Win Your Fantasy Draft by Picking Jets' WR1

Making the case for Gang Green's No. 17 as a Top 15 selection

Author:
Ralph Ventre
Publish date:
Aug 14, 2023 9:33 AM EDT

In this story:

Garrett Wilson fantasy football enthusiasts can breathe easy and draft away.

Late last week, the New York Jets' WR1 practiced for the first time since July 27 when Wilson suffered a minor ankle injury while going for a ball up the sideline.

Even while temporarily sidelined, Wilson continued climbing up fantasy football draft boards as a potential Top 20 selection in both PPR and standard leagues. SI Fantasy's Michael Fabiano has the second-year pro as the No. 10 overall receiver while NFL Media's Adam Rank lifted the Jets' top pass-catcher all the way up to the overall WR5 slot.

Top 5 WR status is certainly in play for the physically skilled pass-catcher with smooth route running ability.

Coming off the 2022 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, the expectations were naturally high for Wilson. Then, the Aaron Rodgers trade happened.

"He’s so dynamic with his feet," said Rodgers of his new WR1 six days into training camp. "I think if he adds five or ten more pounds of muscle, he’s going to be really, really difficult to handle, but in the meantime, he’s got all the skill set you want, plus the attitude and the work ethic and the character, which you really appreciate."

In addition to automatically making the Jets' offense a more potent unit, Rodgers's arrival instantly boosts Wilson's fantasy value. The sheer fact that a future Hall-of-Famer will be the one throwing passes to the promising young WR1 is plenty of reason for excitement.

If Wilson went for 1,103 yards on 83 receptions with last year's collection of Jets' quarterbacks, then how high does his statistical ceiling rise due to the addition of a four-time NFL MVP?

Wilson has the potential to put up numbers comparable to the "other 17" that Rodgers played with in Green Bay, so let's look at the areas where Gang Green's No. 17 has realistic potential for substantial increases.

First, Wilson caught fewer than 57 percent of his 143 targets as a rookie. A bump up to a 70 percent catch rate, provided his volume of targets remain the same, would mean 100+ receptions for the Jets' primary receiving threat.

One has to believe that Wilson will see a higher share of more "catchable" passes from Rodgers than he did from the team's collection of quarterbacks in 2022. Over his career, Rodgers has displayed top-level ball placement, delivery and timing. Wilson should be able to pull in more targets while working with a more poised and accurate passer.

While Wilson's catch rate was somewhat low, so was his touchdown total. Just by the law of averages, a highly-skilled WR1 should be able to exceed the four TD receptions he made as a rookie.

Then, there's the idea that an improved Jets' offense will naturally score more points than last year's unit, meaning Wilson will have more chances to reach the end zone. Over the last two seasons with Rodgers in Green Bay, receiver Allen Lazard averaged one touchdown every 2.1 games.

Wilson is not yet at the level of six-time Pro Bowler Davante Adams, but it's important to note that Adams reached double digits in touchdown receptions in five of his last six season with Rodgers.

In 2020, Adams caught 18 TD passes in 14 regular season games. If Wilson can score at half that rate, he'll post a double-digit total in 2023.

"Davante is in a category by himself, still, but that 17 [Wilson] reminds me of the other 17, as far as his ability of getting out of breaks and his quick twitch at the line of scrimmage, for sure," said Rodgers at the start of training camp.

It's a lofty goal considering the performance earned All-Pro First Team status, but Adams's 2021 regular season stat line should be in Wilson's crosshairs.

With Rodgers at QB and Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator, Adams caught 123 of 169 targets in 16 games during the 2021 campaign. He finished with 1,553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.

Adams logged 100+ receiving yards eight times and never made fewer than four receptions in 16 appearances.

"I’ve seen Aaron work with, just going against him, and what he was able to do with Davante and how in sync they were. It was more than just go balls, it was just a nod and they knew exactly what was going to happen next," said head coach Robert Saleh after Rodgers and Wilson hooked up on two notable practice plays. "I’ll speak for Aaron on this, and that I can imagine that there’s even a greater level of continuity that can be gained, but I love the direction it’s [rapport with Wilson] going and those two throws were pretty darn cool."

The Wilson fantasy hype is real and justified. Listening to Rodgers speak about his top receiver only affirms that belief.

"Some of these plays out here, we’re not going to take him for granted, but it’s also Garrett. So, you almost expected him to make some of these plays," said Rodgers.

Recently slotted at No. 74 overall on the annual NFL Top 100 Players list, Wilson's average fantasy draft position should reach Top 15 status.

Make the Jets' WR1, your fantasy team's WR1 and win your draft.