PFF Formula Projects Jaguars’ Gardner Minshew As 28th Best QB in 2020

For the Jacksonville Jaguars to resemble anything close to a winning football team in 2020, they will need second-year quarterback Gardner Minshew to take a big step forward and make it clear that he is worthy of being the team's starting quarterback moving into the future.

Last season, the sixth-round rookie was able to step in for an injured Nick Foles in Week 1 and lead the Jaguars to a .500 record as a starter in two different stints, going 6-6. Minshew led all rookie quarterbacks in wins despite starting just 12 games, eclipsing the figures set by first round quarterbacks Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins.

During Minshew's productive though sometimes rocky rookie season, the mustachioed passer from Washington State completed over 60% of his passes for 3,271 yards and 21 touchdowns to just six interceptions. Minshew's performances as a rookie were far more impressive than the ones Foles put forth, which resulted in Minshew earning the Jaguars' trust as their signal-caller for 2020.

But how will Minshew stack up this year in comparison to the rest of the league's quarterbacks? According to Pro Football Focus, he may still have a long way to go until he establishes himself as a bonafide starter.

"As we’ve done before, we are using Bayesian Updating as the basis of our analysis, which yields a career posterior mean and a posterior distribution (which describes the uncertainty) for each quarterback. This helps us to get better predictions compared to using just the data from last season," PFF wrote.

According to PFF's model, the organization projects Minshew as the league's 28th best quarterback in 2020, just behind Nick Foles, Joe Burrow, Dwayne Haskins, Teddy Bridewater, and Daniel Jones. PFF does project Minshew to have a better season than Drew Lock, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Jarrett Stidham, and Justin Herbert.

PFF also gave Minshew a 0.2% chance at being the league's top quarterback, a 3% chance to be a top-5 quarterback, a 9% chance to be a top-10 quarterback, a 22% chance to be a top-16 quarterback, and a 28% chance to be among the worst five quarterbacks.

Considering PFF has sung Minshew's praises over and over again this offseason, it is worth noting the group has a formula which suggests his 2020 outlook may not be quite as positive. In recent weeks, PFF has lauded Minshew for his ability as a deep passer, his anticipating/touch throws, and his ability to scramble, though it is clear the analytics state that there should be some caution when projecting Minshew's sophomore season.

The key to Minshew's performance in 2020 will be his development under new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden and new quarterbacks coach Ben McAdoo, two former head coaches who have years of experience working with quarterbacks. If those two can help Minshew iron out his inconsistencies, there is a very real chance he performs much better than PFF's projection.

"He has shown a skillset where he can sit in a pocket, step up, make things happen outside the pocket. He’s accurate, he’s tough and obviously he’s a great leader so he’s got the intangibles you want in a quarterback," Gruden said in May.

"Now he’s got to get to know the team, get to know the offense a little bit so we can all gel together.”