What Could Christian McCaffrey's Extension Mean for the Jaguars and Leonard Fournette?

In an era where NFL teams are constantly regretting the decision to give running backs big-money deals, the Carolina Panthers have put the notion to bed in their eyes and backed up the Brinks truck for their own back, Christian McCaffrey.

On Monday, McCaffrey signed a four-year contract extension which made him the highest-paid running back in NFL history only three years after joining the league. For McCaffrey, it was a deal he has earned thanks to dominating performances in each of the last three years and his ability to impact both the running and passing offenses.

Carolina’s Christian McCaffrey is signing a four-year extension, averaging $16 million per year, making him the highest-paid running back in NFL history, sources tell ESPN.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 13, 2020

With McCaffrey now locked up with a mega-extension, could the Jacksonville Jaguars be the next team to make a decision on a star running back?

In the same year the Panthers drafted McCaffrey with the No. 8 overall pick, the Jaguars passed on him and selected LSU running back Leonard Fournette at No. 4 overall. The decision was panned by analysts then considering Fournette was a bruising rusher who would demand 20 to 25 carries a game, while McCaffrey was seen as an all-around talent who could create explosive plays regardless of how he gets the ball.

Three years later, and McCaffrey and Fournette's career have played out a good bit different. While McCaffrey just signed a game-changing deal for running backs, Fournette is left wondering if he will have his fifth-year option picked up by Jacksonville or not, creating the question of if he has a long-term future or not in with the Jaguars.

When it comes to considering how McCaffrey's contract extension may impact Fournette's own future contract, it needs to be considered that McCaffrey has been more durable, more productive as both a runner and receiver, and has scored 20 more touchdowns. All in all, McCaffrey has been a more valuable NFL player than Fournette, so it is reasonable for him to not only get a new contract before Fournette, but for his deal to dwarf any potential deal Fournette may obtain.

Player	Christian McCaffrey (48 games)	Leonard Fournette (36 games)
Rushing Yards	2,920	2,631
Rushing Average	4.7	4.0
Rushing Touchdowns	24	17
Receptions	303	134
Receiving Yards	2,523	1,009
Receiving Touchdowns	15	2

This kind of production from McCaffrey led to him earning a new contract before his rookie deal even expired, while Fournette's has led to the Jaguars having to weigh their options when it comes to the fourth-year running back.

Fournette did have a solid 2019 season, posting career-highs in rushing yards (1152), yards per carry average (4.3), receptions (76), and receiving yards (522 yards). The only area Fournette didn't take a big step forward in was touchdowns, scoring only three on the year. But this followed a subpar season in 2018 and a hit-or-miss rookie season, leading to questions about if there is merit to handing him a new contract.

Instead of a giving Fournette new deal that resembles McCaffrey's, the Jaguars may opt to instead rely on Fournette's fifth-year option, which will have to be either declined or accepted in the following months. The Jaguars could decline to pick up the fifth-year option, but this would mean Fournette would be eligible to be a free agent following the 2020 season.

The salary for the option for players picked within the first 10 picks equals the cost of the transition tender at the player's position when the option is picked up. This means the option is worth the average of the 10 highest salaries at the position.

Since Fournette was the fourth-overall pick, this would apply to him. According to OverTheCap.com, the projected cost of the transition tag for running backs in 2020 is $8,483,000.

Fournette has been vocal in the past about his admiration for Ezekiel Elliot and Le'Veon Bell fighting for high compensation for running backs, so it is likely he would prefer to land a deal like the one McCaffrey got as opposed to a one-year option or even a franchise tag down the road. This, of course, wouldn't impact the Jaguars' decision much, but it should be noted moving forward.

So with all of the production and option and tag scenarios considered, how does McCaffrey's deal impact Fournette? At the end of the day, it has reset the running back market to a large extent. To pay McCaffrey in the manner Carolina did, and so early in his career, is an almost unprecedented move.

But Fournette simply doesn't compare to McCaffrey in terms of production and impact. While McCaffrey's deal may open the door for other running backs to land huge deals with the team who drafted them, it is unlikely it will mean the same for Fournette and the Jaguars.

For an example of what a Fournette extension may actually look like, Spotrac has a tool in which they determine a player's market value by comparing him to other players at the position with similar production. According to Spotrac, a fair market value deal for Fournette would be roughly a four-year deal worth $27,570,213, which would pay him $6,892,553 manually.

Fournette will want a new deal sooner than later, and seeing a fellow 2017 draftee, who was drafted after him, land such a big deal will likely influence him. But will it influence the Jaguars? Only time will tell, but the production says it is unlikely to do so unless Fournette has a monster 2020 season.

Also congrats to my guy @CMC_22 white men can jump 😂😂😂😂 love you boy pic.twitter.com/P06sS8fcud
— 7⃣ Leonard Fournette (@_fournette) April 14, 2020