to Chark, who was on the receiving end of a 45-yard bomb during Week 2.

It is interesting to see Tyler Eifert as low as he is on this list. He gets more targets and playing time than O'Shaughnessy, but O'Shaughnessy has been the better big-play threat through four weeks.

Yards After Catch/Yards After Catch Per Reception

This one doesn't require any explanation. It is simply the yards a receiver has gotten this year once they have completed a catch. Here is how the Jaguars' skill players have ranked in that regard so far, with their yards after catch per reception in parentheses. Data per PFR. 

1. James Robinson: 162 (11.6)
2. Laviska Shenault: 83 (5.2)
3. Keelan Cole: 74 (3.9)
4. Chris Conley: 73 (6.6) 
5. Chris Thompson: 36 (3.6)
6. DJ Chark: 31 (2.1) 
7. Tyler Eifert: 31 (3.9)
8. James O'Shaughnessy: 24 (2.7) 
9. Collin Johnson: 3 (1.5) 
10. Bruce Miller: 3 (3)
11. Dede Westbrook: 0 (0)

It is far from surprising to see James Robinson taking such a commanding lead. He has had numerous explosive receptions this season in which he took a checkdown and turned it into a giant gain. Through four games, he is one of the most productive running backs in terms of pass-catching overall. 

Chark's low figure may be surprising, but it is worth pointing out that they don't exactly utilize him on yards after the catch-centric plays. He has caught three touchdowns this year that didn't involve yards after catch, while his throws to the sideline and deep downfield are more about air yards. 

First Downs/First Down %

Another self-explanatory one, this will keep track of first downs recorded by each skill player and which percentage of their targets have turned into first downs. 

1. DJ Chark: 13 (81.25%)
2. Keelan Cole: 12 (52.1%)
3. Laviska Shenault: 10 (50%)
4. Chris Conley: 8 (40%)
5. James Robinson: 6 (40%)
6. James O'Shaughnessy: 5 (45.45%)
7. Tyler Eifert: 4 (25%)
8. Chris Thompson: 1 (8.3%)
9. Collin Johnson: 1 (16.66%)
10. Bruce Miller: 1 (50%)
11. Dede Westbrook: 0 (0%)

DJ Chark has been a first-down machine for the Jaguars this season, with nearly every one of his receptions being a first down. James O'Shaughnessy, Keelan Cole, and Laviska Shenault all have solid numbers, while Tyler Eifert's is the most concerning considering how many targets he has. 

Passer Rating When Targeted

One of the most interesting stats of all is passer rating when targeted. It helps put into perspective which receivers the quarterback is having the most success when passing to, while also the ones who are the most disastrous players to target. Here is how Jacksonville's skill group shapes up in this department, via PFR. 

1. DJ Chark: 158.3
2. Laviska Shenault: 123.1
3. Chris Thompson: 115.6
4. Keelan Cole: 112.7
5. James Robinson: 111.4
6. James O'Shaughnessy: 102.7
7. Dede Westbrook: 83.3
8. Tyler Eifert: 58.6
9. Bruce Miller: 56.2
10. Chris Conley: 54.6
11. Collin Johnson: 2.8

Minshew is essentially playing terrific when throwing to his top targets. DJ Chark has turned his targets into first downs or touchdowns more often than not, while Laviska Shenault, Chris Thompson and Keelan Cole have all caught scores as well. Minshew did throw an interception when targeting Cole, which goes to show just how well Cole has done on every other target coming his way.

The concerning numbers on either belong to Eifert, Conley and Johnson. Eifert has not turned his high target total into many big plays, with his Week 2 touchdown the only real big play he has made this season. Conley, meanwhile, had a disastrous Week 3 that was filled with drops and an interception while targeted. Johnson, meanwhile, has a historically low passer rating in a small sample size. He has just six targets, but it appears as if things have gone completely erratic whenever Minshew has thrown the ball his direction. 

Average Depth of Target

The last metric we will look at is the average depth of target, which explains itself in the name. It is the average distance of a pass when a player is targeted, taking both completions and incompletions into account. It shows which players are getting targeted downfield and which are being used on shorter plays. Via data from PFR, here is how the Jaguars rank through four weeks. 

1. DJ Chark: 13.2
2. Chris Conley: 11.5
3. Collin Johnson: 9.0
4. Tyler Eifert: 8.4
5. Laviska Shenault: 8.2
6. James O'Shaughnessy: 7.4
7. Keelan Cole: 5.7
8. Dede Westbrook: 4.0
9. Chris Thompson: 3.3
10. James Robinson: -0.1
11. Bruce Miller: -1.5

This once again goes to show that Chark is Jacksonville's big-play threat, while it also shows the Jaguars are using Keelan Cole as more of their short-yardage receiver. Meanwhile, Chris Conley is at 11.5, which isn't surprising since he has gotten the most deep shots thrown his way after Chark.