Jaguars vs. Giants: Can Doug Pederson’s Rebuild Catch Up to Brian Daboll’s This Week?

The New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars weren't exact comparisons entering the 2022 season. Outside of each team being led by a new head coach, the similarities were mostly non-existent.

The Giants were expected to enter a long season, the first step of a lengthy rebuild that featured questions at the quarterback position. The Jaguars, meanwhile, know who their franchise quarterback is and have centered their entire season and offseason around him.

Through six games, the stark differences between the two teams have become more and more apparent, especially in the win-loss column.

Now, the 2-4 Jaguars are hoping to make up ground as the 5-1 Giants visit TIAA Bank Field in Week 7. And to win, the Jaguars will need to show they are able to do the one thing the Giants have proven they can do over and over again: win a close game.

"There are a lot of similarities when you look at the scoring. If you look at the scoring by quarter, there’s a lot of similarities there, both teams," Doug Pederson said on Wednesday.

"I think the number one thing that we have to focus on is us and making sure that we make plays in the fourth quarter."

The Jaguars' four losses have come by six, eight, seven, and seven points -- an average of just a touchdown per loss. There hasn't been a single loss where the Jaguars have had the doors blown off them; in two losses, they held fourth-quarter leads. In the other two, they had the ball at the end of the game with a chance to tie or take the lead.

The Giants, by contrast, have won games by one, three, eight, five, and four points -- an average of 4.2 points per win. The Jaguars' losses have all been coin-flips, while the Giants' wins have been the same way. The difference has been the Giants have come out on the right side of the flip.

"We haven’t done that well enough this year or consistent enough where they are. They’re making those plays," Pederson said.

"They’re in the right spot at the right time. That’s kind of the way this league goes sometimes, the ball bounces in your favor. Give them credit. They’re in the right position to make those plays, and that’s something each week, we learn from ours and try to be in position each week to come up with the ball or make the play that wins the game.”

The differences in fourth-quarter production is staggering for both teams. Giants' quarterback Daniel Jones is No. 10 in EPA/Play and success rate and No. 6 in CPOE in the fourth-quarter among all quarterbacks, while Jaguars' quarterback Trevor Lawrence is No. 20 in EPA/Play, No. 23 in success rate, and No. 20 in CPOE in the final quarter.

In terms of total defense, the Giants are No. 11 in EPA/Play in the final quarter; the Jaguars are No. 17. The Giants are No. 10 in passing EPA/Play allowed; the Jaguars are No. 15. In terms of offense, the Giants are No. 6 in EPA/Play and No. 9 in success rate; the Jaguars are No. 21 and No. 20.

In a league like the NFL where a handful of plays determine each game, the Giants have come up the most in the clutch, while the Jaguars have played arguably their worst football in the fourth quarter.

"It’s a want to. It’s a desire. You see it from the guys. You see it from the team," Pederson said.

"That’s why they’re dejected and kind of ticked off at the end of the game for many reasons, but that’s the main reason, just not being able to finish a game, maybe close out an opponent in the fourth quarter, whether that’s offense running the ball for first downs, getting first downs, or the defense getting off the field on third down. I think those are all hand in hand things that we haven’t been able to do yet.”

The Jaguars will get their chance to right their wrongs and catch up to the Giants' rebuild this weekend. If they don't, expect for the fourth quarter to be the deciding-factor.