Simulation Paints Gloomy Picture For Rest of Jaguars 2020 Season

The first 12 weeks of the NFL season haven't been very forgiving for the Jaguars. And odds are, the final five weeks won't be much better.

The 1-10 Jaguars are well on their way to having the worst record in franchise history. While past Jaguars teams have played worse on Sundays, this team is the first to ever lose 10 straight games in one season (a franchise record). But what are the odds of the 2020 Jaguars being the first in team history to finish 1-15?

“There’s no doubt that we are going to try to win every single game that we play, and I can tell you that. That’s not a question so whatever we have to do to win, we’re going to be able to do," Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone said on Monday.

"I think that getting these guys healthy, getting them to play, getting them back, we’re holding out hope for some of these guys to come back to help us from an IR standpoint and as soon as they’re ready to go we’re going to bring them back and play. There’s no doubt that’s the direction that we’re headed as coaches and players.”

Wolverine Studios, a PC sports video game developer that has produced other simulations such as one of the NCAA Tournament last spring, has run 100 simulations of the rest of Jacksonville's season -- and not many point to the Jaguars finishing with many more wins than they currently have.

“Here was our methodology for running the simulations. First we took our simulation engine, Draft Day Sports: Pro Football 2021 that was created by Wolverine Studios, and used a community created mod as a starting point," said Gary Gorski, President of Wolverine Studios.

"From there we modified it so that we had players on the proper teams, adjusted some players based on their performance this season and tried to make everything just right as to simulate the final six weeks of the season to see how things end up for the Jags. We also decided to prevent new injuries from occurring in the final six weeks as we didn’t want outcomes determined by something as unpredictable as injuries. We ran the simulation 100 times."

Jacksonville faces several tough opponents down the stretch of the 2020 season. The 5-6 Minnesota Vikings may not have a great record but they have some of the best offensive players in the league and present a lot of challenges, while playoff teams such as the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, and Indianapolis Colts are all on the docket.

With that said, the Jaguars could have a favorable matchup when they play the struggling Chicago Bears in Week 16. The Bears have lost five straight and have one of the worst offenses in the league, which could give the Jaguars a slight chance to pull off a home win before 2020 concludes.

"The best shot for victory comes in Week 16 when they host the Bears. In 60% of our simulations the Jags were able to pick up a victory here in their final home game of the season. The Bears are struggling losers of their last five going into Week 13 and it seems likely the wheels just continue to fall off for them," Gorski said.

Wolverine Studios has given the Jaguars the following chances to win each of their final games:

@ Minnesota (19%)
Tennessee (6%)
@ Baltimore (8%)
Chicago (60%)
Indianapolis (29%)

"Interestingly enough their second greatest chance for victory comes in Week 17 at Indianapolis," Gorski said.

"Not only did they beat the Colts in Week 1 for their lone season win but our simulation also is taking into account the fact that in some cases the final game was a totally meaningless game for Indy and they would be resting players for the playoffs which in a number of our simulations did skew the chance for back to back victories to close out the season higher than it may have normally been."

If the Jaguars finish 2-14, it would be only the second time in team history and would match their 2012 record. They have finished 3-13 on two different occasions -- 2014 and 2016.

The current Jaguars squad doesn't have nearly as bad as a team as those three teams if you look at point differential but that doesn't matter as much as pure wins and losses. The Jaguars have struggled to find a way to win on Sundays each week this year outside of Week 1, and reality and simulations alike indicate this is unlikely to change over the next month.