Ranking AFC South's Starting QBs: Where Does Jaguars' Gardner Minshew Land?

As we continue to march toward the beginning of the 2020 NFL season, we at JaguarReport have opted to begin taking a look at the likely starting units for each AFC South team. Among the Jaguars, Colts, Titans, and Texans, which team has the best signal-caller? The best wide receiver group? The best pass-rushing tandems?

In this edition, we look at each of the teams starting quarterbacks to rank the four starting passers in the division. Only one of the four teams in the AFC South (Houston) will return its 2019 Week 1 starter at quarterback, though Jacksonville and Tennessee will be running it back with the quarterbacks who ended last season behind center.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts went the free agent route and signed longtime Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to replace Jacoby Brissett in the short-term. Put it all together, and the AFC South's quarterback group has a solid mix of youthfulness and veteran experience, with three of the starting quarterbacks having playoff experience and Pro Bowls to their name.

In our ranking of the division's quarterbacks for the 2020 season, we are weighing both what the passers have done in the past but also what can be expected from them moving forward and what trajectory they are on in their career.

Without further ado, here is how we rank the AFC South's four starting quarterbacks for next season.

No. 1: Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson

This one was automatic. The only certified franchise quarterback in the division, no team in the AFC South is better off at quarterback today than the Texans are with Deshaun Watson. Ever since Houston drafted Watson with the No. 12 pick in the 2017 NFL Draft (with an assist from the Jaguars), Houston has been the team to beat in the division, largely because they have had far and away the best quarterback.

Watson has set numerous records in his first three seasons in the NFL. Last season, the 24-year-old signal-caller became the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 400 yards and five touchdowns with five incompletions or fewer in one game. He also became the first player in NFL history to surpass 9,000 career passing yards and 1,000 career rushing yards in his first 36 career games, and helped lead Houston to its second-consecutive AFC South title.

Through three seasons, including an injury-shortened rookie year, Watson has compiled a 24-13 regular season record. In that span, he has completed 66.8% of his passes for 9,716 yards (8.1 yards per attempt) and 71 touchdowns to just 29 interceptions. Add in the fact that Watson is one of the NFL's best mobile quarterbacks thanks to 1,233 career rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, and Houston is in good hands at quarterback.

No. 2: Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

Last year's Comeback Player of the Year, Ryan Tannehill is set to lead the Titans into the battle for the AFC South in 2020 after signing a four-year extension worth $118 million, including $62 million in guarantees this offseason. While there was logical and justified skepticism about Tannehill upon his entering into the Titans' lineup to replace Marcus Mariota last year, Tannehill did more than enough to convince the Titans that he is the best short-term answer at the position.

Starting 10 games and appearing in 12 last season, Tannehill threw for 2,742 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions to go along with 43 carries for 185 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns. Tannehill also led the league and set franchise-records with a 117.5 quarterback rating and 9.6 yards per attempt, numbers that reflect the transformation of the Titans' offense once Tannehill entered the picture.

After going 7-3 as a starter in the regular season and taking the Titans to the AFC Championship following a road win over No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens, there is a decent amount of hype for Tannehill entering his first full season as Tennessee's starter. Tannehill isn't exactly close to Watson in terms of pure talent or playmaking ability, but he is a good fit for the Titans' scheme and he meshes well with their athletic group of skill players. He is helped a good deal by players such as Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown, and it needs to be considered that the Titans largely leaned on Henry in big moments last year, but Tannehill did just enough to edge out one of his peers for the No. 2 ranking.

Ryan Tannehill finds rookie AJ Brown for a 91-yard TD

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/wC1WvVJErv
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 8, 2019

No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew II

The gap between Tannehill and Gardner Minshew II isn't large here. The two are nearly interchangeable, and the gap between them is significantly smaller than the gap between Watson and Tannehill. With that said, Minshew comes in at No. 3 here in part due to his lack of experience and in part due to stretches of inconsistent play in an otherwise exciting rookie season.

Minshew's performance in 2019 was arguably the best of any rookie quarterback, and it was unquestionably the best season any Jaguars rookie quarterback has ever had. In 12 starts (14 appearances) Minshew compiled a 6-6 record completed over 60% of his passes for for 3,271 passing yards, 21 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions to go along with 67 carries for 344 rushing yards. He won Rookie of the Week seven times in 2019, making him the only rookie to win it more than once last year. Minshew's pass completion percentage of 88% in Week 1 was also the highest of any player making his debut in NFL history (minimum 15 pass attempts, since at least 1950), and also the highest single-game pass completion percentage in Jaguars history.

All together, Minshew far outplayed his sixth-round draft slot. There were stretches of play where he fell into lulls, but this can largely be attributed to factors such as inexperience, a poor team around him, and the fact that he often had to switch between backup and starting quarterback. Minshew could easily leap Tannehill in this list in 2020 if he takes a step forward, though a lack of development could also make his tenure as a starter a short one.

✨MINSHEW MAGIC✨

The best plays from @GardnerMinshew5's rookie year! pic.twitter.com/Czl0kuu47d
— NFL (@NFL) February 21, 2020

No. 4: Indianapolis Colts QB Philip Rivers

Coming off arguably the worst year of his long and impressive career, it is hard to put Philip Rivers much higher on this list if you are simply factoring in 2020 and recent history. Rivers has, obviously, had the best career of any of the four quarterbacks, but he has entered the twilight of his career and struggled more in 2019 than Watson, Tannehill, or Minshew did.

Rivers, 38, will be walking into a good situation with the Colts thanks to an assortment of playmakers at receiver, running back, and tight end, and the Colts also boast one of the league's most dominant offensive lines. Add in his history with head coach Frank Reich, and there aren't many situations better suited for the 38-year-old passer. Still, the Colts will need to help Rivers return back to old form instead of what he showed in 2019 when he completed 66% of passes for 4,615 yards and 23 touchdowns with 20 interceptions.

Rivers has the experience the other quarterbacks in the division don't, but immobility and 32 interceptions over the last two seasons knock him down a good bit. He will one day have a case for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but it is hard to envision him as one of the AFC South's best quarterbacks this year.

Add us as a preferred source on Google