Stats Show Jaguars’ 2019 Offense Played With Leads at Nearly a League-Low Rate

According to data from Rotoworld's Hayden Winks, the Jaguars played with a lead at an almost league-low rate in 2019.

Throughout the entirety of the 2019 season, the Jacksonville Jaguars simply struggled to generate positive momentum on offense. From poor red zone efficiency to a passing game that regressed as the season advanced, there are more than a few warts to the unit's performance to pick through.

By seasons end, the Jaguars were 26th in points scored per game, 24th in DVOA, 21st in yards per drive, 26th in points per drive and 28th in drive success rate. Simply put, there were few areas the offense, led by former offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, thrived in and could hang their hat on. 

But one of the more concerning stats from the team's 2019 struggles was released on Saturday by Rotoworld's Hayden Winks. Winks used data to reflect which offenses played with a lead the most, as well as which units played from behind more often. 

When it came to playing with a lead, the Jaguars' offense had the third-fewest snaps in the entire NFL with just under 20% of their snaps coming while winning, per Winks. The only teams the Jaguars finished better than in this metric were the Cincinnati Bengals (31) and Washington (32), the teams who picked in the top-two in this year's NFL Draft. 

How often each offense was leading and trailing: pic.twitter.com/7VsWkGiiwF

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) June 27, 2020

As for playing snaps with a deficit, the Jaguars had more offensive snaps while trailing than any other team in the NFL last season, per Winks. The Jaguars, who trailed on over 70% of their offensive snaps, were directly ahead of both Cincinnati and Washington, meaning the Jaguars had to fight an uphill battle more often than the two worst teams in the league. 

Considering the issues Jacksonville had with falling behind in the first half and starting games slow offensively, none of this is particularly surprising. Last season, the Jaguars scored just 7.4 points per first half, ranked 31st in the NFL and just barely ahead of the Chicago Bears. 

When a team like the Jaguars fall behind early, it is hard for them to generate wins since the premise of their entire team-building strategy is that of a team who excels with a lead. The pass rush can't get home as often and the run game can't be leaned upon as much when the Jaguars are constantly trailing, but the Jaguars have built their roster to rush the quarterback and run the ball. They simply have not been a team built to come from behind in the past.

"It’s really hard, especially for a young quarterback. When you’re in a known passing situation in the second half, there are not a lot of veteran quarterbacks that are very good," offensive coordinator Jay Gruden said in May when asked about playing from behind."There are obviously the superstars, and they are the superstars. If you have a young quarterback, then you have to play close or with a lead to help him out where he could change the launch pad, where it’s not a five-step drop every time out of the gun, and he’s trying to read the defenses and they’re trying to pick up every blitz known to man and every coverage and they’re disguising it, it’s really hard. 

"But when you throw in the running game, and the play action, and the bootlegs, and the quick game later in the games, I mean it can make a quarterback much more effective, obviously. So, it’s going to be very important for us to stay close, get out to fast starts, so we can utilize our entire playbook, not just a portion of it when you’re behind.”

If the Jaguars are to improve upon last year's 6-10 record and abysmal offensive rankings, they will simply need to put more points on the board at the start of games. The hope in Jacksonville is that Gruden and development from Gardner Minshew II in his second year can be just the fix the offense needs.