Know your enemy: 5 questions and a prediction with Chiefs Digest

Heading into each Jacksonville Jaguars game during the 2019 season and beyond, JaguarMaven will feature a Q&A series with fellow NFL Mavens to give a preview of the Jaguars opponents from the people who know them the most.

With the Jaguars matching up with the Kansas City Chiefs at 1 p.m. Sunday to kick off the 2019 season, Matt Derrick of Chiefs Digest has joined JaguarMaven to discuss how he perceives the matchup, his prediction and more.

It is time to begin to know the enemy.

1. Kansas City returns a lot of offensive players from last years team, which beat Jacksonville 30-14 last season. The Chiefs offensive scheme seemed to give Jacksonville DC Todd Wash major problems last year due to its versatility — do you envision the offense being as multiple yet again?

Chiefs Digest: Expect more of the same from the Chiefs' offense with a few new wrinkles thrown in for good measure. The Chiefs doubled down on their speed advantage during the offseason, adding two blazing rookies in receiver Mecole Hardman and running back Darwin Thompson. They capitalize on their speed in several different ways. One is using a lot of pre-snap motions to create mismatches, whether it's getting Tyreek Hill into single coverage in the slot or working tight end Travis Kelce against a linebacker. Then they try to stretch the field, vertically and horizontally, knowing quarterback Patrick Mahomes can deliver the ball anywhere on a dime and in a hurry.

For all their big-play ability, the Chiefs are content to work short and intermediate routes all day long while setting up their playmakers in space to make tacklers miss.

2. LeSean McCoy reuniting with head coach Andy Reid has been a big story over the last few days due to their history together. Do you envision McCoy being a factor Sunday, or do you think they’ll lean on Damien Williams/Darwin Thompson?

CD: McCoy should certainly be a factor, but it's hard to see him quite yet emerging as the feature back. Reid's offense has evolved since he last played for the coach in 2012, and it will take him time to learn all the new looks and options. But there are pet plays of Reid in both the run and pass game in which McCoy should fit comfortably immediately.

The Chiefs expect to use a running back by committee approach, but also remember this is a pass-first team that loves to utilize its backs in the passing game, even including fullback Anthony Sherman.

3. Jaguars DC Todd Wash said that he envisions cornerback Jalen Ramsey following Tyreek Hill around the field Sunday. Who do you feel has a leg up in that matchup, and do you think it’s a smart move to deploy Ramsey in that role against a deep offense like Kansas City’s?

CD: It's strength versus strength, which should make an enjoyable matchup to watch. It might be a questionable strategy given Hill's penchant for motion and his high endurance, while might wear down Ramsey in keeping up with him. Yet Ramsey defended Hill well last year, holding him to four catches for 61 yards while keeping him out of the end zone.

The key to slowing down Hill is playing him aggressively at the line of scrimmage and preventing him from getting clean breaks. Any team that focuses on stopping Hill, however, then must worry about Kelce and Sammy Watkins. That duo combined for 11 catches for 178 yards in last year's matchup.

4. A big mark against Kansas City last season was its defense. After adding several draft picks to the unit and making offseason moves like bringing DE Frank Clarke in, what are you hoping to see from the defense in week 1? What are your actual expectations?

CD: The Chiefs ranked 24th in scoring defense and 31st in yards allowed last season, and even a modest improvement could make them a Super Bowl team. A significant improvement in one season within their brand-new 4-3 scheme under coordinator Steve Spagnuolo might be too much for the club to expect.

The Chiefs tied for the league lead with 52 sacks last season, so pressure on the quarterback alone won't make things better without a drastically improved secondary. Last year's defense couldn't get a stop in third down and routinely broke down in the red zone. Improve those two situational results, and the defense could hold up its end of the bargain.

5. If you had to pick one player from each team who could end up deciding the game in your opinion, who is it?

CD: When the Chiefs get Kelce involved in the game plan, they win with much greater frequency. Over the past five seasons they're 26-9 when he gains 70 or more yards through the air, and just 27-17 when he's under that total. What's more, the Chiefs are 13-4 when he goes for 100 or more yards, and they lost those games by a combined 11 points. Andy Reid offenses always run through the tight end, and it's no different with Mahomes at quarterback.

If Nick Foles protects the football, the Jaguars can hold on for the win. Blake Bortles torched the Chiefs for 430 yards through the air last season, but the four interceptions and lost fumble undermined any hope for a win. Foles doesn't need to do everything by himself – he can rely upon the ground game to sustain long drives and keep the ball away from the Chiefs while the defense tries to slow Mahomes. But if Foles turns the ball over, it's disaster for the Jaguars.

6. Final prediction?

CD: The Chiefs have scored 25 or more points in 18-straight games, and they will match the NFL record set by the 2012-13 Broncos if the make it 19 in a row. They get it done, holding on for a 31-24 win.

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