What should the expectations be for the rest of Jaguars TE Josh Oliver's rookie season?

Josh Oliver has yet to make his NFL debut due to a hamstring injury.

Ever since suffering what Jacksonville Jaguars head coach called a severe hamstring injury on Aug. 2, Jaguars rookie tight end Josh Oliver has been waiting. 

Waiting to play in his first preseason game. Waiting to participate in a practice as a full-time participant during the regular season. And with Oliver already ruled out for the team's week 5 game against the Carolina Panthers, Oliver is still waiting to make his official NFL debut.

Oliver was a player many were excited about due to him being a third-round selection and being a player made in the the pass-catching mold that most recent Jaguars tight ends simply have not fit. 

Because of this, Oliver's now-two month long injury status has certainly been frustrating. But it is worth noting that not only are hamstring injuries always tricky, but nobody is likely more frustrated than Oliver is himself. 

The athletic and lanky tight end has practiced in limited capacities over the last two weeks in between also being held out of practices for injury reasons. Marrone said on Friday Oliver is progressing to a day-to-day status, but there is still no certainty he plays in week 6 against the New Orleans Saints.

“I hope so. I hope that we can progress now. The three days were good, and I think the next step would be some team reps. And I think once we get to that, then we’ll evaluate the team reps. And then from the team I think we can go ahead and see if he’s going to be able to help us play," Marrone said. 

So, when Oliver does eventually make his NFL debut and join the Jaguars offense, what should the expectations be for the rookie tight end and what factors will decide that?

Past rookie tight end production

When considering what Oliver may be able to produce in a rookie season that has already been cut short, it is wise to look at what some past rookie tight ends who have played in 11 games or less have done. Here are a few that standout that I feel Oliver could produce similarly to.

• Ricky Seals-Jones (2017): 12 receptions for 201 yards and three touchdowns in 10 games played.
• Austin Seferian-Jenkins (2014): 21 receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns in 9 games played.
•  Michael Hoomanawanui (2010): 13 catches for 146 yards and three touchdowns in 8 games played. 

So with Oliver not even being guaranteed to play 11 games this season, I think a fair projection for the rookie out of San Jose State is around 18 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns. 

Historically, rookie tight ends just don't make a lot of noise. And with Oliver missing so much time due to injury, he is going to be at a disadvantage. When he does return it will certainly be a positive development for the Jaguars offense, but expectations may need to be tempered.

The tight ends in front of him

Another factor to consider when thinking about the expectations for Oliver is the players who join him in the tight end room. 

• James O’Shaughnessy: 11 receptions for 96 yards and two touchdowns, each of which have been red zone scores over the last two weeks. He has led the tight ends in snaps this season and has been the unquestioned starter.
• Geoff Swaim: 11 receptions for 56 yards. Swaim has mostly been a blocker and check down target for the Jaguars, a role Oliver is unlikely to fill. 
• Seth DeValve: 0 catches for 0 yards. DeValve has been used as the team's H-back and fullback and has been more of a blocking player than anything. It is likely Oliver could take his spot on the active game day roster. 

So while none of these players are high-impact types of tight ends, each has served an important role in the Jaguars offense. Marrone seems happy with what he has gotten out of the group so far as well.

"I think all of the tight ends, James [O’Shaughnessy] has done a nice job, Geoff [Swaim] has done a good job, all of those guys. They’ve really helped us from the standpoint of they’re giving us quality snaps," he said Friday. 

"I think that we’ve gotten some good targets. We’ve gotten some good production. I think for what that group is that we’re getting production out of them, both on offense and special teams."

Oliver will have to step into one of these roles for the offense when his time comes. Based off of his college tape, he is the most naturally gifted player in the group and he is a true pass-catcher, something the other tight ends on the team simply aren't. 

Oliver's time will come eventually, but it is worth giving the talented young player the right expectations.

Until then, the waiting continues. But it is worth remembering that while the wait may soon come to an end, the next chapter in Oliver's story could be waiting period.